Lockdown’s Last Lingerings - (Covid since L2 ended)

[AY Mod]

22 minutes ago, John M Upton said:

there are so many basically useless variants in use, improperly worn, etc, etc that, unless you have a top notch professional medical mask properly fitted and worn, they are about as much use as a cat flap on a submarine.

 

 

 

 

[The Stationmaster]

1 hour ago, adb968008 said:

Decisive action at last...

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-55468104
 

just not in this country.

Imho we should be considering mandatory masks at all times outside your home. Whilst draconian, it does seek to hammer down the message, which appears to have been forgotten and maybe focus minds.

 

seeing people walk out of a shop, rip off a mask crumple into their pocket just means its become meaningless to them. Blissfully ignorant it could be now on their hands, inside their pocket.. even now inside the mask they just removed waiting to breathe in next time they put it back on.

 

 

 

Interestingly the staff at the hospital where my daughter works were long ago instructed that when taking off their mask they are not to touch the outside of it.  Simple reason - it could have droplet infection spread by a patient on it.

 

As she starts work on a covid ward tomorrow (her normal ward dealing with elective surgery patients was taken out of use on Boxing Day) I believe she and her coleagues will be getting something better than the normal disposable face mask and, I think, vizors instead of the goggles they eventually got earlier this year.  plus they have all had their first shot of the vaccine.

 

The advivce I was given by my surgery earlier this year is that it's ok when outside if you take care to socially distance and to turn away from people who pass at less than that distance especially if they are talking.  But basically avoid being indoors away from home unless you are wearing a mask and take particular care not to go anywhere that is crowded.

[Dagworth]

2 minutes ago, The Stationmaster said:

Interestingly the staff at the hospital where my daughter works were long ago instructed that when taking off their mask they are not to touch the outside of it.  Simple reason - it could have droplet infection spread by a patient on it.

But that is indoors in a place that is full of ill people and very likely to have a heavy contamination in the air. Not really the same situation as the high street shops. 
 

For “normal” life the mask is to protect others, not the wearer. 
 

Andi

[adb968008]

I put two comparisons to this...

 

1. Flatulence...

 

Someone breaking wind is releasing particles that you can smell.

They are passing through two layers (i prefer not to focus on what those layers catch, but like covid liquids, its good that they do).

But if you can smell it, its because your breathing it.

indoors or outdoors.

 

If your smelling whats two feet lower and behind them, imagine what your breathing directly facing them... if you walk into a shopping aisle and it stinks.. its because its lingering after they left.. just because they are gone, doesn't mean the particles have.

 

2. Dust

 

you cant see it, but it is everywhere. Covid is like dust.

outside its more likely to be dissolved and blown about, but until gravity, UV rays or humidity takes its advantage whatever someone exhales.. is floating about... putting 1000 people in a park next to each other, and spraying water on the crowd.. you know many are going to get wet, just slightly less if they are 2 metres apart... but wet they will get, and it takes time to dry.

its about your odds.. outdoor, dispersed by wind, corroded by UV and diluted by water means your risk is lower.. lower risk isnt zero risk, it just means youve a few stronger cards in your deck, but you can still go bust.

 

i always disinfect my shoes before I enter the home..again dust.. if you can shake dust off your shoe, you can shake covid off it. In your home dry air and movement can re-circulate it.  I learned this in Asia in 2003... I had susoected sars there, I lived my 20’s just like I see people living their 20’s here today.. but then it got me, and thats taught me a life lesson i’m hoping to cash in right now.

At the end of the day, its about what level of precaution your willing to take, the government advice is usually always the minimum requirement, however most see the minimum as the maximum.

I dont know how many people ive seen with a mask around their neck, or not covering their nose..its not just coughing people need protection from, admittedly its a high risk mitigation, but its not an overall risk mitigation... its an umbrella in the rain.. you still get wet, just not soaked... but you can still catch a cold in the rain if you get wet in winter.

 

Wearing a mask at all times outside is not going to make the situation worse, and in all probability, in winter is going to make it better.

 

I have been honestly scared for medical professionals in all this, I feel much better protection is available and i’m sure they know it too, but they make do with what they have.. thats professionalism.
 

Anyone not doing their best is doing them a disservice.

