Hornby's 2013 Announcements

[Guest Belgian]

And, of course, as a freight loco, the O1 comes in any colour you like so long as it is unlined black whereas the Compound has full lining on a locomotive with a quite complex shape.

That's why I deliberately compared the plain black Compound with the O1.

 

I notice no one else has agreed with my praise for Hornby.

 

JE

[Dunsignalling]

That's why I deliberately compared the plain black Compound with the O1.

 

I notice no one else has agreed with my praise for Hornby.

 

JE

Sorry, I hadn't noticed that..........must read slower.

[The Stationmaster]

I don't think Hornby are so much worried about their super-detail models not selling at all as by the (more likely) prospect that each of us might spend the same on fewer of them as prices rise.  

 

As the highest-volume producer in the market, Hornby have the most to lose from greater customer selectivity. .

 

Many Hornby releases are repeats of earlier models with alternative identities and the cost of tooling them will have already been covered. All other things being equal, these models should generate a greater profit-per-unit. However, such sales are likely to be much more vulnerable to selectivity than those of completely new items.

 

We currently have escalating prices set against a background of customer resources that are not keeping up and most (presumably including Hornby) expect this to continue for some years, Come 2014, would I purchase yet another Bulleid Pacific from Hornby in preference to (say) an S.15 from another maker, or the average LNER fan prioritise a dozenth Hornby A4 over his first or second Heljan O2?

 

The other players in the market seem to operate (at least initially) on the basis of lower volumes per item, so Bachmann et al may not need to follow the Hornby path over detail. More to the point, I would not expect them to trumpet it if they did!

 

JDS

I think this gets to the crux of the matter - Hornby thinks like a volume producer - because that is its background.  I understand that at one time it was not prepared to consider a run of less than 5,000 identical items as a commission, hence it got very little commissioned business.  This has clearly changed with the two Swindon 'specials' - firstly with 7037 which basically was a variant of a model designed for numerous variants and this year with 4003 which seems to have a slightly different origin  (reportedly suggested to Hornby by Swindon Steam museum) but with Hornby then picking up the ball and producing two 'Star' variants of its own.  So they have moved a bit - they'll now do a run of 1,000 for the right customer (and price of course).

 

We don't know their numbers  but we can perhaps judge the keen modeller/collector combined market at a particular price level from commissioned models - and Hornby know exactly how many locos Steam have commissioned of course.  So it could well be that part of their strategy is based on not being wed to the lower volume high detail, demanding research and approvals process, higher price range model but to make the move for volume instead - back to their old familiar ground, and heading for the sort of ground which the 'toy company' managerial imports at Hornby Group are more familiar with and/or feel more comfortable with.  And if others want to tap the high detail lower volume market area let them get on with it in these times of financial stringency.  

 

And of course simpler production methods probably allow for more new models to be added in each catalogue year - and that must be an important point in a world where 'new' always seems to be in demand and to move off the shelves quickly.

[GWRLMSLNER]

I will give Hornby praise for their Grange it's a superb model but that's it, my preference is for the ones in the blue boxes.  

81C  

 

I have spent between £600 and £1000 per year on the railway over the last 6 years and offset much of this by selling older stock. The Grange (s) have been part of the renewal and run as well as anything on the layout if not better than others. However, a list of sales and purchases shows that most sales are of Hornby items and most purchases are Bachmann. This relates to locomotives but coaches are virtually all Hornby models replacing Mainline ones etc. In total the actual expenditure is about 40% Hornby to 60% Bachmann. This would have been unheard of only ten years ago when I was still buying Hornby with a few of the new Replica Railways etc getting in on the act.

 

Clearly other modellers will have their own story to tell but if my experience after 60 years of modelling (Hornby Dublo set in 1952) is a reflection of the changes over the past ten years then Hornby has to try something else. This appears to be exactly what it is doing and good luck to it. Now can I afford to sell my 'B' sets and Auto Trailer for new ones - yes if Hornby bring them up to the standard of their other coaching stock.

