Hornby 2023 Speculation?

[adb968008]

As were looking at screenshots, any guesses what this is, what was on the shelf of a TV interview last week of an interviewer relating to railstrikes.

 

My first guess was a 777, but the gangway at the front changes my mind.

 

 

Edited December 20, 2022 by adb968008

[The Black Hat]

14 hours ago, E100 said:

A K1 is a straight forward renunber or a black 5 for today. Transfers are available to convert maroon coaches into wcrc livery quite straight forwardly

The coaches are not quite so straight forwards if you looking to get them accurately. The coach ends have the steps removed, and they are maroon, so it can be a repaint of the coach. However, applying transfers to a standard maroon coach and a coat of varnish will get you fairly close. All depends how much detail you want... 

[Dunsignalling]

3 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

As were looking at screenshots, any guesses what this is, what was on the shelf of a TV interview last week of an interviewer relating to railstrikes.

 

My first guess was a 777, but the gangway at the front changes my mind.

 

 

What looks like the bogie extending beyond the body at the RH end suggests possible articulation.

[D9020 Nimbus]

For those wanting an Electrostar, Revolution Trains have announced one in N. There seems to be a general agreement that MUs with more than two cars are probably too expensive for OO, judging by the fact that Revolution haven't yet announced the 313/14/20/21 in OO, nor Bachmann the 319.

[markw]

8 hours ago, The Black Hat said:

The coaches are not quite so straight forwards if you looking to get them accurately. The coach ends have the steps removed, and they are maroon, so it can be a repaint of the coach. However, applying transfers to a standard maroon coach and a coat of varnish will get you fairly close. All depends how much detail you want... 

WCRC maroon is not the same as BR maroon it is a brighter more red colour, they also do not have the cantrail lining.

[adb968008]

3 hours ago, D9020 Nimbus said:

For those wanting an Electrostar, Revolution Trains have announced one in N. There seems to be a general agreement that MUs with more than two cars are probably too expensive for OO, judging by the fact that Revolution haven't yet announced the 313/14/20/21 in OO, nor Bachmann the 319.

Rock and a hard place then.

 

Modern image has nowhere else to go.

 

Retooling is depreciating game, I cant see that being a long term winner, quick look at whats left.. 01,06,13,26/27/33/35/42/52/67/60/70…thats older than a decade.

Whos really going to bet a £240 a loco retool on any of that lot.

Even diesel prototypes are done and down to odd ball shunters.

 

Adapt to a changing market i’m afraid, if manufacturers want to play post 1968 they are going to need to pull a rabbit out of that hat.

Personally i’d be betting on fewer sales and a long term game, than a mass quick win.. those days are behind us looking at whats left to pick from.

I dont think 1948-1968 steam is that much better. Theres a few to pick from, but looking at the market i’m not seeing steam sell out like it used to.

Edited December 20, 2022 by adb968008

[MattR]

Quote

Pullmans with cream upper band (not yet done on lit examples)

 

I'd sell off all my lit Pullmans and replace them with these if this ever happened!

[InterCity80s]

It's not like there aren't any MUs with more than 2 cars available. Hornby have done the 800/802/803, APT, 755 and a re-tooled VEP in recent years. Accurascale have announced the Irish 22000 in 3, 4 and 6 car variants. Bachmann have the CEP, BEP amongst others (am having some issues with their website atm but I'm sure there are more 🙂).

 

I daresay they might be perceived as more of a risk compared to a large steam loco or a popular diesel but they're pretty critical to anyone modelling a "modern" railway.

 

I suspect Accurascale might have something in development...

[InterCity80s]

As for 2023 speculation, I'd like to see:

 

Original livery/InterCity Executive/InterCity Swallow HSTs

Royal Train (thought they might have done that for 2022...)

VEP in Blue/Grey

 

I think there's a good chance they'll do the new livery LNER 225.

 

For steam, it would be nice to see a more prototypical rake of LNER teaks to go with the 4000 LNER Pacifics they make 😉 Something up to the standard of the LMS Coronation Scot rake.

 

[wombatofludham]

4 hours ago, D9020 Nimbus said:

There seems to be a general agreement that MUs with more than two cars are probably too expensive for OO, judging by the fact that Revolution haven't yet announced the 313/14/20/21 in OO, nor Bachmann the 319.

