N Gauge Class 390 Pendolino (post Kickstarter) with Rapido

[Revolution Ben]

Hello all,

 

There are quite a few points made above and I have some thoughts on these.

 

Firstly, I think it's fair to say that in the event of the Kickstarter not reaching its target there is not going to be a perfect solution but I feel the steps we have taken have optimised the outcome for as many people as possible.  My thoughts in answer to specific questions:

 

1)  Why can't Rapido just come in with the remaining cash to see us home? - Practically they can't.  As has been pointed out, there is an upper limit on pledging (£5K I think) to ensure the principle of crowd funding isn't abused.  Besides, why should they?  It doesn't matter to them whether Kickstarter actually succeeds or fails now they have taken the decision to work with us on going forward on the basis of committment shown so far.

 

2)  Will we lose a lot of speculative backers if we have to go to plan B? - We might.  But it would have been disingenuous not to let people know the full picture so they can make an informed decision.  Besides, even if we move to Plan B it is no guarantee there will be more models.  We will open pre-ordering (at a higher price) from tomorrow until the models are ready for production - probably around August time.  At that point, if we have, say, pre-orders for 1200 models, Jason may well decide that the market for Pendolinos is sated for the next 2, 3, 4 years and hold off production - after all, he will have made (some) money but more importantly will have an entry into the UK N market, will have kept the factory busy and will have tooling he then owns.  I firmly believe anyone who takes up their "Kickstarter price" ordering rights at under plan B will still make a fast buck - and good luck to them!

 

3) Will not reaching our Kickstarter target dissuade others?  I don't know.  From my point of view our efforts with Kickstarter have succeeded since my core goal was to produce N Gauge Pendolinos.  However, if its purpose was also to prove that Kickstarter itself was viable for the British model railway customert then yes, maybe that is a failure and maybe the lesson is that such a funding model (especially with its time limitations and all-or-nothing condition) is not quite the right "fit" for this market.  I have been very gratified with all the very kind words about the efforts put in by Mike and me - and of course our supporters on layouts, banners here on RM Web and our backers - and I would say that it is hard to imagine we could have done much more to drive this over the line - my point being that if this one didn't succeed, with all the good will and press coverage etc that we achieved - then I do feel others are less likely to.

 

Having said that, we are now just 15% off our funding total and getting closer all the time!  We could still make it!

 

cheers

 

Ben A.

Edited January 18, 2015 by Ben A

[ruggedpeak]

Personally Im a bit disappointed that Rapido are to step in to ensure it works. It harms all future crowdfunding projects in that it will dissuade people from pledging as 'sure the manufacturer will step in at the end so I dont need to pledge'

 

As someone who is seriously looking into creating a project for a very niche market (Neither N scale or British outline) this is not good. Im aware that despite Rapidos enthusiasm for a lot of things, they did not take this step out of the goodness of their hearts either. Its a serious business decision at the end of the day

 

I'm afraid that is nothing more than speculation - is there any real evidence it harms future projects? None that I can see. If there is then the other thread would be a good place to provide it.

 

Of course it's a business decision, Rapido are a business and it suits them. And Ben and Mike have done an exceptional job of:

 

1) getting a model made that would not have otherwise got done

2) raised money for charity

3) generated considerable interest in modern N gauge

4) provided a huge amount of learning for those who want to understand the dynamics of the N guage market, the wider model rail market and the role of crowdsourcing etc.

 

This is a hugely positive project that helps drives the hobby forward and pushes the boundaries. I am staggered people are griping about it. And I have no vested interest, as stated earlier in this thread I am a OO modeller who is keen to support great new initiatives and loves a bargain - 9 car model for £255, what's not to like! On the flip side, plan B removes the certainty of making a few quid from the models that the Kickstarter provided. But it was fairly obvious to me at least there would be a plan B, and the plan B proposed is a good one. Orders may get adjusted as a result but they know that. I'd prefer a lockout period where Rapido can't sell for a while but that probably doesn't work for them. The price differential between Kickstarter and not will be important. Kickstarters will need to feel they are getting a good deal. But I will be buying some anyway.

 

As for Rapido, it isn't rocket science, they are looking to move into the UK market and are doing things that make a big statement. This and the APT-E are exactly that. So what, why not? That's how we get innovation and a better modelling experience. And, from my perspective it pretty much guarantees a top drawer model delivered on time. In the current climate if Rapdio fail to deliver on a high profile crowd sourced project they will be undoubtedly and rightly crucified! So a huge win for Rapdio (and Ben & Mike and us) if they deliver, a huge fail if they don't, and their UK foray may struggle to gain traction. The risk and pressure is on Rapido, especially as they snuck the deal from DJM. Nothing like a bit of pressure to get results!