 

John

[Robin Brasher]

I am surprised that Hornby decided to make the 2BIL as this was not in the top 50 of the 2011 00 gauge wish list. This was Pat Hammond's British Model Railway Wish List 2011 for the Collector's Club of Great Britain. Only 31 people voted for the 2BIL. Previous emus have met with poor sales with the Hornby-Dublo emu being a prime example. According to page 142 of Pat Hammond's Tri-ang Railways The Story of Rovex Volume 1 1950-1965 the R156/R225 4SUB emu was never very popular with only 30,000 being made over six years.This compares with 104,000 Princesses being produced between 1953 and 1961.

 

I would have thought Hornby would make more sales by producing the LSWR 700 which was 13th in the wish list.59 people voted for it. This would fill a useful gap for modellers of the Southern Railway and would enable LSWR modellers to run a complete train service with the M7 and T9. Perhaps a rival manufacturer will beat Hornby in producing a 700.

 

The other Hornby 2013 new releases seem to be what people want although many people on this site seem to want better quality models.

[Dunsignalling]

I am surprised that Hornby decided to make the 2BIL as this was not in the top 50 of the 2011 00 gauge wish list. This was Pat Hammond's British Model Railway Wish List 2011 for the Collector's Club of Great Britain. Only 31 people voted for the 2BIL. Previous emus have met with poor sales with the Hornby-Dublo emu being a prime example. According to page 142 of Pat Hammond's Tri-ang Railways The Story of Rovex Volume 1 1950-1965 the R156/R225 4SUB emu was never very popular with only 30,000 being made over six years.This compares with 104,000 Princesses being produced between 1953 and 1961.

 

I would have thought Hornby would make more sales by producing the LSWR 700 which was 13th in the wish list.59 people voted for it. This would fill a useful gap for modellers of the Southern Railway and would enable LSWR modellers to run a complete train service with the M7 and T9. Perhaps a rival manufacturer will beat Hornby in producing a 700.

 

The other Hornby 2013 new releases seem to be what people want although many people on this site seem to want better quality models.

Bachmann took the real risk by producing the 4-CEP. Hornby saw how popular they were and jumped on the bandwagon with the 4-VEP which was insufficiently thought through. Now they are combining the experience gained there with their accumulated knowledge of SR Maunsell carriage design and the 2-BIL should be very good as a result.

 

However, there are signs that the EMU market still has limits with at least one retailer clearing out unsold Bachmann 4-CEPs at not much over half rrp a couple of months ago. Repeat models of a numerous steam prototype would just be getting into their stride at this point.

[Oldddudders]

That's why I deliberately compared the plain black Compound with the O1.

 

I notice no one else has agreed with my praise for Hornby.

 

JE

I think the C Class was my first Bachmann UK loco purchased new - the Ns and the 2-6-2 tank were all ebay. I have one of their Bulleid coaches, and that's enough, thanks. Contrast that with a handful of mostly-new T9s, ditto M7s - and at least 40 Maunsells. The manufacturer who produces what I want will probably get my business.

[ThaneofFife]

Well if you havent had your long awaited new release in the last x number of years then I think the wait could be a bit longer in the coming years compared to the sausage machine way weve had release on release churned out in recent times.  If as I suspect peoples buying habits are changing in the same way as my own and less emphasis is put on impulse buys then future sales are likely to slow down or be spread out over a longer time period.   This surely will influence manufacturers with their decisions on what to release as well as how often to make new releases ie; instead of 3 all new models a year, maybe this will be pegged to 2 or even 1 which isnt disimilar to the 1970s when most of the time the catalogue featured reliveries.  Price rises wont help either - it will be interesting to see what the competitions (like Bachmann) plans are this year for its list prices after last years 12.5%. 

[Fenman]

I am surprised that Hornby decided to make the 2BIL as this was not in the top 50 of the 2011 00 gauge wish list.

