Hornby 2022 Range - pre-announcement frothing - now closed

[newbryford]

16 hours ago, Markwj said:

Hold the phone!

 

 

I wonder if the Hornby 7am video will run late to spoil the start of Rapido's at 7.30?

 

 

 

[Legend]

1 minute ago, Suzy Sulzer said:

 

Rails ? im certain they dont stock Hornby ? 

 They don’t now . They got out seeing what was coming 

[TomScrut]

16 minutes ago, farren said:

Sorry of topic slighty but still related. If I order X from Hornby the price stays the same even if X then has multiple price increases before release. Is it the same for retailers on their orders? 

 

Hornby are supposedly honouring prices when selling direct but they are not allowing retailers to do so as far as my experience has been in this matter (with some retailers phoning me not long after the price increases last year to let me know and ask what I wanted to do). The price and RRP goes up for the retailers and whether they can (from a financial perspective)/want to honour or not, they cannot as Hornby has a discount embargo where retailers cannot discount more than 10% for an amount of weeks after launch.

[ruggedpeak]

5 minutes ago, newbryford said:

 

I wonder if the Hornby 7am video will run late to spoil the start of Rapido's at 7.30?

 

 

 

Most people have multiple screens and devices and are used to partially paying attention to all of them. They will be watching both at the same time, social media-ing about it simultaneously whilst posting selfies on Insta and probably complaining that Bachmann and others aren't doing a launch at the same time!

 

That's my understanding of modern life anyway.....

[Dunsignalling]

Problem with the the most modern MUs is that nearly all of them are ordered for a specific operator, and all too often a specific route. Any model will therefore come in a livery choice of one.

 

Therefore expect older ones that have had time to be reliveried or passed on to other operators to emerge first.

 

Also, an awful lot of people in this hobby are chronically loco-centric, tending to the collecting end of the spectrum rather than wanting to put together an authentic mix of stock for layout use.

 

Add in a widespread perception that models of multiple units are more expensive than they (should) need to be, and you have a market with its brakes dragging....

 

Very much the same conditions applied to coaches not so many years ago. There was a big gap between the Bachmann Mk1s and very much else in the way of the "proper" passenger vehicles we are offered nowadays.

 

John  

Edited January 8, 2022 by Dunsignalling

[Widnes Model Centre]

2 minutes ago, PMP said:

If you take time to read the thread it’s quite clear.

 

Hornby Tier systems came into place May 21.

Prior to that stock was allocated to dealers/wholesalers under Hornbys extant allocation procedures. It says that in their own press releases of the time.

 

Therefore a shop in 2020 couldn’t have been penalised by a tier system that didn’t exist. 

 

No, not quite right.

If you are going to criticise please be aware of the facts. The press release was in response to the media requesting clarification of the Tier System . The trade were informed much earlier than the 21st of May.

The Press Release wording had also  been slightly altered from the original to the trade. The trade were disappointed that a Press Release had even been issued. 

[TomScrut]

1 minute ago, Dunsignalling said:

Problem with the the most modern MUs is that almost all of them are ordered for a specific operator, and all too often a specific route. Any model will therefore come in a livery choice of one.

 

Or that there is a family of MUs, with plenty of liveries but the differences in classes are just that different that they aren't straightforward to do with the same tooling perhaps. Different car lengths, ends, doors etc.

 

I think the Aventras and the Civity would be good choices, but I aren't sure there are two classes from either family that could share a shell. Aventras have pretty much all the variations I listed between classes, although I do think 345s and 710s would be a good bet, anything with the TFL logo seems to sell well. On the Civity, I think the 196 and 197 are most similar but not the same shell quite (based on a conversation on another thread).

[phil gollin]

5 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

Problem with the the most modern MUs is that almost all of them are ordered for a specific operator, and all too often a specific route. Any model will therefore come in a livery choice of one.

 

Therefore expect older ones that have had time to be reliveried or passed on to other operators to emerge first. ....

.

 

Oh !   Excellent !

 

That means a 4-COR,  followed by a 4-LAV.

 

Then a 4-SUB and Class 455.

 

All long lived, with many liveries.

 

.

[Steamport Southport]

19 minutes ago, PMP said:

If you take time to read the thread it’s quite clear.

 

Hornby Tier systems came into place May 21.

Prior to that stock was allocated to dealers/wholesalers under Hornbys extant allocation procedures. It says that in their own press releases of the time.

 

Therefore a shop in 2020 couldn’t have been penalised by a tier system that didn’t exist. 

 

That thread appeared after many of us got shafted with our pre-orders. There was a previous thread that got very heated and was probably locked.

 

I now notice the main item I had ordered for £135 from Hattons is now an eye watering £217.99!

 

https://uk.Hornby.com/products/gwr-terrier-train-pack-era-3-r3960

 

That's one order that Hornby lost from me. 