Edited January 18, 2015 by ruggedpeak

[Tricky-CRS]

3) Will not reaching our Kickstarter target dissuade others? However, if its purpose was also to prove that Kickstarter itself was viable for the British model railway customert then yes, maybe that is a failure and maybe the lesson is that such a funding model (especially with its time limitations and all-or-nothing condition) is not quite the right "fit" for this market. 

 

This project has not disproved the funding model as it has not run its true full course, so no lessons there. The funding model is a valid and reliable model that is well used and respected outside of railway modelling. This was always going to be a big ask as it is a big jump from a few thousand raised previously to a few hundred thousand this time.

 

Kickstarter is a very good system and time restraints are always required as is the all or nothing. Other platforms take the money when pledged, what would have happened if you had done this, you would have £180000 and a commitment to supply the goods costing £210000.

 

I still feel and am working on a project to push the funding goal up by several thousand but under a Hundred the hobby needs to move forward in small steps and this has proofed the system.

[Revolution Ben]

Hi Rugged Peak,

 

Thanks, I'd forgotten that we have pledges for more than 50 Poppy-linos, which will, if all are completed, generate £500+ for the Royal British Legion.  Some might say that in itself is worthwile.

 

cheers

 

Ben A.

[Revolution Mike]

On speculative backers: I see no reason why speculative backers should be in too much of a different position under plan B.  You will have a ready made market incentive in that you will be purchasing at the lowest possible price and that after 10pm tonight the price will immediately go up! The initial plan is not to produce any more sets than would be produced under the Kickstarter funding model, though we would have to re-visit that if we were being swamped with pre-orders at the higher prices as people see the development work.

 

There also seems to a bit of confusion about where people will place orders/deposits for plan B - Ben and I set up a ltd company to run the Pendolino project through if we got funding, which we will use to take orders/deposits if necessary for plan B! We will let everyone know full details once we know the outcome of the Kickstarter campaign.

 

Cheers, Mike

[Roy L S]

Hopefully the majority want the model for their layouts/collections and are not buying at a speculative "punt" to make money anyway.

 

Just checking "Kickstarter" again and the project is £5 shy of £180k pledged. Whichever way you look at it that is one heck of an achievement using a process largely untested in the UK model railway market for a large complex project such as this. I am pleased "Plan B" has been announced it recognises the effort of everyone involved to prove that a large multiple unit electric train can be viable in the UK market which if I am honest has proved me and many others (when I look back at my comments only a few months ago) wrong.

 

Roy

[lyneux]

On speculative backers: I see no reason why speculative backers should be in too much of a different position under plan B.  You will have a ready made market incentive in that you will be purchasing at the lowest possible price and that after 10pm tonight the price will immediately go up!

 

We don't yet know what the Rapido pricing for Plan B looks like. Under Plan A, it was clear that there wouldn't be anything produced by Rapido for 2 years so the gamble in that case (the risk that us speculative backers were taking) was that there would be enough demand within the 2 year period to generate sales at a reasonable profit. If, under Plan B, Rapido sells a 9 car set for say £275, then there isn't much incentive to speculate. The size of the market for speculaters is pretty much proportionate to:

 

(Total number produced - Number retained by people who don't want to sell them) x period of time until next batch

 

For speculators, there are 2 more unknown variables in that equation under Plan B than existed under the Kickstarter campaign so you can see why it is more risky.

 

Anyway, I seriously hope I am in a minority and that most people have pledged because they actually want the model!

 

Guy

Edited January 18, 2015 by lyneux

[Revolution Ben]

We don't yet know what the Rapido pricing for Plan B looks like. <snipped>

 

For speculators, there are 2 more unknown variables in that equation under Plan B than existed under the Kickstarter campaign so you can see why it is more risky.

 

Guy

 

Hi Guy,

 

Let me turn that around:  If we take the 9-car unit as an example, the Kickstarter price is £255 without sound, Rapido have indicated that the RRP would be not less than £320. 

 

The Plan B price - for those who want to pre-order but missed out on pledging - hasn't yet been decided.

 

As a potential speculative investor what would you say is the right Plan B price that both rewards speculative investors and will attract the orders that we would like to help make up the Kickstarter shortfall between tomorrow and August?

 

cheers

 

Ben A.

Edited January 18, 2015 by Ben A

[Roy L S]

Everyone has their own reasons for pledging, including speculation that they might on sell an make a few quid, and that is entirely their prerogative. 

