Corona-virus - Impact of the Health Situation worldwide

[Colin_McLeod]

Interesting discussion on what precautions to take in Northern Ireland as the UK and Ireland take different decisions.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/ireland-school-closures-reveal-stark-contrast-to-uk-covid-19-response

[Gibbo675]

1 minute ago, Lantavian said:

 

Inflation is persistently low in the United States, and there's some speculation that the Saudi Arabians' price war on the oil markets may even create deflation. (The price of oil plunged by nearly a third last Monday).

 

 

 

 

 

 

The main reason for the oil price drop is over production by both the Saudis and the Russians, and will indeed induce deflationary pricing for fuel. This is an entirely separate issue to the current world shut down due to the virus although it will in time contribute to further financial dislocation when the US Fracking companies fail along with all the insurance derivatives connected to them. As for all that cheap fuel, it is not being purchased or burned for the shipping and airline industries are currently somewhat shut down, a quick look at the Baltic dry index will tell you that.

 

With mention of the Baltic dry index you may note that a lot of just in time components are not moving and neither are a lot of food stuffs, some of which are stuck in transit or at ports which will cause shortages and loss of both product and payments for product due to non delivery of contract. This will soon enough inflate prices within certain categories of commodities traded. The effects noted will likely not become overtly apparent until about mid April. I will be very interested to see how Snopes et al will spin that one should the time come that such a situation occurs.

[Unicorn1]

2 hours ago, sharris said:

 

Maybe RMWeb could start a "Self-Isolation Challenge" for the best model making done during a period of self-imposed exile. 

 

I'll certainly be doing some extra modelling over the next week or so - not self isolating, but informed at 5pm yesterday that our two week holiday in India has been cancelled because the Government there have suspended all visas. We were due to fly out tomorrow.

Now the battle for compensation starts....

I have plenty of ideas for modelling projects to take my mind of things!

Les

 

[melmerby]

[AY Mod]

It's a rhetorical question as I don't believe any Chinese, South Korean, Italian, Spanish, German or French leaders are on RMweb but do you think, with hindsight, you would have introduced social distancing measures earlier or later than you did? 

[black and decker boy]

I have spent today completing formal risk assessments for my team. We are scattered around the south east and regularly commute by rail & tube to meetings with clients & designers.

Many of my team (including myself) have underlying health conditions so to comply with my company rules, I've placed all on home based duties with external business travel only for safety critical reasons (we work in construction).

Our new MS Teams software will be getting a good workout for the foreseeable.

We are certainly living in unprecedented times.

[Dunsignalling]

4 hours ago, AY Mod said:

 

Talking to a shop owner this morning he was experiencing healthy sales of modelling materials such as paint and track; it sounds like there could be an outbreak happening - of modelling!

I doubt I'm the only one who has been anticipating the likelihood of some increased "home" time by rooting out unfinished projects that have been set aside for far too long.

 

A Finecast G6, four coaches, two parcels vans and a good half-dozen wagons have come to light so far. All required parts seem to be on hand. The freezer has enough in it to last a month and I've got powdered milk in as a precaution, so let battle commence.

 

I also doubt I am alone in being truly ashamed at the amount of stuff I start then allow myself to be diverted from....

 

John

Edited March 13, 2020 by Dunsignalling

[Gwiwer]

Has anyone yet considered that it is only necessary to exchange electrofrogs for insulfrogs to achieve self-isolation?

[jjb1970]

0One thing that people should perhaps take from this crisis is that our leaders are deserving of a bit more respect than generally accorded.  Most of the time they are dealing with matters that in the greater scheme of things really aren't that important despite round the clock media making everything into some existential issue of the highest import. And most of the time it is pretty easy to be a backseat driver and just criticise and deride (which of us hasn't done so?). However in times of crisis they are called upon to take responsibility and make decisions that I would not like to have to make. Some of those decisions will involve weighing the risks and benefits of actions concerning human life.  And unlike the rest of us Boris and his overseas counterparts can't hide from the responsibility by just pretending there is some sort of panacea that will allow them to evade making decisions that will result in some living and others dying. Everyone else in the chain can point to decisions handed down to salve their conscience but some will carry the responsibility with them through life. I really don't envy them and would not seek such responsibility but I appreciate someone else has accepted it.  Does this mean I am a Boris fan? No. But I do actually respect him for his conduct in this particular case and for him and his senior ministers and advisers. 

[Neil]

I'm afraid that respect doesn't seem to be universal. There's a very critical piece of the government's response here by Professor John Ashton, an expert in the field of public health. Worth reading as he doesn't just say what's wrong with the response so far but goes on to say what should have been done. For additional info here's some background on the professor.

Edited March 13, 2020 by Neil

[jjb1970]

1 minute ago, Neil said:

I'm afraid that respect doesn't seem to be universal. There's a very critical piece of the government's response here by Professor John Ashton, an expert in the field of public health. Worth reading as he doesn't just say what's wrong with the response so far but goes on to say what should have been done. For additional info here's some background on the professor.

