RMweb Premium New Haven Neil Posted April 19, 2015 RMweb Premium Share Posted April 19, 2015 Thanks for the update Dave, and I for one understand the reticence to give your ideas away to others for free. Let's just wait a wee while and when the other model is more advanced then we can get to hear of your detail developments. I'm happy to allow my money to remain in the pot, I have faith in the product being at least the equal of the other, if not rather better. As I doubt the competitors model would have ever been announced without your crowd funded version shaking the tree, I'll stick with you. As a long time US outline modeller used to silky smooth mechanisms, my main interest is in the running qualities of models, not the number of rivets (or pantograph springs), therefore a coreless motored version is far ahead of what I have seen of Hornby's mechanisms of late, (J15's excepted which are superb), I have a BIL, HAL and BEL and....they're not that good TBH. Speak as I find. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSpencer Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Tbh I'm on the fence for buying, and so have not committed, but I am believing in Dave. His reaction for secrecy is understandable, after all it's your money he's protecting. Hornsby shareholders are the ones who should be concerned, after all they extended their credit in order not just to compete on the 71, but against Hattons with the king and Oxford with the radial too.... How much return will these 3 investments (2 of which can be classed as niche) make in a competitive situation - only time will tell. If I were a Hornby shareholder I would be questioning the wisdom of two of those decisions, and the subsequent one to continue to proceed... They may yet be asked in the future (it wasn't all a surprise last summer, whilst an initial supporter of this project I heard the Hornby rumour and decided on the back of that not to jump in). I suspect the winner will be the right mix of time to market, best price and best quality, the loser... Won't be making a profit. It won't be the first time this has happened (we had both Hornby and Lima 92's at one point and both were at higher than "used to" prices and both sold equally bad, eventually H acquired L and Darwin dealt with the other). I'm playing patience before I decide, those who have invested would also be wise to play patience, as a rush to be first might compromise price or quality... As you've already paid, the option to suffer therefore is quality so if your in, you might as well wait, if your not you might as well wait and besides until it's made you have no choice but to wait. To quote a well known preservation phrase.. It'll be ready when it's ready. History seems to show that unless it is a big popular class like A4s (even those must be reaching saturation point by now!), duplication equates to both parties loosing. That said, Hattons King strategy is swamp the market with many livery and names from the word go. Hornby will doubtless be first to market, but it will be hard to see how they can make money on successive runs if the market is swamped with super detail kings (before the announcements, even refined older king models were not selling well nor fetching much!). Concerning the 71, Hornby has an advantage doing the NRM one in green although maybe DJM has a trick up their sleeves in doing it in blue in a few years time. Hornby might be again first to market too. The rails Bachmann 10000 us far better than the Dapol Hattons one, yet being best and cheaper did not equate to big profits. Both have reduced their programs to a former shadow of what was originally planned. In the short run the consumer can benefit by having lots of cheap detailed locos to buy, but will also loose as money to re-invest in new models will not be there. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
luke_stevens Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Concerning the 71, Hornby has an advantage doing the NRM one in green although maybe DJM has a trick up their sleeves in doing it in blue in a few years time. There is a way round this. We've crowd sourced the 71 so why don't we crowd source a repaint for E 5001? It looks like it could do with a repaint already... Luke Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSpencer Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 There is a way round this. We've crowd sourced the 71 so why don't we crowd source a repaint for E 5001? It looks like it could do with a repaint already... Luke One of the crowd source models is to do a repainting. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJM Dave Posted April 25, 2015 Author Share Posted April 25, 2015 There is a way round this. We've crowd sourced the 71 so why don't we crowd source a repaint for E 5001? It looks like it could do with a repaint already... Luke Simple answer........ Politics! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold Vistisen Posted April 25, 2015 RMweb Gold Share Posted April 25, 2015 (edited) Tbh I'm on the fence for buying, and so have not committed, but I am believing in Dave. His reaction for secrecy is understandable, after all it's your money he's protecting. <snip> I suspect the winner will be the right mix of time to market, best price and best quality, the loser... Won't be making a profit. It won't be the first time this has happened (we had both Hornby and Lima 92's at one point and both were at higher than "used to" prices and both sold equally bad, eventually H acquired L and Darwin dealt with the other). <snip> As I understand the crowd sourcing model. DJM's Class 71 is guaranteed to at least break even ( unless the coasts soar during development period). The project was based on being able to produce the preordered kickstarter number