 

That is however always going to entail an element of risk whatever the equation turns out to be as does any such "investment". I am sure this project wasn't conceived with speculative profit of a small number at it's forefront and as such "Plan B" (if needed) will not either and nor surely would the business decisions of Rapido which follow.

 

Regards

 

Roy 

[Steve-e]

Hello all,

 

There are quite a few points made above and I have some thoughts on these.

 

 

1) Why can't Rapido just come in with the remaining cash to see us home? - Practically they can't. As has been pointed out, there is an upper limit on pledging (£5K I think) to ensure the principle of crowd funding isn't abused. Besides, why should they? It doesn't matter to them whether Kickstarter actually succeeds or fails now they have taken the decision to work with us on going forward on the basis of committment shown so far.

 

 

cheers

 

Ben A.

Thanks for the info on maximum pledge it was something I was unaware of although Im sure Ive seen it done before not kickstarter another crowd funder where it got to the last day and suddenly they 'found' enough "off-line" pledges to send it over the goal and secure the funds that were pledged.... but as you say its not on kickstarter so all or nothing

 

 

 

Steve

Edited January 18, 2015 by Steve-e

[Claude_Dreyfus]

For me it is a real pity that the news that the core objective of the whole project - the provision of a ready to run Pendolino in N Gauge - looks to have been achieved, has been diverted by complaints that the Kickstarter has failed (along with the ludicrously inappropriately-timed 'lessons learned' thread, why could it not at least have waited for another day or two?) and grumbles that those who have made a speculative pledge may not make as big a profit as they would have liked.

 

For the latter, too bad! That's speculation for you!

 

For those of us who have either pledged because we really want a Pendolino, or those who have pledged because the project has the potential to open a whole new avenue in model railways, it is great news from Rapido that they believe the Kickstarter has provided them with the assurance that they can proceed with the project.

[lyneux]

Let me turn that around:  If we take the 9-car unit as an example, the Kickstarter price is £255 without sound, Rapido have indicated that the RRP would be not less than £320. 

 

The Plan B price - for those who want to pre-order but missed out on pledging - hasn't yet been decided.

 

As a potential speculative investor what would you say is the right Plan B price that both rewards speculative investors and will attract the orders that we would like to help make up the Kickstarter shortfall between tomorrow and August?

 

Yes around the £320 mark would be sensible (and it was on this basis that I pledged in the first place). I assume the pricing for Plan B will be confirmed soon?

 

grumbles that those who have made a speculative pledge may not make as big a profit as they would have liked.

 

No grumbles here, you misunderstand me. What I am saying is that there may be a large number of backers (myself included) who may pull out at this stage as the speculation risks have increased. I am highlighting the reasons why for Mike and Ben to digest. There are no emotions involved at all here, it's a business decision (invest or don't invest).

 

To reiterate: I'm extremely happy that this has succeeded (come what may) and that a new model will be coming to market as a result. I'm particularly interested in the prospect of what this means for future Kickstarter-derived projects. My main original reason for pledging was to help to see a Kickstarter-funded model railway project to come to fruition... and it has!

 

Guy

Edited January 18, 2015 by lyneux

[ruggedpeak]

Agree Claude, too much typing and not enough thinking.

 

The point of the project was to deliver a full length model of a Pendolino in N Gauge. Technically until that appears in my grubby mitts it has not succeeded. At this point it is getting the funding to a level where it can move into actually producing the model. Which is fairly important, and has been achieved. Does it matter who's layout a Pendo ends up on and how much they paid? Not that I can see.

 

Plan B may impact a bit on that, but until the KS finished we won't know. No doubt commercial decisions will be made as a result and we will see.

 

But the simple fact is Ben and Mike are about to achieve a critical milestone in a project where others in the past have failed. And, their comms has been excellent, so although we are wondering about a few details we know that we will know the full monte in a matter of hours. Something others would do well to note. And this has to continue during the design and production phase, and I'm sure it will.

 

It is all part of the next few years in UK railway modelling that is going to be very exciting. Game on!

Edited January 18, 2015 by ruggedpeak

[Jonboy]

Frankly the only issue that has stopped me pledging was the time window of the Kickstarter process - running it across the xmas period (Nov through Jan pay periods) with all the pressures that brings on the home budget meant it was a regrettable no-go.

 

(On the flip side I can see the fact that it was open across the xmas holiday may have increased the audience size online....)

[jjb1970]

Personally I think the team behind this effort should be very proud of themselves. An N gauge Pendolino will be made, it is mission accomplished either way.

[acko22]

I think it's totally sterling work that Ben and Mike have done, to start a lessoned learnt thread I think is actually rather negative.

 

As previously said it is wrong that the thread has already been started when the kickstart has not even finished, but a big one the two people who have learnt the most and can teach us the most are Ben and Mike themselves.