I'm sorry but there isn't general agreement.  If there was why would Bachmann re-issue their Grey Pullman six car unit?  Accurascale launch their3, 4, and 6 car 22000 units into the smaller Irish market?  Or, for that matter, why would Hornby bother to retool their lemon scented VEP last year and a newly launched Flirt in 3 and 4 car + power pack formats?

It's a bit like the old trope "electrics don't sell".  Several millions of pounds of investment by Bachmann, Hornby, Accurascale and Heljan show that oft repeated "agreement" seems to be commercially not the case.  I would suggest that the many millions of pounds being spent by companies in new multi-car unit toolings or retoolings would suggest their market research is a bit more reliable than the virtual equivalent of mates down the boozer claiming units don't sell over a pint.

[adb968008]

4 hours ago, D9020 Nimbus said:

There seems to be a general agreement that MUs with more than two cars are probably too expensive for OO, judging by the fact that Revolution haven't yet announced the 313/14/20/21 in OO, nor Bachmann the 319.

another way of looking at it…

 

There seems to be a general agreement that yellow locomotives  are probably too yack  for OO, judging by the fact that Revolution haven't yet announced any yellow locomotives in OO, nor Bachmann the yellow peril

😕

Yet they still seem to come.

Edited December 20, 2022 by adb968008

[Mr chapman]

16 minutes ago, wombatofludham said:

It's a bit like the old trope "electrics don't sell".  Several millions of pounds of investment by Bachmann, Hornby, Accurascale and Heljan show that oft repeated "agreement" seems to be commercially not the case.  I would suggest that the many millions of pounds being spent by companies in new multi-car unit toolings or retoolings would suggest their market research is a bit more reliable than the virtual equivalent of mates down the boozer claiming units don't sell over a pint.

 

The reverse also applies to stuff that "doesn't sell".  Like the 4CEP in N. People don't model 3rd rail because its not popular blah blah blah. They don't model it because the models aren't available. 

 

I'm predicting a new southern merchant navy from the low numbers. Union castle maybe? 

[adb968008]

Just to add to that…

 

Theres no Multiple units available in OO to buy today except.. online tonight I can buy, pre-order or EOI in the following

 

classes 101/104/105/108/110/117/121/122/128/142/143/144/150(1,2)/153/156/158/159/180/251/390/395/755/800/APT/APTE/HST/ Bil, Hal, Bel,EPB,MLV,HAP,BEP,CEP,VEP, 4DD

plus also Northern line tube, and Modern District line tube.
 

*bold… are either new toolings, announcements or tooling upgrades within the last 5 years..

 

And That list excludes anything out of production like 350/450 etc.

 

The gaps are obvious… its units (any age) with a pantograph, and DMUs built post 2000.

 

Given a few years back people (including me) were saying Electrics dont sell… in the last 2 years, Ive bought 86/87/90/91/92 and have pre-orders for the 89. Weve also got the odd bod class 80 coming, and 26500.

 

my wishlist for units is way longer than for locos at this point, and following the DRS37/4’s ive really not got any modern image loco gaps to fill after the 86/2. My orders for 2023 are bits and bobs not filling my boots in classes/liveries.

 

imo

If you build it, they will come.

If you dont build it, someone else will

if you rebuild it, only some will come.

 

Edited December 20, 2022 by adb968008

[TomScrut]

35 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

180

 

Not sure you can EOI/pre order/buy these as it stands? They are announced though, and if you're including announced but not purchasable yet then you need the 175 in there too.

 

For me, mainline express units seem reasonably well catered for, as are BR DMUs.

 

As you say, it's the stuff built in privatisation that's the issue. It's mainline intercity expresses (180/390/395/800-803) and the 175 and 755.

 

And the stuff Bachmann made and don't seem to want to do anymore.

 

FWIW, my unit tooling wishlist is 170, 185, 195, 220/221*. My pre-order list is a Northern 156, Lumo 803* and TPE 802. My shopping list if/when it happens is GC 180* and Northern 158. Maybe a Northern 142 as well.

 

Financially that stacks up to a lot more than what I want in locos or wagons.

 

*I'd probably only have two of this three, so it all depends on whether a 221 gets announced before the Lumo 803 turns up I think.

 

 

5 hours ago, D9020 Nimbus said:

judging by the fact that Revolution haven't yet announced the 313/14/20/21 in OO

 

Yet they have announced the 175 and 180.