for a preagreed price which presumably covers the development costs + the production costs. This will be followed by a 'creaming off the fat' run at a higher price which only has to cover the production costs. It may well be that a Hornby model reduces the number of locomotives sold during this phase, but the pre-ordered sales have already paid in full for their models. So i assume/hope that DJM are certain of at least breaking even, Likewise I assume that Hornby has deducted the publicly known number of kickstarter sales from their sales projections and still decided that the market is large enough to justify the investment. So let's hope that everyone is a winner in this case. Edited April 25, 2015 by Vistiaen 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Storey Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 As I understand the crowd sourcing model. DJM's Class 71 is guaranteed to at least break even ( unless the coasts soar during development period). The project was based on being able to produce the preordered kickstarter number for a preagreed price which presumably covers the development costs + the production costs. This will be followed by a 'creaming off the fat' run at a higher price which only has to cover the production costs. It may well be that a Hornby model reduces the number of locomotives sold during this phase, but the pre-ordered sales have already paid in full for their models. So i assume/hope that DJM are certain of at least breaking even, Likewise I assume that Hornby has deducted the publicly known number of kickstarter sales from their sales projections and still decided that the market is large enough to justify the investment. So let's hope that everyone is a winner in this case. Good but not Carling. DJM have to make a profit if re-investment is to be possible, into Class 74 tooling naturally, and also because Dave probably likes to eat and drink, occasionally, not that he has the time obviously, and pay his mortgage/rent/maintenance.... 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSpencer Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 As I understand the crowd sourcing model. DJM's Class 71 is guaranteed to at least break even ( unless the coasts soar during development period). The project was based on being able to produce the preordered kickstarter number for a preagreed price which presumably covers the development costs + the production costs. This will be followed by a 'creaming off the fat' run at a higher price which only has to cover the production costs. It may well be that a Hornby model reduces the number of locomotives sold during this phase, but the pre-ordered sales have already paid in full for their models. So i assume/hope that DJM are certain of at least breaking even, Likewise I assume that Hornby has deducted the publicly known number of kickstarter sales from their sales projections and still decided that the market is large enough to justify the investment. So let's hope that everyone is a winner in this case. If you asked before 2 manufacturers jumped in for a 71, how many people would want then the answers would probably have been something like: 1) 71 and southern fans - all or most of the versions made - 5% of the market for this model 2) southern fans but not 71 fans - mostly one model or 2 at best, 50% of the market 3) non southern fans, but general model railway enthusiasts or collectors - 45% I would put a ball park figure of about 2500 units for a loco like this in year 1 of sales. Now we have two manufacturers on the game, it will probably shift to something like this : 1) 71 and southern fans - all or most of the versions made by both - 5% of the market for this model 2) southern fans but not 71 fans - either 1 model, or 1 model from each manufacturer or 2 models from one manufacturer, 45% of the market 3) non southern fans, but general model railway enthusiasts or collectors or specific Hornby collectors - 50% The ballpark figure will probably jump up to around 3500 in year 1. split evenly between both (although other factors could push sales one way or another). Overall China wins from this contest! Note: other new loco announcements could dampen sales as these provide competition. The number of model locos sold would still go up, but there would fewer sales for any particular type. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
YesTor Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 (edited) Why should Hornby have mistakes? Well, isn't that just the million dollar question! The answer... For the same reason that other recent Hornby efforts have mistakes/shortcomings I would think... Edited April 26, 2015 by darkjunglemung Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cross Fell Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Is the much vaunted repaint into BR blue still going ahead, I was at Barrow Hill a few weeks ago and its looking very shabby, I was expecting to see something happening with it but no-one on site seemed to know anything. Martin Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJM Dave Posted May 12, 2015 Author Share Posted May 12, 2015 Is the much vaunted repaint into BR blue still going ahead, I was at Barrow Hill a few weeks ago and its looking very shabby, I was expecting to see something happening with it but no-one on site seemed to know anything. Martin Hi Martin, Politics got in the way of this one I'm afraid, and although you can see the official press releases of the time issues by all concerned parties, another party put a stop to it. So for now, unfortunately the loco that is owned by both you and I, is, unfortunately, left to slowly deteriorate. All I can say really is that we all tried. As for the model to raise funds for its' repaint, this is still going ahead, but I will probably divert the donation, if things aren't moving along by then, to a UK charity, so at least they will still go to a good cause. 