Hornby's 2013 Announcements

[Oldddudders]

Whilst perhaps not directly related to Hornby, I can certainly see this being an issue with the Bachmann Blue Pullman. 6 coaches is too many to provide together IMO. As stated above, many modellers have platforms which are shorter than they would like, and/or can't afford the full set (at least not all in one go!). In the past it's been usual practice for the manufacturers to release the end vehicles as a set, with perhaps one or two centre carriages , with the rest available separately to suit the purchaser's space/wallet - this was how the Hornby & Lima HSTs, Hornby APT & Javelin & Triang BP were all released this way and I'm sure all sold more as a result than if they were only available as full sets...

Not really disagreeing with you, but the Midland Pullman only called at Cheadle Heath, and the Brighton Belle didn't call intermediately at all (at least in peacetime), so platform length is a little less important than fiddle-yard/cassette length for most modellers, perhaps. I'm sure Hornby have the better offer here, with a pair of motor cars sold separately from the trailers.

[Guest Phil]

I am surprised that Hornby decided to make the 2BIL as this was not in the top 50 of the 2011 00 gauge wish list. This was Pat Hammond's British Model Railway Wish List 2011 for the Collector's Club of Great Britain. Only 31 people voted for the 2BIL. Previous emus have met with poor sales with the Hornby-Dublo emu being a prime example. According to page 142 of Pat Hammond's Tri-ang Railways The Story of Rovex Volume 1 1950-1965 the R156/R225 4SUB emu was never very popular with only 30,000 being made over six years.This compares with 104,000 Princesses being produced between 1953 and 1961.

 

I would have thought Hornby would make more sales by producing the LSWR 700 which was 13th in the wish list.59 people voted for it. This would fill a useful gap for modellers of the Southern Railway and would enable LSWR modellers to run a complete train service with the M7 and T9. Perhaps a rival manufacturer will beat Hornby in producing a 700.

 

The other Hornby 2013 new releases seem to be what people want although many people on this site seem to want better quality models.

 

Have to disagree Robin. I believe Margate saw the fantastic opportunity of following Bachmann's lead of 3rd rail EMUs. They seem to have botched the 4 VEP from all accounts, but undeterred they have committed to the 2 BIL as a follow on. The 2 BIL has all the credentials. A nice little two car train, with just two bodyshells to produce. The vehicle style is very much what Hornby are about, and it matches well with the steam era favoured by many modellers / collectors.

 

The "700" on the contrary is an anonymous black 0-6-0 - the kind Hornby don't seem fussed about. The one black 0-6-0 that Hornby produced (the Q1) seems to have been massively overproduced with stocks lingering on dusty LHS shelves.

 

No Robin, I believe Hornby made the right choice with the 2 BIL, if only to restore their credibility with 3rd rail EMUs. Not sure what those "Design clever" roof vents will be like though !!!!

[S.A.C Martin]

To be frank, I am sure there are many people around the world who are glad the 2-BIL came second. They've upped the weight on the standard 4VEP bogie and removed those traction tyre wheelsets (which were fitted in a rather hit and miss way in terms of QC if the 4VEP thread is anything to go by. On my model they were arranged on one axle, on another example it was two tyres on diagonals, on another two tyres both on the same side of the train).

 

Hopefully this will have solved the major headache of the 4VEP which was the thoroughly erratic running some of us on here experienced. I remain bitterly disappointed by the 4VEP, but Hornby have more than made up for it in my eyes with their fantastic Thompson O1. 

 

You have to give them credit where it is due, and for me, the Hornby Thompson O1 model was the release of 2012. Have not ever experienced a model as smooth running, quiet or powerful as the Hornby O1 is. I rang out superlative after superlative on my blog for the O1, and it still doesn't quite capture my enthusiasm for that model and its superb quality.

 

It's a brilliant model, let's leave it at that.

[The Stationmaster]

Looks like 'design clever' might be taking off as a marketing term; saw an advert in the 'paper today for Dacia cars - which are 'cleverly designed' (and low priced.   I wonder if the door handles are pressed as part of the body panel?)

[RJS1977]

Not really disagreeing with you, but the Midland Pullman only called at Cheadle Heath, and the Brighton Belle didn't call intermediately at all (at least in peacetime), so platform length is a little less important than fiddle-yard/cassette length for most modellers, perhaps. I'm sure Hornby have the better offer here, with a pair of motor cars sold separately from the trailers.