[TomScrut]

1 hour ago, wombatofludham said:

It's a bit like the old trope "electrics don't sell".  Several millions of pounds of investment by Bachmann, Hornby, Accurascale and Heljan show that oft repeated "agreement" seems to be commercially not the case

 

Whilst I agree with what you're saying, it will be interesting to see how long the current/upcoming stocks of 86s, 90s, 91s and 92s last with retailers. There's a lot of AC electric locos on shop shelves (or soon to be) I think.

Edited December 20, 2022 by TomScrut

[Yankee]

Could we be seeing a Adams B4 in some form. 

Screen shots taken from Hornby Model World 2023 trailer.

Edited December 21, 2022 by Yankee

[Ravenser]

2 hours ago, wombatofludham said:

I'm sorry but there isn't general agreement.  If there was why would Bachmann re-issue their Grey Pullman six car unit?  Accurascale launch their3, 4, and 6 car 22000 units into the smaller Irish market?  Or, for that matter, why would Hornby bother to retool their lemon scented VEP last year and a newly launched Flirt in 3 and 4 car + power pack formats?

It's a bit like the old trope "electrics don't sell".  Several millions of pounds of investment by Bachmann, Hornby, Accurascale and Heljan show that oft repeated "agreement" seems to be commercially not the case.  I would suggest that the many millions of pounds being spent by companies in new multi-car unit toolings or retoolings would suggest their market research is a bit more reliable than the virtual equivalent of mates down the boozer claiming units don't sell over a pint.

 

3 cars is now marginal , 4 cars a risk.

 

That's in terms of new tooling . The VEP was I believe modest tweaks to the existing model (interior moulding I think) , Bachmann's Blue Pullman was a reissue

 

Accurascale (as their original Irish incarnation) have a different business model , evolved in Australia to make RTR viable in a small fragmented market. It's specifically designed to cope with markets where you can't sell repeated big runs. Half the population of Eire lives in Greater Dublin, so the limited geographical spread of Irish electrics isn't that much of a constraint

 

The Flirt is a bit of a gamble , but it is 3 or 4 car and it's the future for some of the rural railways . Hornby may well hope such units are sold to other operators.

 

We haven't seen any new 4 car Southern units tooled in recent years. I can't remember when the 350 was released by Bachmann , but I don't think that was very recent

 

For me , the big flags are the continued failure of anyone to do a Class 120 , and Bachmann's failure to reintroduce the Voyagers or scale up the 319

 

It's not just price that's the sticking point - it's space. In OO,  a 4 car unit is 4' long. In N , it's 2' long . Finding space to run a 2' train is a great deal easier than finding space to run a 4' train. Added to which, if youre modelling the South East , you need to find space for a 2 x 4 car unit train to look credible

 

I have a Bachmann Voyager , from when I was involved in a club project. It's spent over a decade in its box, because it is too long to run on my home layout. The said home layout blocks up the living room when it';s erected. I doubt if I'm the only one.

 

Hence , if you want to model DMUS/EMUs - long ones or running in multiple - then N or in future TT120 is the obvious place to go. That affects prospective sales in OO

[Ravenser]

2 hours ago, adb968008 said:

Just to add to that…

 

Theres no Multiple units available in OO to buy today except.. online tonight I can buy, pre-order or EOI in the following

 

classes 101/104/105/108/110/117/121/122/128/142/143/144/150(1,2)/153/156/158/159/180/251/390/395/755/800/APT/APTE/HST/ Bil, Hal, Bel,EPB,MLV,HAP,BEP,CEP,VEP, 4DD

plus also Northern line tube, and Modern District line tube.
 

*bold… are either new toolings, announcements or tooling upgrades within the last 5 years..

 

And That list excludes anything out of production like 350/450 etc.

 

The gaps are obvious… its units (any age) with a pantograph, and DMUs built post 2000.

 

Given a few years back people (including me) were saying Electrics dont sell… in the last 2 years, Ive bought 86/87/90/91/92 and have pre-orders for the 89. Weve also got the odd bod class 80 coming, and 26500.

 

my wishlist for units is way longer than for locos at this point, and following the DRS37/4’s ive really not got any modern image loco gaps to fill after the 86/2. My orders for 2023 are bits and bobs not filling my boots in classes/liveries.