 

At the end of the day not only have they succeeded in getting a Pendolino to this stage where beyond a massive issue it will be produced, but they have proven other ideas and achieved a number of other objectives such as helping to raise  500 pound for charity.

 

While there is still time for the Kickstart for finish and potentially be successful, Ben and Mike have had the foresight to look into Plan B which while may not suit everyone it secures the core objective and in reality everything else they have achieved is a bonus!

[scottystitch]

Ben/Mike

 

Hopefully the kickstarter succeeds, it's at 87% with 4 hours to go.

 

If it doesn't, and plan B kicks in, would the original kickstarter pledgers still end up with exclusively numbered modellers, different from the ones that the post kickstarter pledgers get?

If it's possible, I would suggest that they should, to maintain some sort of exclusivity as a reward for the original backers....

 

Your thoughts?

[ash39]

I am currently in for a 9 car sound set, but if the kickstarter were to fail I'd probably reconsider whether or not to pre order with plan B. A lot of the value for me was in the exclusivity of the first batch and being 'involved' at the production stage. 

 

As I've said previously, I can't fault the way this project has been run, and I understand the honesty behind telling people about the backup plan, but I can't help thinking that the timing of it might be the difference between success or not. A lot of people who were probably considering second sets to take it over the line now know they don't have to in order to get one set.

 

Still, I don't want to sound negative, it's a major success to get this far, whether I buy one or not! Well done!

[TomE]

I am currently in for a 9 car sound set, but if the kickstarter were to fail I'd probably reconsider whether or not to pre order with plan B. A lot of the value for me was in the exclusivity of the first batch and being 'involved' at the production stage.

I think the exclusivity element will still largely be there. If I understand correctly, there will only be limited availability to those who did not sign up via Kickstarter and once the few sets available have gone, it's likely there will not be a further run for 2-3 years. Also Ben has stated that those who do order will still be involved through the various different stages. That aspect of the project has not changed regardless of whether the Kickstater total is reached or not.

 

I have to admit I have scaled back my pledge to the original 9 car set without sound following the announcement that it will be produced even if the kickstarter total is not reached, but will still be going ahead with purchasing a set even though I have no use or requirement for one at this point.

 

The way I look at it, is not so much that the Kickstarter appeal has failed but that it has proven the market exists for a Pendolino in N Gauge, and it has given Rapido the confidence to go ahead with the project even with a gap in funding. If the price of that is a few sets being sold to non pledgers at a higher cost, then so be it, but us Pendolino owners will still be a fairly exclusive club.

 

Tom.

Edited January 18, 2015 by TomE

[Revolution Ben]

Hello all,

 

Ash - You are right, being honest might have cost us some pledgers but I would rather that than have people accuse us of hoodwinking them.  If it succeeds via Kickstarter it succeeds, if it does not then so be it but at least our primary goal - of working with a manufacturer to bring a Pendolino to the UK market - will have been achieved. 

 

And Mike and I have learned an awful lot about Kickstarter and running a campaign so we will be in a strong position in the future.

 

Scotty - If the Kickstarter succeeds (at 89% with two hours to go as I write) then our backers will be receiving exclusives, so there is no reason not to pledge; since if we fail then it does not cost anything.

 

If we move to plan B then the reward for our pledgers is that they receive their models at the (bargain IMO) Kickstarter price.  However, we will invite orders from others since more time will get us over the line.  The selection of specific versions will take place around April/May time and anyone coming later than that will have to take what's on offer; and all models produced as part of this project will be uniquely packaged.  I am sure that in a few years' time the question of who backed the Kickstarter and who didn't may be somewhat academic; all these "first run" models will be special.

 

cheers

 

Ben A.

[scottystitch]

Thanks Ben, as good a reply as any. I'm still hoping for a kickstarter success.

[Revolution Mike]

We are still hoping for Kickstarter success as well - if 4 or 5 of you have £5k burning a hole in your pocket then now is the time!

 

Cheers, Mike

[Karhedron]

Well, I have put my money where my mouth is and pledged for a 9-car set. Totally inappropriate for a GWR BLT but I am excited by the project and deeply impressed by the hard work Ben and Mike have put into this.

 

Well done guys!

[Jon Gwinnett]

And that means we've hit 90%! Plan B or no, this is a massive achievement and credit to Mike and Ben, superb work fellas.

[scottystitch]

Well, I have put my money where my mouth is and pledged for a 9-car set. Totally inappropriate for a GWR BLT but I am excited by the project and deeply impressed by the hard work Ben and Mike have put into this.

 

Well done guys!

Ha! I always knew you would