 

Again, not disagreeing with you, but I think both the Belle and the BP are going to end up on a lot of layouts that aren't strict models of the Midland and Brighton lines (I daresay even on the same layout!) - and quite a few of these will involve termini....

[Roy P]

I think it'll be interesting come February to compare the Bachmann announcements with Hornby. I've been very much encouraged by most of that coming out of Hornby (with a few concerns, aired previously here), but I have a suspicion that we may yet hear a completely different message coming out of Barwell....Competition in this industry has been very good for the consumer.....Completely different manufacturing ethos at work at Margate compared to Barwell.

Last year the Bachmann announcements were made at the Model and Hobby Show in mid-March. The website for Coventry Motor Museum states that the trade show will run from Sunday 10th March to Tuesday 12th. Sunday / Monday will be trade only and Tuesday a “public day” for “collectors’ club members”. Can we safely assume that this is the Bachmann Collectors Club and not Sindy? (Sindy is 50 this year – it’s been in the papers!)

I acknowledge that this is the Hornby thread and not Bachmann but I agree, it will be interesting to note if Hornby and Bachmann have a very different outlook for the next eighteen months or so.

Dapol seem to!

I realise that Dapol and Hornby are very different animals. It will be interesting to see who Bachmann will be competing with and the effect that may have on how we feel about Hornby and it's recent showings.

 

RP

[Robin Brasher]

Model emus have been very good investments in the past. In 1965 Hattons was selling the Hornby-Dublo class 501 emu for £2. Now a mint and boxed one is worth between £475 and £1,000. Mint and boxed Tri-ang R156 4SUBs are £110 and Wrenn Brighton Belles are from £250 - £450. Prices from 7th edition of Ramsay's British Model Trains Catalogue. If you cannot find anywhere to run your 2BIL on your layout you can always keep it in a display cabinet out of the sun as an investment.

['CHARD]

 

You should always bear in mind that:

1. The value of investments and any income from them may go down as well as up. 
2. You may not get back all of your original investment.
3. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

[great northern]

Model emus have been very good investments in the past. In 1965 Hattons was selling the Hornby-Dublo class 501 emu for £2. Now a mint and boxed one is worth between £475 and £1,000. Mint and boxed Tri-ang R156 4SUBs are £110 and Wrenn Brighton Belles are from £250 - £450. Prices from 7th edition of Ramsay's British Model Trains Catalogue. If you cannot find anywhere to run your 2BIL on your layout you can always keep it in a display cabinet out of the sun as an investment.

The problem is though Robin that the world has changed greatly in the last forty years. Back then, most toy trains were just that. Very few indeed will have been purchased just to be hidden away in a drawer untouched. We used them, we bruised them and we battered them! Also the Hornby Dublo EMU came out towards the end, and comparatively few were produced, thus enhancing the rarity value. The same applies to a degree with the Wrenn Brighton Belles.

 

Modern day productions are in much smaller runs, but if 504 are produced, and even a third are put away mint boxed, the subsequent value isn't going to be very high, so I entirely agree with Chard's warning above.

[Guest Max Stafford]

Also, forty years ago; a house was something to live in, not a casino to bet your world on. I suspect that in the same context, the 'toy train collecting' bubble is also deflating dramatically.

[Guest Max Stafford]

Also, forty years ago; a house was something to live in, not a casino to bet your world on. I suspect that in the same context, the 'toy train collecting' bubble is also deflating dramatically.

[Oldddudders]

And the BIL does encourage us to find a reason to run it. Adding a little bit of third rail into a branch platform or similar will be a nice achievable goal for some of us. Mine will probably find itself serving the Bachmann Sheffield Park buildings. After all the prototype provided a regular service at  visually-similar Horsted Keynes, via Ardingly, for more than 25 years, and ditto Hassocks for rather longer. All four stations were from the same architect's basic drawings, as were 14 others which didn't see electric trains - but could have done.

[Ravenser]

Model emus have been very good investments in the past. In 1965 Hattons was selling the Hornby-Dublo class 501 emu for £2. Now a mint and boxed one is worth between £475 and £1,000. Mint and boxed Tri-ang R156 4SUBs are £110 and Wrenn Brighton Belles are from £250 - £450. Prices from 7th edition of Ramsay's British Model Trains Catalogue. If you cannot find anywhere to run your 2BIL on your layout you can always keep it in a display cabinet out of the sun as an investment.