Edited December 29, 2020 by adb968008

[Nearholmer]

1 hour ago, adb968008 said:

its roulette and you’ll never know until its too late..

 

True, but unless you've had a clear-eyed stab at calculating the odds, you are unlikely to make proportionate decisions on that basis.

 

For instance, do you know how your personal risk from covid stands against all the other risks you are exposed to every day without much thinking about them?

[adb968008]

29 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

 

True, but unless you've had a clear-eyed stab at calculating the odds, you are unlikely to make proportionate decisions on that basis.

 

For instance, do you know how your personal risk from covid stands against all the other risks you are exposed to every day without much thinking about them?

are you suggesting I should just accept the risk, go out and party like its not there ?

ive never broken my arm, lost a leg so I dont know those risks, other than sensible judgement.

i have seen its impact... Ive had the same effects of it. Ive also suffered personal loss watching someone rise and fall for over 2 months in intensive care to just “flu”.

 

Just recently my brother in law lost his sister, his brother, his father to covid, my wife lost a grandparent. ive lost my best school friend  (same age/ same class as me.. saw his wife go into intensive care too leaving a 1 year old child into social care)...

you may think i’m over reacting, I think I have a healthy respect for this, but i’m sure your experience isn't mine, hence our differing opinions.

 

I try to avoid this risk as much as I can avoid it... ive no wish to unnecessarily expose myself or family to covid and want to see my child grow up.

I hate to say it, but if more people saw what this virus can do, and the impact on families losing loved ones, first hand rather than on TV, they may react differently too.

 

its all fun, playing it down, bigging up over reaction, until someone close to you gets hurt, then suddenly the slopey shoulders come out... I thought the same way... once.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 29, 2020 by adb968008

[rockershovel]

The figures lack context. 

 

 

 

 

[rockershovel]

15 hours ago, Pete the Elaner said:

Pessimistic or realistic?

 

I heard 15th hand that Matt Hancock said that the latest lockdown would last until Easter. I took that with a pinch of salt  & I cannot find evidence that he said exactly this.

I think it is more likely he said we may need to keep the lockdown in place until Easter.

Based on previous experience, it takes a few weeks to see any results from a lockdown then a few more weeks for it to bring the outbreak under control.

Easter in 2021 is early April, so I think a lockdown until then is a realistic appraisal.

 

Some months ago, I bet folding money that the then-new restrictions would continue to increase until year-end, and I’ve just collected those winnings. I bet that the current restrictions would continue until Easter, and my bookmaker closed that book some time ago - which is to say, stopped accepting further bets on something regarded as certain. Prices for betting on a further extension, aren’t worth wagering on. 

['CHARD]

6 hours ago, adb968008 said:

are you suggesting I should just accept the risk, go out and party like its not there ?

 

......

......

its all fun, playing it down, bigging up over reaction, until someone close to you gets hurt, then suddenly the slopey shoulders come out... I thought the same way... once.

 

 

From what I've read of Nearholmer's posts, I don't see these elements in his approach or attitude at all. 

 

Generally there appears to be a strong/ healthy seam of circumspection in everything he's posted.

[Nearholmer]

6 hours ago, adb968008 said:

are you suggesting I should just accept the risk, go out and party like its not there ?

No.

 

And neither have I “played it down”.

 

What I’m trying to do is use cold, hard numbers to calibrate my own natural fears, and suggest that maybe you might find some comfort in doing the same.

 

 

 

 

Edited December 29, 2020 by Nearholmer

[adb968008]

1 hour ago, Nearholmer said:

No.

 

And neither have I “played it down”.

 

What I’m trying to do is use cold, hard numbers to calibrate my own natural fears, and suggest that maybe you might find some comfort in doing the same.

 

Numbers.

my numbers are 5 deaths to extended family around me since September.

Another 5 deaths in my immediate community who I know.

 

i justified wearing a mask to myself in Jan this year, before this virus took off, my comments are documented here.

Numbers are for statisticians and historians, no one is immune.

 

I just want to do the best I can for my family, and your not going to tell me to lower my risk level just because chance of Covid is lower than some “sometime in your life you’ll get cancer” risk*... cancer I dont know to avoid.. covid I can try.