 

 

Jason

[rembrow]

8 minutes ago, phil gollin said:

.

 

Oh !   Excellent !

 

That means a 4-COR,  followed by a 4-LAV.

 

Then a 4-SUB and Class 455.

 

All long lived, with many liveries.

 

.

Nooo not a 4 COR, I got one from Silver Fox last year,  and am now awaiting a  4 BUF that's promised for this years production. (They also have the parts for a 4 GRI as well, but surprisingly not a 4 RES, but that is promised)

Edited January 8, 2022 by rembrow

[ruggedpeak]

6 minutes ago, TomScrut said:

 

Or that there is a family of MUs, with plenty of liveries but the differences in classes are just that different that they aren't straightforward to do with the same tooling perhaps. Different car lengths, ends, doors etc.

 

I think the Aventras and the Civity would be good choices, but I aren't sure there are two classes from either family that could share a shell. Aventras have pretty much all the variations I listed between classes, although I do think 345s and 710s would be a good bet, anything with the TFL logo seems to sell well. On the Civity, I think the 196 and 197 are most similar but not the same shell quite (based on a conversation on another thread).

To clarify by modern I mean modern image, not just very recent MU's like 19x's etc. As we have seen with 15x's, 321's etc they should have a long operational life and will almost certainly end up being moved around the country over their lifetime. So plenty of opportunity longer term.

 

 

[Dunsignalling]

1 minute ago, phil gollin said:

.

 

Oh !   Excellent !

 

That means a 4-COR,  followed by a 4-LAV.

 

Then a 4-SUB and Class 455.

 

All long lived, with many liveries.

 

.

The "steam-overlap" types probably have better chances than most.

 

Many of the late/post BR and later EMUs (Mk3 shells and onwards) will soon be extinct having attracted zero r-t-r attention. The Wessex 442s are almost gone and the various Networkers won't be far behind. 

 

The older diesels are easier, with most having been cascaded or facelifted at least a couple of times. Even classes with limited geographical spread like the 159s offer a choice of NSE, three or four versions of SWT, with added SWR branding on two, plus the original and simplified SWR "colours".  

 

I don't envy the people who have to pick what to produce; I suspect they "can't do right for doing wrong".

 

John

[RichardT]

2 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

Conversely, whenever they did produce something of local interest (we're pretty parochially SR & GWR round here), he never got more than 5% of what he ordered. I always suspected dealers in the North East had the same issues in reverse!

ISTR that Model Railroader magazine published a variation of this as a well-known tip: New England road modellers (sorry “modelers”) hunting for specific limited production items should contact dealers in Arizona or Colorado as they were more likely to have those locos hanging around unsold - and vice-versa.

 

Sorry, OT again (although that particular train seems to have departed…)

 

RT

[The Stationmaster]

1 hour ago, Widnes Model Centre said:

 

 

Quite right Mike. I think the original poster was referring to Centenary products. But I am sure he will corrct me if I am wrong.

In my view the Banding/Tiers started then. I had placed my order for Centenary Items within an hour of announcements, only for it to be rejected as some items hadn't been allocated to us.

I'm sure that PMP is absolutely right about the publication date concerning the introduction of the tier system but you're also right as its introduction actually preceded the public announcement..  Plus what went on before the tier system was introduced was the law of the jungle albeit a jungle controlled -- so it is said in various parts of the industry - by one particular person.  Based on what I don't really think anybody knows and certainly doesn't understand (except when they suffer) items which were ordered are mysteriously un-ordered by Hornby.  there have neem allegations that in at least one case the un-ordering was dione in order to release models for direct sale by Hornby instead of them going to a retailer who had ordered them - I haven't got the faintest if there was any truth in that allegation.  I have m't got the faintest idea of there is any truth in any other allegations that retailers received short, or totally cancelled, orders for items which seemed to be readily available on direct sale from Hornby.

 

But overall the 'system' doesn't seem to have really been a system at all and some people have suggested (again I suppose made an allegation) that it was all a matter of personal whim. on the part of somebody at Hornby.  What does seem to have been commonplace is that the way in which Hornby took retailers' orders at 'new model year' time was something of a disconnect between what they would actually have to sell and what they had taken orders for - in other words they appear to have oversold.  Hence when stuff arrived, or even before then, once they began to aggregate retailer orders, they realised that someone would have to go short but there seems to have been no system other than whim to decide how that would be done.

 

In order to bring some organisation to that situation somebody at Hornby came up with the Tier system.  That would at least prevent some overselling although unless it involves an active database which is continuously updated as orders are taken there would appear to remain a risk of overselling in each tier as items are released to be ordered by that tier.  (What prompts me to say that is that it seems that I have heard that rationing has still taken place on orders placed after the tier system came into use.)