The first place "primary interest" expressed in the 2011 Wishlist poll was BR(SR) 1958-1967. Judging by the enthusiastic reception on here to the news of the 2Bil, it's not going to sell too badly at all.

 

One of the problems of market research is that in many instances people don't actually know what they want until they're offered it. If they're wise, polls are just one tool that a company will use when setting its future programme.

 

Rather than criticise Hornby, shouldn't we be welcoming their attempt to open up a new niche (you remember, just like everyone praised Bachmann for doing the same with their BR(SR) emu)?

 

Paul

[Fenman]

In total the actual expenditure is about 40% Hornby to 60% Bachmann.

 

Clearly other modellers will have their own story to tell

Always dangerous to extrapolate a trend from personal experience but... my pre-orders on Hattons are the reverse of your expenditure, at just over 2:1 in Hornby's favour. Although I probably am less loco-centric than many, and Hornby score heavily with their coaching stock.

 

Paul

 

 

 

Edit: apparently I don't know the difference between a hyphen and an equals sign.

[Fenman]

I think the wait could be a bit longer in the coming years compared to the sausage machine way weve had release on release churned out in recent times.  ... instead of 3 all new models a year, maybe this will be pegged to 2 or even 1 which isnt disimilar to the 1970s when most of the time the catalogue featured reliveries. 

But I understand most of the sales are to be made from the novelty value of a new release, with reliveries being less strong sellers albeit with (I guess) a higher profit margin. Are you not confusing the situation in the overall market with what is in the best interests of individual manufacturers? By continuing to introduce new models into the pipeline, they ensure initial bulk sales and provide the material for those future relivery sales. Their job is to maximise their take from total available expenditure, preferably at the expense of other manufacturers and by growing total sales.

 

I'm very conscious of just how many people were telling us that Hornby would have scaled back their release programme for this year, we should expect no more than a single new loco, etc, etc. That prediction turned out to be a load of old bunions, and I suspect your take will also be proved incorrect. An early test will be Bachmann's announcement in a couple of months.

 

Paul

['CHARD]

I am surprised that Hornby decided to make the 2BIL as this was not in the top 50 of the 2011 00 gauge wish list. This was Pat Hammond's British Model Railway Wish List 2011 for the Collector's Club of Great Britain. Only 31 people voted for the 2BIL. 

 

I would have thought Hornby would make more sales by producing the LSWR 700 which was 13th in the wish list.59 people voted for it.

I don't think that the survey methods in terms of number of people polled, and votes returned for specific candidates, would qualify as being statistically significant, if they were scrutinized.

 

Bear in mind, the clue to the relevance of those polls is hiding in plain sight: "Collector's Club of Great Britain."  Not Global Modellers of British Railway Prototypes.

[The Stationmaster]

I am surprised that Hornby decided to make the 2BIL as this was not in the top 50 of the 2011 00 gauge wish list. This was Pat Hammond's British Model Railway Wish List 2011 for the Collector's Club of Great Britain. Only 31 people voted for the 2BIL. Previous emus have met with poor sales with the Hornby-Dublo emu being a prime example. According to page 142 of Pat Hammond's Tri-ang Railways The Story of Rovex Volume 1 1950-1965 the R156/R225 4SUB emu was never very popular with only 30,000 being made over six years.This compares with 104,000 Princesses being produced between 1953 and 1961.

 

I would have thought Hornby would make more sales by producing the LSWR 700 which was 13th in the wish list.59 people voted for it. This would fill a useful gap for modellers of the Southern Railway and would enable LSWR modellers to run a complete train service with the M7 and T9. Perhaps a rival manufacturer will beat Hornby in producing a 700.

 

The other Hornby 2013 new releases seem to be what people want although many people on this site seem to want better quality models.

It isn't all based on wishlisting Robin (just look at the number of 'prospective purchases' on some such lists and yo'd need to be a major philanthropist to make something that would sell in such penny numbers - and that's the most popular items).  It's all a mater of marketing and a lot more inputs than reading a wishlist.