 

lets play numbers..

 

I look at the governments website, we have 200k in our local NHS area. The covid figures are at 10k.. we were. 1k between April and November.. 9k arrived suddenly over night, literally.. either I cant trust the numbers or 5% of the population actively has covid as of 1 week agos testing, who would have been infected 7-10 days prior.. which, with no change, those who dont test etc I have to believe is near 10% now.. i’ll double it to play safe 20%... thats a lot of people around me... even if the 5% was accurate.. its still a lot of people around me.

I presented my rationale for outdoor mask wearing before..

1. Putting emphasis back into public mindset 

2. Winter.. reduced UV, Humidity help extend covid outdoor viability

3. Many other countries (inc France) mandate it.

 

How many deaths do I need before you consider my natural fears (simply wanting to wear a mask outside) to be justified ?

20 per family, last man standing ?

 

*not fact, just examining the thought trail being presented.

Edited December 29, 2020 by adb968008

[Nearholmer]

Hey, I’m not telling you not to wear a mask outside, or telling you anything else come to that.

 

I’m suggesting something that I think might help how you feel about all this.

 

At that, I will leave it.

[adb968008]

58 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

Hey, I’m not telling you not to wear a mask outside, or telling you anything else come to that.

 

I’m suggesting something that I think might help how you feel about all this.

 

At that, I will leave it.

Fair enough.

I feel strongly about it.

Respiratory diseases are horrible, and you can take mitigation's to avoid them.

Imho mitigations are a responsible course of action, whatever the odds are.

 

Personally I think the government approach has been slow and minimal, which is why I think it is much worse here than other countries. Whats worse is its possible to have insights to possibilities of whats coming without being a scientist. Then having to live it around you, ive seen more ambulances this year than ive ever seen. I accept many peoples risk tolerance is much higher than mine. What frustrates me, is their high risk threshold, by default increases my risk whether I like it or not.

Other countries are much more respectful and responsive of this virus, why is that ?  
 

The only reason I see is economic, but the economic cost of covid is likely to 100year “war” bonds, hopefully mutualised and inflated away into the future, 1% on property sales. Every government is in a similar position and will want to cash in on that, so its nebulous... so why are we sacrificing people ?

 

 

Edited December 29, 2020 by adb968008

[APOLLO]

In the news today the Nightingdale hospital in London has been dismantled. Others are on standby / in use.

 

Not a good move, especially given the rapidly rising London stats / tier rating etc. WE have paid for those.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9095087/Londons-Nightingale-hospital-quietly-broken-arent-medics.html

 

I'm starting to worry about the NHS capability for non covid treatment in the New Year also.

 

Take care folks, just use common sense and Hands, Space, Face.

 

Brit15

[Dagworth]

The Nightingales are/were a white elephant, there was never the staff to be able to allow them to open. The proper hospitals are desperate for staff, there are something like 40000 nursing posts unfilled as is. 
 

Andi
 

 

Edited December 29, 2020 by Dagworth

[rockershovel]

10 minutes ago, Dagworth said:

The Nightingales are/were a white elephant, there was never the staff to be able to allow them to open. The proper hospitals are desperate for staff, there are something like 40000 nursing posts unfilled as is. 
 

Andi
 

 

 

My sister, a now near-retired Staff Nurse, predicted long ago that this would be the effect of making nursing a degree-entry profession and following that by casualising much of the support and lower tier staff. 

[adb968008]

22 minutes ago, APOLLO said:

In the news today the Nightingdale hospital in London has been dismantled. Others are on standby / in use.

 

Not a good move, especially given the rapidly rising London stats / tier rating etc. WE have paid for those.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9095087/Londons-Nightingale-hospital-quietly-broken-arent-medics.html

 

I'm starting to worry about the NHS capability for non covid treatment in the New Year also.

 

Take care folks, just use common sense and Hands, Space, Face.

 

Brit15

Just before London lockdown I was on the M40 and saw a blue light procession of 15-20 ambulances heading north. I wonder if that explains it.

[Gilbert]

1 hour ago, adb968008 said:

Just before London lockdown I was on the M40 and saw a blue light procession of 15-20 ambulances heading north. I wonder if that explains it.