 

imo

If you build it, they will come.

If you dont build it, someone else will

if you rebuild it, only some will come.

 

 

 

There aren't that many 3 car and higher units in the list. 

 

-The HST isn't a DMU . It sells as a pair of power cars, plus buy your own Mk3s

- Only individual trailer cars for the 5-Bel are available. Hornby sold a pack of two driving vehicles and you added trailer vehicles. The Arnold N version is now being re-run...

- The VEP is a modest tweak to the existing tooling

- The 158 should be a pretty staple item . It's taken an eternity to reappear , and the 170 is still missing in action. These are selling as 2 car units....

- The  395 Javelin is not in current production. Since 2013, it's only been run in 2020 (2 numbers). It was explicitly a (good) Railroad model

- The APTE was a one run special from Rapido, not in current production

- The Pendolino is sold as a 4 car pack, and buy your own extra coaches . They are currently (I think) a 10 car formation

 

There's a theme here. It's not that multiple units don't sell, it's that things get sticky commercially once you are trying to sell 3 or more vehicles in a pack. Nearly all your list is either 2 car or sells as a 2 car pack 

 

Unfortunately EMUs are normally 4 car units, and the 3 car examples tend to have limited range in a particular provincial conurbation

 

Tooling up a new 4 car multiple unit from scratch now looks like a step too far in OO. Space demands and price point are heavily against you

 

I agree that duplicating locomotives at ever higher standards of detail and ever higher prices looks like a game of rapidly diminishing returns, and that post Grouping steam is nearly all done as well. This is what I've described in the TT120 thread as "OO is becoming saturated"

 

It's not that much better in coaching stock. Basically every BR Mark has been done, every basic range of LNER stock, LMS Period 3 and bits of Period 2, most post 1923 GW stock and everything SR (Hornby's Maunsell suburban coaches are called 2-HAL and 2-BIL)

 

Finding suitable pre-Grouping coaches may still be possible but even there there have been significant inroads made

 

But the logic "MU's are all that's left , therefore they must tool up MUs" runs into space and price issues.

 

I'm fairly optimisticv about the future of 4mm modelling. I'm a lot less optimistic about the future of OO RTR manufacturing, and especially the business model of generating most sales from a steady stream of new tooling. I think we are reaching the end of that road.

 

 

Edited December 21, 2022 by Ravenser

[newbryford]

13 hours ago, The Black Hat said:

The coaches are not quite so straight forwards if you looking to get them accurately. The coach ends have the steps removed, and they are maroon, so it can be a repaint of the coach. However, applying transfers to a standard maroon coach and a coat of varnish will get you fairly close. All depends how much detail you want... 

 

WCRC coaches are a minefield. 

 

Many of them (maybe now all)  with a central door have the door sealed/footboard removed.

I can't see the big H going to that level of detail. FOs converted from FKs as well as others with windows filled, interiors changed. 1861, 1961, 99318 for example

 

Ok for the Railroad range though.

 

5 hours ago, markw said:

WCRC maroon is not the same as BR maroon it is a brighter more red colour, they also do not have the cantrail lining.

 

They used to have cantrail lining.

 

 

[Steamport Southport]

3 minutes ago, Ravenser said:

 

 

There aren't that many 3 car and higher units in the list. 

 

-The HST isn't a DMU . It sells as a pair of power cars, plus buy your own Mk3s

- Only individual trailer cars for the 5-Bel are available. Hornby sold a pack of two driving vehicles and you added trailer vehicles. The Arnold N version is now being re-run...

- The VEP is a modest tweak to the existing tooling

- The 158 should be a pretty staple item . It's taken an eternity to reappear , and the 170 is still missing in action. These are selling as 2 car units....

- The  395 Javelin is not in current production. Since 2013, it's only been run in 2020 (2 numbers). It was explicitly a (good) Railroad model

- The APTE was a one run special from Rapido, not in current production

- The Pendolino is sold as a 4 car pack, and buy your own extra coaches . They are currently (I think) a 10 car formation

 

There's a theme here. It's not that multiple units don't sell, it's that things get sticky commercially once you are trying to sell 3 or more vehicles in a pack. Nearly all your list is either 2 car or sells as a 2 car pack 

 

Unfortunately EMUs are normally 4 car units, and the 3 car examples tend to have limited range in a particular provincial conurbation

 

The first run of Brighton Belle trailer cars were sold individually. The next run they were in packets of three.