 

I think that overall the discipline of the tier system is going to be better than what preceded it.  That is also helped by getting rid of their trade wholesaler who quite happily sold to people without retail premises while proper Hornby retailers were being denied stocks of what their customers had pre-ordered (I saw that happen with the GWR 8 coupled tanks).  But the problem which is always going to remain is partly a consequence of the way Hornby do a big annual release and then take retailer orders en masse.   That can only work if they sell no more than they have already ordered from the factory - they can no longer shout downstairs to the production line to run off a few hundred more of whatever it is as they once did.   Estimating demand for anything is clearly something they are either not good at, or seem increasingly over-cautious, and it tends to turn round and bite them when they have to restrict supplies to retailers or on the other hand rush into over large orders for Year 2 which come then into a partially sated market.

Edited January 8, 2022 by The Stationmaster

[Dunsignalling]

1 minute ago, ruggedpeak said:

To clarify by modern I mean modern image, not just very recent MU's like 19x's etc. As we have seen with 15x's, 321's etc they should have a long operational life and will almost certainly end up being moved around the country over their lifetime. So plenty of opportunity longer term.

 

 

Yes, but I doubt we'll see them while there is only a choice of one livery.

 

IMHO, there is a bit of a Catch 22 in operation; the "up to the minute" mob want them, but a lot more people seem to model 5 or 10 years "in arrears". By the time they have acquired more potential liveries/geographical spread, they might have started to look "old hat" to all but the cognoscenti. 

 

Very tricky for the manufacturers, however much they might want to offer units r-t-r.

 

John 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

[Dunsignalling]

9 minutes ago, RichardT said:

ISTR that Model Railroader magazine published a variation of this as a well-known tip: New England road modellers (sorry “modelers”) hunting for specific limited production items should contact dealers in Arizona or Colorado as they were more likely to have those locos hanging around unsold - and vice-versa.

 

Sorry, OT again (although that particular train seems to have departed…)

 

RT

Exactly. But that goes against a natural desire to keep your local guy in business as a ready source of all the bits and pieces the "big boys" don't produce.

 

The OT stuff is just filling the time in until 10.01 (or 07.31) Monday.

 

John

[DutyDruid]

1 hour ago, Widnes Model Centre said:

Quite right Mike. I think the original poster was referring to Centenary products. But I am sure he will corrct me if I am wrong.

In my view the Banding/Tiers started then. I had placed my order for Centenary Items within an hour of announcements, only for it to be rejected as some items hadn't been allocated to us.

 

That pretty much sums up where I was coming from with my original comment.  The reason I latched onto the Centenary stuff as a particular issue with this was that I had particularly remembered one friend who used to use one of the shops I mentioned for Hornby and the other one for Bachmann.  It was his chosen Hornby shop that got kicked out of Tier 1 when it changed hands on the grounds that it was "A New Account" and he then had to scrabble around trying to find the things he wanted because the "other" shop which was still in tier 1 had been up-front with their regular Hornby collectors and had amicably decided who was going to get what.

[Legend]

If you stand back from it though , we are talking about rationing in a company that desperately needs to sell everything it can . The key issue for Hornby is manufacturing capacity . 

[Dunsignalling]

11 minutes ago, The Stationmaster said:

I'm sure that PMP is absolutely right about the publication date concerning the introduction of the tier system but you're also right as its introduction actually preceded the public announcement..  Plus what went on before the tier system was introduced was the law of the jungle albeit a jungle controlled -- so it is said in various parts of the industry - by one particular person.  Based on what I don't really think anybody knows and certainly doesn't understand (except when they suffer) items which were ordered are mysteriously un-ordered by Hornby.  there have neem allegations that in at least one case the un-ordering was dione in order to release models for direct sale by Hornby instead of them going to a retailer who had ordered them - I haven't got the faintest if there was any truth in that allegation.  I have m't got the faintest idea of there is any truth in any other allegations that retailers received short, or totally cancelled, orders for items which seemed to be readily available on direct sale from Hornby.

 

But overall the 'system' doesn't seem to have really been a system at all and some people have suggested (again I suppose made an allegation) that it was all a matter of personal whim. on the part of somebody at Hornby.  What does seem to have been commonplace is that the way in which Hornby took retailers' orders at 'new model year' time was something of a disconnect between what they would actually have to sell and what they had taken orders for - in other words they appear to have oversold.  Hence when stuff arrived, or even before then, once they began to aggregate retailer orders, they realised that someone would have to go short but there seems to have been no system other than whim to decide how that would be done.

 

In order to bring some organisation to that situation somebody at Hornby came up with the Tier system.  That would at least prevent some overselling although unless it involves an active database which is continuously updated as orders are taken there would appear to remain a risk of overselling in each tier as items are released to be ordered by that tier.  (What prompts me to say that is that it seems that I have heard that rationing has still taken place on orders placed after the tier system came into use.)