 

The 2BIL is ideal for anyone modelling the London end of the South Western Division from the late 30s to the early 70s. Its the ideal - and necessary - train for a model set in the electrified area of the Southern in that period: so if you want your Bulleid Pacifics and King Arthurs to run past 3rd rail electrics - as they did throughout their working lives - this is the model for you. A 700 goods doesn't fill that need, and if you want a Southern 0-6-0 Hornby can sell you a Q1 .

 

Big suburban tanks sell , and Hornby and Bachmann have done very well out of them: the only railway without multiple representatives in this category has been the Southern . That's because on the Southern that niche was filled by EMUs . We now have the missing Maunsell EMU.

 

Since 3rd rail modelling is quite an active and well established niche, and we now have a range of other RTR EMUs which these can legitimately run with , if your period is the 1960s or early 1970s, there is a defined market for them. The 4CEPs have sold , the 2EPBs have sold, the 5BEL seems to have sold, even the 4VEP seems to have sold, and there's every reason to expect this one to sell better than any of them. It should be cheaper than nearly all the others, it has a much longer service life, and it has a wow factor which the BR units didn't really have

 

And , of course, it very squarely targets the Southern steam market. This is an EMU that you can credibly run on a 1930s Southern branchline, at least in the eastern part of Southern territory, never mind next to all your Bulleid Pacifics  post war.

 

And as a final trick, you can run it in blue on a modern image layout.

 

Something that brackets the modern image market and the Southern steam market with a moderately priced model with wow factor that suits modest sized layouts has winner written all over it.

 

The days when CJF could praise Exeter Central as offering "Southern steam uncontaminated by electrics" are gone - many people are very attracted to modelling the electrics

 

I would be very hesitant about the collectors market myself. The secondhand tables are groaning with secondhand Lima , much of it limited edition/collectors certificate releases, and the prices are very low now. £15-25 a loco seems the market, and the certificate might add a fiver to the base price. Not a good omen for the train collector. Hornby aren't going to go bust shortly after releasing this , and judging by the excitement it has generated, and the fact that Maunsell EMUs as a group have featured strongly in wishlist polls in recent years - albeit the vote has fragmented amongst several options - it should sell reasonably well 

[ThaneofFife]

I suspect your take will also be proved incorrect. An early test will be Bachmann's announcement in a couple of months.

 

Paul

 

I should add that there is big difference between my gut feeling and what I would like to see and indeed I agree with you there and hope I have got it very wrong and we will continue to see new model after new model roll out of the factories.........

[The Stationmaster]

Also, forty years ago; a house was something to live in, not a casino to bet your world on. I suspect that in the same context, the 'toy train collecting' bubble is also deflating dramatically.

I do 'like' the post regarding houses but the same is not the case in respect of toy trains as it happens.  Prices do fluctuate from what I see of them at auctions but the SAS 'Trains Galore' auction in December (not just model railways but well over 90% of it by value) grossed its largest amount ever - £350,000 at hammer prices.  The simple answer is that good quality stuff sells fairly well, top quality stuff is fetching higher prices then ever, poor quality stuff does not command high prices and hasn't for some time.  

 

Incidentally I haven't seen a really good HD 2 car electric set go for more then £400 for quite a long time although HD prices seem to have fluctuated quite a lot; you can get one in reasonable condition in a good box for little more then £200 at auction (these are hammer prices so add c.20% to work out what people pay in total).   And as Chard & Great Northern have pointed out modern production doesn't do anything like as well although there are occasional exceptions such as some of the Hornby Bulleid pacifics (presumably produced in small numbers?), and some large scale stuff which seems to do very well.  But as far as mass produced items in the smaller scales are concerned they would generally appear to have represented very poor investment value if that was what they were bought for.

 

Simple tip for anyone collecting or buying anything - only buy it if you like it, not for what you think it will be worth in future.  I doubt if many folk on RMweb - or elsewhere - are likely to share my interest in excursion handbills from Pre-Grouping days or the inter-war years so I don't see them as an investment, just a cost.

[Gilwell Park]

Hi.  I am sure I have read this somewhere but does anybody know what is happening with the Maunsell unmodified open 2nd?  It was deferred to 2013 but does not appear in the catalogue unlike other deferred items. I have one on advance order and would like to know when, or if, I can expect it.

 

Thank you

 

Roger.