Patients from the south east are being transferred out of Region. Certainly Gloucester has had some by helicopter (BBC interview with Director of Nursing this morning)

Edited December 29, 2020 by Gilbert

[lapford34102]

1 hour ago, rockershovel said:

My sister, a now near-retired Staff Nurse, predicted long ago that this would be the effect of making nursing a degree-entry profession and following that by casualising much of the support and lower tier staff. 

Absolutely right. No 2 daughter works at Uni that trains nurses, plenty of applicants and numbers applying were up this year but not enough places/funding. It should be one of the questions addressed when  we get out of this and the whole training system probably needs a rethink. Also this is the first year they are running the medical school, 100 places, applications north of a 1000.

Stu

[57xx]

20 hours ago, Bernard Lamb said:

Yes.

But I live at the other end of the town and that has a far higher covid infection rate than Gadebridge ward.

It has been odd how it has spread locally.

A follow up on the customers of one particular coffee shop would make an interesting study.

Today was a good time to go food shopping as there were very few people about and lots of special offers.

 

 

I used to work in Hemel up in Maylands, still have a lot of friends there, so been following the trends there too. Some strange pockets of "resistance", but they are slowly succumbing on the interactive map.

[rockershovel]

37 minutes ago, lapford34102 said:

Absolutely right. No 2 daughter works at Uni that trains nurses, plenty of applicants and numbers applying were up this year but not enough places/funding. It should be one of the questions addressed when  we get out of this and the whole training system probably needs a rethink. Also this is the first year they are running the medical school, 100 places, applications north of a 1000.

Stu

 

As a general comment on British professional and vocational training, there is a serious problem - failure to ensure the necessary professional experience, resulting in a high wastage of graduates who miss essential professional development between the ages of around 20 to 27, leave and don’t return. Or, of course, never enter. 

 

It’s interesting to note that the press are already beginning to refer to increased levels of nursing staff immigration from, in particular, West Africa, West Indies and India - “The Commonwealth”. 

[woodenhead]

2 hours ago, APOLLO said:

In the news today the Nightingdale hospital in London has been dismantled. Others are on standby / in use.

 

Not a good move, especially given the rapidly rising London stats / tier rating etc. WE have paid for those.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9095087/Londons-Nightingale-hospital-quietly-broken-arent-medics.html

 

I'm starting to worry about the NHS capability for non covid treatment in the New Year also.

 

Take care folks, just use common sense and Hands, Space, Face.

 

Brit15

The Nightingdales were a SAGE idea not NHS - the NHS uses what is known as the OPEL framework, currently Level 4 and to remain that way till April 2020.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/south-east/wp-content/uploads/sites/45/2018/11/NHSE-SE-OPEL-Framework-V-3.0-October-2018-TV-Only.pdf

 

It managed during the first wave and given the high levels of sickness of personnel within the NHS they cannot staff the Nightingdales, it can produce beds whenever it needs to but the critical care comes from people and it simply doesn't have enough people to keep the hospitals running and also fill Nightingdales with staff.

[Nearholmer]

To me the speed and efficiency with which the Nightingale hospitals popped-up always suggested that they were part of a ‘pandemic ‘flu contingency plan’, which was, quite logically, enacted once the near-certainty of the U.K. copping this one sunk in.

 

But, equally logically, they seem to have been specified to aid in a ‘flu pandemic, and aren’t quite the right tool for treating people afflicted by this particular bug. Not equipped as needed, and impossible to staff to meet the particular needs.
 

Personally, I don’t blame anyone for (a) not foreseeing the exact needs of this pandemic, or (b) enacting the pre-existing contingency plan in precautionary mode.

 

 

Edited December 29, 2020 by Nearholmer

[rocor]

13 hours ago, AY Mod said:

 

 

 

 

This lesson has been learned and remembered.

 

Do not kiss anyone with your mask on, because you will set them alight.

[Neil]

15 hours ago, John M Upton said:

The best bit about the two hundred odd Brit skiers in Switzerland debacle was when they did their midnight flit (did they pay their bill?), as soon as they were over the border in France, many rang the hotels demanding refunds.....

 

One of the buffoons has broken cover here where he claims to have done 'nothing wrong'.