 

Thing is that is just more backseat driving. The government appears to be listening to their scientific advisers who I have to assume are suitably competent to hold their posts and who will be receiving briefings and information not available to Prof. Ashton. Whether we agree with what the government is doing or not the gulf between commenting and taking responsibility for decisions is immense.

[tomparryharry]

23 hours ago, woodenhead said:

That only works if you believe the universe was created in 7 days and that a fat bloke with white hair and a beard delivers presents to all the children in a 24 hour period once a year.

 

You mean..... GASP! it's not true? 

 

Listen mate. I'm a fat bloke, with white hair. If you think I'm working on Christmas Eve, then boy! Are you in for a surprise!

[tomparryharry]

6 hours ago, MJI said:

 

Your leaders are extrememly replacable, if they drop dead just assign someone else.

 

So why does there need to be any designated survivors when any old person will do?

 

 

 

You need to have a look at 'The Bed-Sitting Room' as per Spike Milligan. One or two interesting parallels on there.

[Liam]

I do find that the Matt cartoons of the Daily Telegraph help lighten things up a bit. Here’s the one for tomorrow: 

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1238527628396691457

[Chamby]

1 hour ago, jjb1970 said:

0One thing that people should perhaps take from this crisis is that our leaders are deserving of a bit more respect than generally accorded.  Most of the time they are dealing with matters that in the greater scheme of things really aren't that important despite round the clock media making everything into some existential issue of the highest import. And most of the time it is pretty easy to be a backseat driver and just criticise and deride (which of us hasn't done so?). However in times of crisis they are called upon to take responsibility and make decisions that I would not like to have to make. Some of those decisions will involve weighing the risks and benefits of actions concerning human life.  And unlike the rest of us Boris and his overseas counterparts can't hide from the responsibility by just pretending there is some sort of panacea that will allow them to evade making decisions that will result in some living and others dying. Everyone else in the chain can point to decisions handed down to salve their conscience but some will carry the responsibility with them through life. I really don't envy them and would not seek such responsibility but I appreciate someone else has accepted it.  Does this mean I am a Boris fan? No. But I do actually respect him for his conduct in this particular case and for him and his senior ministers and advisers. 

 

An interesting take on things, and true in part.  But I did find myself thinking the opposite yesterday, noting the extent to which our leaders are deferring unquestioningly to the advice being given by ‘scientific and medical advisors’.  That’s the safest thing for a self-preserving politician to do, always make sure that a ‘fall guy’ is in between you and accountability for the decision.  That way, you can take credit if it goes well, and have someone else to take the rap if it goes wrong.  It’s a classic example of how the political system works...

[Allegheny1600]

10 minutes ago, Chamby said:

 

An interesting take on things, and true in part.  But I did find myself thinking the opposite yesterday, noting the extent to which our leaders are deferring unquestioningly to the advice being given by ‘scientific and medical advisors’.  That’s the safest thing for a self-preserving politician to do, always make sure that a ‘fall guy’ is in between you and accountability for the decision.  That way, you can take credit if it goes well, and have someone else to take the rap if it goes wrong.  It’s a classic example of how the political system works...

I'm very far from a fan of BJ but - what else would you have him or any other leader, do?

While I agree with Prof Aston regarding closing schools and so on, I am actually pleased to see our government taking it's lead from scientific experts.

In a situation like this, that none of us have experience of, surely that's the best thing to do?

[Oldddudders]

6 minutes ago, Chamby said:

 

An interesting take on things, and true in part.  But I did find myself thinking the opposite yesterday, noting the extent to which our leaders are deferring unquestioningly to the advice being given by ‘scientific and medical advisors’.  That’s the safest thing for a self-preserving politician to do, always make sure that a ‘fall guy’ is in between you and accountability for the decision.  That way, you can take credit if it goes well, and have someone else to take the rap if it goes wrong.  It’s a classic example of how the political system works...

But would we want it otherwise? Politicians are clearly different from you and me, because they seek office, or power if you prefer, and I, probably you, don't. The Civil Service is there to act as cutout between the loony elected representative and reality, and the expert advisers are the specific contextual add-on. 

[Ozexpatriate]

10 hours ago, melmerby said:

With the electoral college system you can end up with a president that the majority didn't vote for. (e.g. Trump)

There's no need to remind me.

 

It has happened five times. The last two times resulted in chaos, though the peaceful transition of power was observed in each occasion.

 

As you note:

 

Edited March 13, 2020 by Ozexpatriate

[Chamby]

19 minutes ago, Allegheny1600 said:

I'm very far from a fan of BJ but - what else would you have him or any other leader, do?

While I agree with Prof Aston regarding closing schools and so on, I am actually pleased to see our government taking it's lead from scientific experts.