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

 While there has been just the one announcement for N, and that done very quietly; anyone got a handle on what else they might venture? I can see a subject like the P2 being followed by an N version if the OO model proves popular, simply because there is no competition for it, existing or likely. Could this shape Hornby's future OO plans, subjects with no current or likely competition in N, thus offering the potential for more sales from the same product research?

...I find it hard to believe the packing was an issue ...

 Ever been involved in packaging, and specifically the tests to prove its performance? If not, then you may well find it hard to believe.

 

A guy I have great respect for first described it to me as 'one of the dark arts' when explaining the bind that packaging represents in design for performance. It's one of the most constrained engineering activities. Marketing want the packed product appearance, and the unpacked product, to conform to a whole lot of appearance and perception requirements. Production want the packaging material to cost as little as possible to purchase, available just in time, and cheap to use at a match to output rate. Shipping want the outside dimensions to conform to a packing standard. Engineering have a shopping list of all the protection that the packaging must deliver to protect the product. Sales want the product the moment it is ready to ship, which means it has to be in its packaging. So that's good on all fronts, cheap as possible, and timely in every respect.

 

A thorough engineering programme for product development through to sales volume such that profit is achieved, intends to meet all those requirements of the packaging from the start, but here's the pinch. No proving tests of the production item in the packaging is possible until that production item is available to test. And some of those tests do take time: if the product is high enough value then computer modelling may have said the packaging design will perform, but the prediction is only as good as the modelling in the software. The only way to be sure is to rattle the physical item about for real - and then it may be that something unexpected happens. The time for a revision and re-evaluation of the packaging at that point is unfortunately all delay; there may be a considerable volume of product in the now proven under-performing packaging - we are operating on the success assumption you know - all of which has to be hauled back (maybe in the containers already consigned to the docks) into some facility for the packaging revision to be cut in ahead of shipping: it happens, oh, it happens.

[Oldddudders]

Hi.  I am sure I have read this somewhere but does anybody know what is happening with the Maunsell unmodified open 2nd?  It was deferred to 2013 but does not appear in the catalogue unlike other deferred items. I have one on advance order and would like to know when, or if, I can expect it.

 

Thank you

 

Roger.

http://www.ehattons.com/51190/Hornby_R4538_Maunsell_unconverted_open_third_class_coach_in_BR_green_/StockDetail.aspx

[Jol Wilkinson]

Hi.  I am sure I have read this somewhere but does anybody know what is happening with the Maunsell unmodified open 2nd?  It was deferred to 2013 but does not appear in the catalogue unlike other deferred items. I have one on advance order and would like to know when, or if, I can expect it.

 

Thank you

 

Roger.

Wouldn't that question be better directed to Hornby?

[Dunsignalling]

I would be very hesitant about the collectors market myself. The secondhand tables are groaning with secondhand Lima , much of it limited edition/collectors certificate releases, and the prices are very low now. £15-25 a loco seems the market, and the certificate might add a fiver to the base price. Not a good omen for the train collector. Hornby aren't going to go bust shortly after releasing this , and judging by the excitement it has generated, and the fact that Maunsell EMUs as a group have featured strongly in wishlist polls in recent years - albeit the vote has fragmented amongst several options - it should sell reasonably well

Don't forget, too that modifications of any kind are anathema to the sort of collectors who pay top money. Running your 2-BIL or opening it up to add passengers, changing the headcode or adding an impression of brake dust to the bogies will ruin its investment potential forever.

 

If you really believe in r-t-r models as investments (rather than using the idea as a spurious excuse for spending too much on your hobby) you shouldn't even open the box.

 

I purchase models for my own enjoyment and modify them to my satisfaction; I am not creating a hoard to be cashed in by my executors.

 

Demand for Lima models has collapsed for a number of reasons but primarily, not enough people collect it. The market for Hornby Dublo is much larger, well established and, I suspect, generally populated with fairly affluent individuals. However, nostalgia is a major driver for all the HD collectors I know and one has to be well over 50 for that to be strong motivation.

 

Even if it is not already happening, established collectors will eventually begin to die off faster than new ones with deep pockets take their place. A changing balance of supply and demand will cause a gradual decline in values for all but the very top-notch models and rarities.

[frobisher]

Whoever's next will have Post 2000 on this thread . . .

Apealling...

[frobisher]

But better...

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cWnmCu3U09w

['CHARD]

You lot are all out of sync

[Guest Belgian]

You lot are all out of sync

That's cheating . . .

[Obi-Jiff Kenobi]

It's people like you what cause unrest!