 

I know that one Hornby rep has been banging on about the 2 BIL for at least 4 years and he has been putting feedback from retailers as well as plans and photos supplied by one retailer (and probably others).  And in any case you need to look back before 2011 polls to get a handle on what might be interesting or encouraging manufacturers as well as looking at what they put into the market - what suits they might be seeing as their image.

 

The market today is also very different from that of 40 or 50 years ago and people who have trainsets or model railways are driven by different bases for their nostalgia or interest from what they see in museums or on preserved lines - as a I said, it's a lot more about marketing than it is about wishlists.  And in the case of the 2BIL that seems to have worked with not only strong interest expressed on here (notwithstanding warts and all on the model) but, reportedly, a strong interest from retailers.  I fully understand that a strong interest from retailers doesn't necessarily mean immediate high retail sales results but that might not worry Hornby over much in present times and circumstances as long as they can empty the warehouse and clear a profit.

 

And Hornby never seem to have worked as 'gap fillers' for modellers - Bachmann do seem to have gone for that approach but added to it some interesting 'curved balls' while the commissioners are now very much gap fillers, plus Heljan taking on the role for early diesels.

[Obi-Jiff Kenobi]

Shouldn't that be 47 574 and 47 579 ?

Sadly, they don't fit into any period I model.

[coachmann]

All the talk of Hornby's financial problems makes me wonder if Hornby will put the Southern Belle/Brighton Belle on the back-burner or even write it off completely as a dead loss. It is certainly a very odd choice to produce RTR, although no doubt collectors will tell me there is a market for such a thing.

[Oldddudders]

All the talk of Hornby's financial problems makes me wonder if Hornby will put the Southern Belle/Brighton Belle on the back-burner or even write it off completely as a dead loss. It is certainly a very odd choice to produce RTR, although no doubt collectors will tell me there is a market for such a thing.

The blue/grey versions seem to be on cheap offer at the boxshifters, if that's any hint. I suspect most buyers are opting for Pullman livery - the heyday of this service.

[Barry Ten]

The blue/grey versions seem to be on cheap offer at the boxshifters, if that's any hint. I suspect most buyers are opting for Pullman livery - the heyday of this service.

 

As a kid I lusted after the blue/grey one in the Wrenn catalogue so that was the one I sprung for - though I suspect you are right that the majority will prefer the earlier livery. There's a similar impulse making me want the reversed blue/grey Blue Pullman - it's not that I partcularly care for the livery, just that it reminds me of old Tri-ang catalogues.

[Peter Bedding]

I think the C Class was my first Bachmann UK loco purchased new - the Ns and the 2-6-2 tank were all ebay. I have one of their Bulleid coaches, and that's enough, thanks. Contrast that with a handful of mostly-new T9s, ditto M7s - and at least 40 Maunsells. The manufacturer who produces what I want will probably get my business.

 

Hello Ian,

 

I guess your closing sentence sums up for us all. Even to a dyed-in-the-wool kettle fan, I would love to have 3rd rail EMUs trundling around my home layout. But my storage sidings  cannot make room for a 5-coach set. A 4-coach set is my absolute length limit, (and cost limit too if truth be known). So my utmost admiration for the 5-BEL must be from afar, and only 2-BILs, and 2-NOLs will put real pressure on my purse. My last two purchases were the Wainwight C and yet another Maunsell N, both r-t-r in SR utility black and for my money totally satisfactory. The Hornby equivalent would have been the R 3108 T9 with narrow cab and water-cart tender, but this has been scratched, sine die. In the same way, further Maunsell R4 3-sets seem ever less than likely, and which I certainly would most cheerfully accept if an ex-LSWR cross-country lav 3-set should come forward in lieu.

 

PB

[Ravenser]

All the talk of Hornby's financial problems makes me wonder if Hornby will put the Southern Belle/Brighton Belle on the back-burner or even write it off completely as a dead loss. It is certainly a very odd choice to produce RTR, although no doubt collectors will tell me there is a market for such a thing.