In a situation like this, that none of us have experience of, surely that's the best thing to do?

 

17 minutes ago, Oldddudders said:

But would we want it otherwise? Politicians are clearly different from you and me, because they seek office, or power if you prefer, and I, probably you, don't. The Civil Service is there to act as cutout between the loony elected representative and reality, and the expert advisers are the specific contextual add-on. 

 

I have worked inside the system in central government, it is how the system works and I am not being cynical, just honest.   I was shocked when I first saw the extent to which political survival drives decision making in Westminster.  Yes, top marks to BJ et al for playing it straight and not trying to be the hero.  But ensuring political longevity during this crisis is a real factor behind the approach being taken, thankfully it also leads them towards common sense on this occasion!

[Ozexpatriate]

8 hours ago, Metr0Land said:

Depends on your perspective if you think any old person will do.  As has been noted, in the US it's President then VP then Speaker of the House of Representatives.  IIRC at the time of 9/11 Bush and and Cheney were Republicans but Speaker of The House was Democrat, so the line of succession was at the forefront of some peoples' minds,  not wanting 'the other lot' to get in charge, 

 

The line is clearly drawn with the death of a sitting president. Much more controversial is an incapacitated President. There have been many examples and your reference to Cheney brought it to mind. After being shot, James Garfield lay on his deathbed for 80 days. Woodrow Wilson had a stroke and his incapacity was hidden by the first lady. These sort of issues were resolved by the 25th Amendment.

 

In the chaos of 9/11 there is speculation that Cheney actually took over while the President was hustling to get to a secure location, though this was not "officially" done.

 

There were two "acting Presidents" under Section 3 of the 25th Amendment: George H.W. Bush (while Reagan underwent surgery for colon cancer) and Dick Cheney (twice, while George W. Bush had a colonoscopy).

 

George H.W, Bush did not invoke Section 4 after the attempted assassination of Ronald Reagan though it was considered. The appearance of "grasping for power" has been a deterrent for Vice Presidents wanting to invoke an "acting President" status.

[Joseph_Pestell]

1 hour ago, SVRlad said:

I do find that the Matt cartoons of the Daily Telegraph help lighten things up a bit. Here’s the one for tomorrow: 

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1238527628396691457

 

A true genius. Pity that he does not work for a more worthy newspaper, but I always enjoy his work.

[Ozexpatriate]

4 hours ago, jjb1970 said:

And unlike the rest of us Boris and his overseas counterparts can't hide from the responsibility by just pretending there is some sort of panacea that will allow them to evade making decisions that will result in some living and others dying.

Or pretend that there isn't a problem until the metaphorical horse has bolted from the barn? A possibly political observation so I'll say no more there.

 

I agree with your observation that leadership is difficult and a standard of reasonableness should apply. This is also a test of real leadership and some will fail the test and demonstrate their lack of true leadership abilities.

 

EDIT:

Here's something I saw in an op-ed piece online after I had made the above post:

Quote

Here's the thing: XXXXXX didn't cause the coronavirus. And any pandemic with this level of infectiousness and mortality rate is not the sort of thing that a government can probably ever a) be totally ready for and b) handle without a hitch. Mistakes are always made when government and/or the private sector is forced to confront such a massive challenge.

 

The real danger is when the person at the top of an organization is unwilling to own those errors. When the top leader is always looking to point the finger of blame at others, the ability of any organization to focus on the challenge at hand moving forward becomes significantly reduced. Because if the lead person is playing the blame game, you can be sure so are all of his or her underlings.

It's very much along the lines I was thinking.

 

Edited March 13, 2020 by Ozexpatriate
Added op-ed.

[Joseph_Pestell]

2 hours ago, Neil said:

I'm afraid that respect doesn't seem to be universal. There's a very critical piece of the government's response here by Professor John Ashton, an expert in the field of public health. Worth reading as he doesn't just say what's wrong with the response so far but goes on to say what should have been done. For additional info here's some background on the professor.

Ashton was on Question Time last night. Gave Fiona Bruce a bit of a hard time although she handled it well.

 

I could see that he has a valid view but then so, presumably, do the other "experts" that Government is consulting. We have not been here before.

 

I am no fan of BoJo and I am also in two vulnerable groups. I am trying to open a new hospitality business at just the time that everyone is likely to be told to stay at home. Bad timing like so much of my life. And yet, I feel that our Govt is pitching about right. Italy's reaction (and inefficiency) seems like slight overkill.

[Gibbo675]

Hi Folks,

 

All this talk of politics, ministers and government action reminds me of two of Milton Friedman's quotes:

 

"One of the great mistakes is to judge policies and programs by their intentions rather than their results."

 

"The government solution to a problem is usually as bad as the problem."

 

Both seem one way or another, rather pertinent to the situation unfolding.

 

Gibbo.

[APOLLO]

I used to cough to cover up a fart. Now I fart to cover up a cough.

 

Brit15