 

I had a nightmare trying to get a full set for my first one. Nowhere had the trailer cars but there was plenty of driving cars. The second set was easy.

 

Then they had no front coupling to connect the two sets if you wanted to run a ten car train....

 

 

Jason

[frobisher]

1 hour ago, Ravenser said:

The VEP was I believe modest tweaks to the existing model (interior moulding I think)

 

Quite major tweaks - the driving cabs are redone, the motor vehicle now has a metal chassis plus the motor bogie position has been changed to be in the brake compartment space where it should always have been.

[Dunsignalling]

7 hours ago, Ravenser said:

 

 

There aren't that many 3 car and higher units in the list. 

 

-The HST isn't a DMU . It sells as a pair of power cars, plus buy your own Mk3s

- Only individual trailer cars for the 5-Bel are available. Hornby sold a pack of two driving vehicles and you added trailer vehicles. The Arnold N version is now being re-run...

- The VEP is a modest tweak to the existing tooling

- The 158 should be a pretty staple item . It's taken an eternity to reappear , and the 170 is still missing in action. These are selling as 2 car units....

- The  395 Javelin is not in current production. Since 2013, it's only been run in 2020 (2 numbers). It was explicitly a (good) Railroad model

- The APTE was a one run special from Rapido, not in current production

- The Pendolino is sold as a 4 car pack, and buy your own extra coaches . They are currently (I think) a 10 car formation

 

There's a theme here. It's not that multiple units don't sell, it's that things get sticky commercially once you are trying to sell 3 or more vehicles in a pack. Nearly all your list is either 2 car or sells as a 2 car pack 

 

Unfortunately EMUs are normally 4 car units, and the 3 car examples tend to have limited range in a particular provincial conurbation

 

Tooling up a new 4 car multiple unit from scratch now looks like a step too far in OO. Space demands and price point are heavily against you

 

I agree that duplicating locomotives at ever higher standards of detail and ever higher prices looks like a game of rapidly diminishing returns, and that post Grouping steam is nearly all done as well. This is what I've described in the TT120 thread as "OO is becoming saturated"

 

It's not that much better in coaching stock. Basically every BR Mark has been done, every basic range of LNER stock, LMS Period 3 and bits of Period 2, most post 1923 GW stock and everything SR (Hornby's Maunsell suburban coaches are called 2-HAL and 2-BIL)

 

Finding suitable pre-Grouping coaches may still be possible but even there there have been significant inroads made

 

But the logic "MU's are all that's left , therefore they must tool up MUs" runs into space and price issues.

 

I'm fairly optimisticv about the future of 4mm modelling. I'm a lot less optimistic about the future of OO RTR manufacturing, and especially the business model of generating most sales from a steady stream of new tooling. I think we are reaching the end of that road.

 

 

I think that what represents "saturated" for Hornby almost certainly differs substantially from how it is perceived by others. 

 

If the OO market had already become so, or was in imminent danger of it, would Accurascale or Rapido have joined in, or Dapol reinvigorated its OO presence as it has?

 

Hornby's issues regarding its place in the scheme of things are just that, Hornby issues, and do not extrapolate, either wholly or, necessarily, even in part to other brands.

 

In my own case, over the past 3 years, I virtually stopped buying new Hornby OO locomotives, though I have still been acquiring coaches and wagons. Not because there aren't plenty of things I would like to buy (as I have described in earlier posts) but Hornby has been busy making other things! 

 

I currently have pre-orders in for more OO models by value at one time than since I retired a decade ago, but almost none of them are for anything Hornby has announced. I hope that may change in January, but I'll not be holding my breath.  

 

Hornby has made a necessary, if belated, diversification to reduce its dependence on OO, even if the wisdom of cutting new ground rather than entering an established niche may be debateable.  

 

As for Multiple Units, most modern 4-car ones (to me at least) appear to consist of a pair of driving cars and a pair of inner cars, so only two sets of main tooling should be required. The issue is partly to do with cost, but I agree that the major problem (as with modelling the modern main-line scene in general) is how much room is necessary to model more than a backwater convincingly.

 

John

Edited December 21, 2022 by Dunsignalling

[adb968008]

8 hours ago, Ravenser said:

 

 

There aren't that many 3 car and higher units in the list. 