5 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purley Oaks Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Took this pic on my Brownie 120 sometime in the late 60s at Eastbourne station. Quite battered Mal 14 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dogmatix Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 Quite battered Battered Brownie? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold Vistisen Posted May 19, 2015 RMweb Gold Share Posted May 19, 2015 Battered Brownie? must be Scottish, they'll deep fry anything 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold Oldddudders Posted May 19, 2015 RMweb Gold Share Posted May 19, 2015 Took this pic on my Brownie 120 sometime in the late 60s at Eastbourne station. Quite battered Mal That has no yellow paint of any sort. Early 60s, surely? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJM Dave Posted May 19, 2015 Author Share Posted May 19, 2015 That has no yellow paint of any sort. Early 60s, surely? Can't see a red stripe with white lining either, although it might be there. The green looks non BR green but the darker green prevelant at the time. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold stovepipe Posted May 20, 2015 RMweb Gold Share Posted May 20, 2015 That has no yellow paint of any sort. Early 60s, surely? Photos are hard to come by, but the earliest date I have for yellow panels is April 1967. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
BR(S) Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 Apparently a rare picture of a Class 71 with pantograph raised (E5004, blue, full yellow ends at Hither Green): https://flic.kr/p/4GyQrV 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold stovepipe Posted May 20, 2015 RMweb Gold Share Posted May 20, 2015 I think the date of that one is a little out - I would say more like after 1968. E5004 has new paint in this 1967 shot. E5004_PettsWood_1030-Vic-DoverM_GoldenArrow_25-6-67 by Robert Carroll, on Flickr 4 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southernman46 Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 Apparently a rare picture of a Class 71 with pantograph raised (E5004, blue, full yellow ends at Hither Green): https://flic.kr/p/4GyQrV That's them Transfesa vans that someone ought to do........... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porcy Mane Posted May 20, 2015 Share Posted May 20, 2015 A 1963 Pic. One without stripe. https://flic.kr/p/dYXzvG Porcy 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold Budgie Posted May 20, 2015 RMweb Gold Share Posted May 20, 2015 A 1963 Pic. One without stripe. https://flic.kr/p/dYXzvG Porcy That one calls them electro-diesels. I thought they were straight electric. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purley Oaks Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 That has no yellow paint of any sort. Early 60s, surely? Definitely not early 60s - summer 1966 earliest, only started taking pics then - used to visit an aunt in Willingdon in the summer hols. The pic has turned out much better than I expected - the original print is very dark and was at an angle so the scanner & Mac iPhoto sorts it out very well. Mal 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJM Dave Posted May 21, 2015 Author Share Posted May 21, 2015 Hi guys, Anyone know why some had higher on the front Small yellow warning panels? an experiment perhaps? I've seen a few pictures of the warning panel extending down from the front immediately below the cab front windows roughly 2/3 of the way down. any help appreciated. cheers Dave Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold stovepipe Posted May 21, 2015 RMweb Gold Share Posted May 21, 2015 (edited) Like these on E5001 and E5012? https://www.flickr.com/photos/robertcwp/5431431222/ https://www.flickr.com/photos/irishswissernie/6521259261/ It looks as though someone might have been thinking about the position of the headboard. The rounded corners implies to me they were done before the other versions, of which there were a few: Lower Panel - narrow, as on E5016, E5018 and E5022 https://www.flickr.com/photos/robertcwp/5076609650/ https://www.flickr.com/photos/irishswissernie/6521278323/in/album-72157628444465985/ https://www.flickr.com/photos/robertcwp/5375766545/in/photolist-9gUoxX-9gXvBN-9c3d76-qfN3Ff-pRontT-khFsyP-oeG1aB-8pDcwR-8pDcwP-8pDcwF-82GNKw Lower Panel - medium, as on E5002, E5007, E5009 and E5011 https://www.flickr.com/photos/irishswissernie/13100387945/ https://www.flickr.com/photos/irishswissernie/6499093497/ https://www.flickr.com/photos/robertcwp/5357110245/ https://www.flickr.com/photos/irishswissernie/7367846236/ Lower - Panel - wide, as on E5008 https://www.flickr.com/photos/robertcwp/5448033094/in/photolist- and Large Panel - wide as on E5014 https://www.flickr.com/photos/robertcwp/5500563450/in/photolist-8PhHms-9o4PSS-9o1LDH-9k1fUn Only E5016 above was converted to a class 74s, the rest remained 71s. Given that yellow panels weren't applied until early 1967, and the cl74 conversions started later that year, the future 74's can only have carried yellow panels for a few months, if at all. Of those that stayed as 71s, only 10 are confirmed to have yellow panels. The unaccounted ones are E5004, E5010*, E5013, and E5020 if anyone has any photos. They were all blue by late 1969, so it's a pretty narrow period. * E5010 was Green FYE by March 1968 so may not have had a panel at all. Which ones are you doing again Dave? Edit: found E5018 with SYP Edited May 21, 2015 by stovepipe Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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