 

I think that overall the discipline of the tier system is going to be better than what preceded it.  That is also helped by getting rid of their trade wholesaler who quite happily sold to people without retail premises while proper Hornby retailers were being denied stocks of what their customers had pre-ordered (I saw that happen with the GWR 8 coupled tanks).  But the problem which is always going to remain is partly a consequence of the way Hornby do a big annual release and then take retailer orders en masse.   That can only work if they sell no more than they have already ordered from the factory - they can no longer shout downstairs to the production line to run off a few hundred more of whatever it is as they once did.   Estimating demand for anything is clearly something they are either not good at, or seem increasingly over-cautious, and it tends to turn round and bite them when they have to restrict supplies to retailers or on the other hand rush into over large orders for Year 2 which come then into a partially sated market.

I'd suggest that the only way to make the Tier system work would be if Tier one dealers had to get all their ordering done before it is opened up to Tier 2.

 

Of course, that may already happen, but I somehow doubt it.

 

Trouble with undersupplying initial releases then bunging out a second run with different numbers/names is that those who might have impulse-bought the first run have had chance to come to their senses. That's applied to me more than once... 

 

John

[Dunsignalling]

15 minutes ago, Legend said:

If you stand back from it though , we are talking about rationing in a company that desperately needs to sell everything it can . The key issue for Hornby is manufacturing capacity . 

Certainly more is needed and I think First Run batch sizes are definitely too conservative.  All to often, Hornby then compound the error on items that prove to have seriously undershot demand by overdoing things with Second Runs, (J15, D16, 700, S15, GWR 8-coupled tanks etc.)

 

It can't be easy, but I have a nagging feeling they could, and should, have got better at this by now.

 

John

Edited January 8, 2022 by Dunsignalling

[The Stationmaster]

5 minutes ago, Legend said:

If you stand back from it though , we are talking about rationing in a company that desperately needs to sell everything it can . The key issue for Hornby is manufacturing capacity . 

Is it?  We really don't know do we - apart from hearing about or feeling the consequences of their ordering policy?  Current manufacturing problems in China apart there would appear to be, or certainly was pre-pandemic, plenty of folk looking to make model railway items and some of them who were looking for work have good reputations when it comes to what they make.   Is it really that much more difficult to make an extra  500 or 1,000 of a particular model during its production run when you are buying that manufacturing slot in advance?

[adb968008]

If I understand it, most shops are Tier 2, I only know 1 shop in Tier 3…

 

Ive spoken to a couple of shops who are confused or reluctant to take orders next week, as they've no clarity on how this is going to work out.
 

Is this conspiracy to throw retail under a bus, or cockup between sales/marketing or simply a cloud of confusion thats forming through unclear communication ?

 

i’m just a customer, 

What i’m not understanding is if or how to reliably place an order on Monday knowing my chosen retailers have the manufacturers support to deliver it.

 

 

[Widnes Model Centre]

10 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

I'd suggest that the only way to make the Tier system work would be if Tier one dealers had to get all their ordering done before it is opened up to Tier 2.

 

Of course, that may already happen, but I somehow doubt it.

 

Trouble with undersupplying initial releases then bunging out a second run with different numbers/names is that those who might have impulse-bought the first run have had chance to come to their senses. That's applied to me more than once... 

 

John

 

Hi John, my earlier post. We were informed this week that Tier 1 Retailers can order from 10th January, Tier 2 will be able to have their orders looked at on the 24th January.

[TomScrut]

39 minutes ago, ruggedpeak said:

To clarify by modern I mean modern image, not just very recent MU's like 19x's etc. As we have seen with 15x's, 321's etc they should have a long operational life and will almost certainly end up being moved around the country over their lifetime. So plenty of opportunity longer term.

 

 

 

Yes, I was more getting at the ones I think would a good one to get sooner rather than later as orders seem to keep coming in for them.

[adb968008]

13 minutes ago, Widnes Model Centre said:

 

Hi John, my earlier post. We were informed this week that Tier 1 Retailers can order from 10th January, Tier 2 will be able to have their orders looked at on the 24th January.

Are Tier 1 retailers protected from future unexpected reductions in quantity, after placing their orders though ?

Are they any more secure ?

 

There has been a few occasions last year, I ended up either having multiple locos from multiple retailers or a scramble to find one…

 

I really don't want to place 3x pot luck pre-orders for items at 3x different retailers as I really dont want to miss…similarly I dont want a “maybe” to turning into a street fight on ebay to ensure Ive got it….

 

I just want to place 1 order at a time..reliably.

 

Whilst Hornby.com seems to be the only place thats “guarenteed” providing you pay the premium thats not exactly the spirit.

 

Edited January 8, 2022 by adb968008