 

-The HST isn't a DMU . It sells as a pair of power cars, plus buy your own Mk3s

- Only individual trailer cars for the 5-Bel are available. Hornby sold a pack of two driving vehicles and you added trailer vehicles. The Arnold N version is now being re-run...

- The VEP is a modest tweak to the existing tooling

- The 158 should be a pretty staple item . It's taken an eternity to reappear , and the 170 is still missing in action. These are selling as 2 car units....

- The  395 Javelin is not in current production. Since 2013, it's only been run in 2020 (2 numbers). It was explicitly a (good) Railroad model

- The APTE was a one run special from Rapido, not in current production

- The Pendolino is sold as a 4 car pack, and buy your own extra coaches . They are currently (I think) a 10 car formation

 

excuses dont change facts.

i can pick most modelshops out there right now, and place orders, take home or express interest in any of that lot.

Do you want me to give you examples for each…?

 

it maybe rtr of some models requires some creativity in the future as not everyone can afford a 5 car 377/7, there is absolutely nothing stopping it being made as a 2 car, with 3 extra cars to be sold separately.

Nothing has changed, as Britain returns to the 1970’s so should our approach… CKD was one route, but selling cars individually was another.

 

But equally in how products are tooled could be creative..

 

1. many MU centre coaches are simply outer coaches, with two inner ends, and even come with a full body length seam line to prove it !

2. body sides are themselves slab “slides” with variants like how Triang used to make its mk1’s.

3. Underframe and Roofs are also “pieces” inserted.

 

inother words its a full size kit, that needs assembling to the variation desired, but is overall very standardised set of parts used in multiple ways, overhead, third rail and with power.

 

Bachmanns 150/2 is so close to a 455 its painful to watch !

Its a pity they havent gone beyond to a 150/0 or 318 or even change the cab and do a 319 or a 320/321 or 456 !

 

Bratchell models has built a business for 3 decades doing exactly this.

 

https://www.bratchellmodels.com
 

 

 

8 hours ago, Ravenser said:

 

 

 

Tooling up a new 4 car multiple unit from scratch now looks like a step too far in OO. Space demands and price point are heavily against you

 

i bet this wont age well…. I might even give it less than a month, you might even be “doubly” surprised 😀

 

but meanwhile feast on this..newly tooled 4 car multiple unit from scratch. Whats more its a really extremely odd prototype, its not even a mass market model.
 

 

plus youve ignored the 4 car class 755 completely in your dismissive.

 

https://uk.Hornby.com/products/greater-anglia-class-7554-flirt-4-car-train-pack-era-11-r3964?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIt-KuqqmK_AIVkx4YCh2q4QJ0EAAYASAAEgIUgvD_BwE
 

 

 

8 hours ago, Ravenser said:

I agree that duplicating locomotives at ever higher standards of detail and ever higher prices looks like a game of rapidly diminishing returns, and that post Grouping steam is nearly all done as well. This is what I've described in the TT120 thread as "OO is becoming saturated"

 

It's not that much better in coaching stock. Basically every BR Mark has been done, every basic range of LNER stock, LMS Period 3 and bits of Period 2, most post 1923 GW stock and everything SR (Hornby's Maunsell suburban coaches are called 2-HAL and 2-BIL)

 

Finding suitable pre-Grouping coaches may still be possible but even there there have been significant inroads made

 

But the logic "MU's are all that's left , therefore they must tool up MUs" runs into space and price issues.

 

I'm fairly optimisticv about the future of 4mm modelling. I'm a lot less optimistic about the future of OO RTR manufacturing, and especially the business model of generating most sales from a steady stream of new tooling. I think we are reaching the end of that road.

 

 

So what do you suggest companies do ?

 

Surely your not advocating they all give up OO and goto TT ?

TT 120 as presented is a graveyard in my opinion. Its going to need to massively shake up imo, indeed had TT started with contemporary MUs it would probably stand a much better chance…. As it would appeal directly to those modelkers who dont have grey hair, dont have a big house, dont have as much income but have 3 more decades of enthusiasm and time to make space, build a layout and still have the exact same contemporary units around them.