 

Those were exactly my feelings when they annouced it in OO . But they seem to have got away with it - the initial runs have sold, and they must have taken on the project on the basis that it would be a low volume/big ticket prestige item, not a mass market bread and butter seller  like their Maunsell stock. I would never have expected to see it in the OO range for year after year

 

By producing it in N under the Arnold brand they can use their R&D a second time , which must cut the costs substantially - it represents a toehold in British outline N, and the branding suggests that it's being done with one eye on the Continental market: remember it was supposed to be announced at Nuremburg. The scale difference between British N and Continental N is much less than between OO and N - Continental European buyers are already used to eye-watering prices and they can probably generate enough sales from European collectors and British N gauge modellers combined, at a premium price , to get away with it  

[Fenman]

... I find it hard to believe the packing was an issue they have been in the game far too long... more like a cash flow problem...

I bet they held them up to make the performance figures look better for last year.

That makes no sense at all. If you had speculated that holding them back would make *this* year's performance figures look better, maybe; but Hornby was desperately short of stock to shift in the run-up to Christmas, and I don't believe for one second that they've held anything back.

 

I also think you're underestimating the difficulties of operating a supply line over several thousand miles and a language barrier. Don't forget, Hornby has been trying to use new factories for some of its production, which might also mean a new supplier was the cause of the difficulties (if, indeed, the tanks are not being made in the usual place. I have no idea...).

 

Paul

[Brian D]

Hmm.  This thread is entitled "Hornby's 2013 Announcements".  Quite frankly dear Moderators, hasn't this wandered off topic sufficiently and gone on far too long with individual sub-topic converstations perhaps being better elsewhere within the forum?  Well overdue for "Pinning" in my opinion.  Just a thought.  We are after all up to 79 pages!

Regards,

[Andy Y]

I find it hard to believe the packing was an issue they have been in the game far too long for that to happen more like a cash a flow problem, 

New factories may slip up with the most odd things, there's certainly no evidence to suggest it relates to cash flow or massaging of figures. Hornby would have loved to have had them on sale pre-Christmas.

[Robin Brasher]

Hmm.  This thread is entitled "Hornby's 2013 Announcements".  Quite frankly dear Moderators, hasn't this wandered off topic sufficiently and gone on far too long with individual sub-topic converstations perhaps being better elsewhere within the forum?  Well overdue for "Pinning" in my opinion.  Just a thought.  We are after all up to 79 pages!

Regards,

According to the Model Railways Direct advertisement R3162 BR 2BIL EMU is due to appear on 11 Feb 2013. We will be able to put "design clever" to the test, review it and see if its sales live to expectations on this thread.

[Brian D]

According to the Model Railways Direct advertisement R3162 BR 2BIL EMU is due to appear on 11 Feb 2013. We will be able to put "design clever" to the test, review it and see if its sales live to expectations on this thread.

A very strange answer to my suggestion.  Is this in error perhaps?

[RJS1977]

I guess your closing sentence sums up for us all. Even to a dyed-in-the-wool kettle fan, I would love to have 3rd rail EMUs trundling around my home layout. But my storage sidings  cannot make room for a 5-coach set. A 4-coach set is my absolute length limit, (and cost limit too if truth be known).

 

Whilst perhaps not directly related to Hornby, I can certainly see this being an issue with the Bachmann Blue Pullman. 6 coaches is too many to provide together IMO. As stated above, many modellers have platforms which are shorter than they would like, and/or can't afford the full set (at least not all in one go!). In the past it's been usual practice for the manufacturers to release the end vehicles as a set, with perhaps one or two centre carriages , with the rest available separately to suit the purchaser's space/wallet - this was how the Hornby & Lima HSTs, Hornby APT & Javelin & Triang BP were all released this way and I'm sure all sold more as a result than if they were only available as full sets...