The hobby will need to adapt, it has no choice as theres too many modellers in the hobby to give up and walk away, the market is too big to simply fade, or change gauge. 
 

like it or not, passenger locomotive haulage ended for the most part by 2005. The future of the real railway, therefore the future of the hobby is multiple units.
 

Additionally, when it comes to 1948-2005 in locos, it needs to widen its scope… wind the clock back 100 years for steam, imo theres a market for it, its the only steam that seems to be consistently selling out…secr D, Terrier, LNW Precursor, Caley, NER railcar, GW SRM, GNR C1, Marsh Atlantic, Stirling Single…. theres a very distinct pattern of success there.

Edited December 21, 2022 by adb968008

[Les1952]

8 hours ago, Ravenser said:

 

 

There aren't that many 3 car and higher units in the list. 

 

-The HST isn't a DMU . It sells as a pair of power cars, plus buy your own Mk3s

- Only individual trailer cars for the 5-Bel are available. Hornby sold a pack of two driving vehicles and you added trailer vehicles. The Arnold N version is now being re-run...

- The VEP is a modest tweak to the existing tooling

- The 158 should be a pretty staple item . It's taken an eternity to reappear , and the 170 is still missing in action. These are selling as 2 car units....

- The  395 Javelin is not in current production. Since 2013, it's only been run in 2020 (2 numbers). It was explicitly a (good) Railroad model

- The APTE was a one run special from Rapido, not in current production

- The Pendolino is sold as a 4 car pack, and buy your own extra coaches . They are currently (I think) a 10 car formation

 

There's a theme here. It's not that multiple units don't sell, it's that things get sticky commercially once you are trying to sell 3 or more vehicles in a pack. Nearly all your list is either 2 car or sells as a 2 car pack 

 

Unfortunately EMUs are normally 4 car units, and the 3 car examples tend to have limited range in a particular provincial conurbation

 

Tooling up a new 4 car multiple unit from scratch now looks like a step too far in OO. Space demands and price point are heavily against you

 

I agree that duplicating locomotives at ever higher standards of detail and ever higher prices looks like a game of rapidly diminishing returns, and that post Grouping steam is nearly all done as well. This is what I've described in the TT120 thread as "OO is becoming saturated"

 

It's not that much better in coaching stock. Basically every BR Mark has been done, every basic range of LNER stock, LMS Period 3 and bits of Period 2, most post 1923 GW stock and everything SR (Hornby's Maunsell suburban coaches are called 2-HAL and 2-BIL)

 

Finding suitable pre-Grouping coaches may still be possible but even there there have been significant inroads made

 

But the logic "MU's are all that's left , therefore they must tool up MUs" runs into space and price issues.

 

I'm fairly optimisticv about the future of 4mm modelling. I'm a lot less optimistic about the future of OO RTR manufacturing, and especially the business model of generating most sales from a steady stream of new tooling. I think we are reaching the end of that road.

 

 

 

On Hawthorn Dene and Croft Spa I needed a 4 car and an 8-car DMU to represent the trains running on the North Eastern region.   BR did at least come to my aid with there being a pair of units that were lengthened from 3 to 4 cars by adding a centre trailer.  However most 1st generation class 101/111 or 108 4-car sets had driving motor composites at both ends with the brake in the middle.

 

8-car sets (two 4-car sets coupled together) were used on Middlesbrough-Newcastle-Carlisle, York-Newcastle-Berwick and Darlington-Saltburn trains amongst others, with the buffet sets being half of a train on the longer routes.

 

Mr Simon built the sets for me by cutting and shutting a DMBS and a TS to create a DMC and a TBS, and in one case converting a TS into a trailer buffet.  Even getting hold of class 101 and 108 centre trailers separately was far from easy.

 

It would be nice to think someone would make one of the North Eastern Region's 4-car buffet sets, but it means tooling three different cars and having a power car that has seating throughout.   I'm not holding my breath.

 

Les

 

Edited December 21, 2022 by Les1952
typos as usual

[adb968008]

9 hours ago, Yankee said:

Could we be seeing a Adams B4 in some form. 

Screen shots taken from Hornby Model World 2023 trailer.

Not sure I like the rods on it though.

 

From that angle it looks like yet another body on a smokey joe chassis.

 

Given how tight filming of the first series was avoiding giving any clues at all, I doubt they’d commit an obvious fauxxpas of unveiling anything serious in the adverts for the new series.

Edited December 21, 2022 by adb968008