Hornby 2023 Speculation?

[APOLLO]

Lots of interesting comments here.

 

As to energy it's already stated it will go up in May (or so), but summer will be starting hence we will all consume less energy so what we pay then versus now (per week) will be less over summer due simply to using less. It's the winter of 23/4 that when the energy unit costs rise yet again around November and the heating load starts that will literally break many. A lot can happen, especially politically (Ukraine etc), for better or worse, before then. The Gov has stated the £400 rebate for all will not be repeated (it will be means / benefit tested), etc etc.

 

As to Hornby, I'm sure it will survive but change, it may even become a small but niche company, who knows?

TT120 is a hell of a risk to take at this time, but decisions were no doubt made a few years ago in economically clearer times. I wish them well but won't be biting. (I got bitten by Tri-ang ending TT3 production back in the 60's).

 

On a personal note, now aged 70, I've been collecting (to use) model railways since 1959 (TT), went OO in 1972 and American O in 1982. I, like many, have enough (well, far too many) models / kits to make / projects to do / started not finished / may never get off the ground etc. I won't be buying much more and certainly not £200+ locos that bits fall off and spares become quickly unavailable, as nice as they look. For me in todays (and tomorrows) economic climate those days have gone. I got some real bargains during Covid (both Model Shops & Ebay), I notice there is virtually nothing out there now (American O) at anything like what I paid, indeed the whole market for these models seems to have disappeared.

 

Anyway we managed to have a nice Christmas dinner yesterday even with half the family overseas, and will be having a quiet week ahead and over the New Year. I'm not doing much modelling as my layouts are in the cold loft & colder shed, but I make a point of spending at least half an hour with each weekly and keep the trains rolling.

 

My best wishes for 2023 to you all.

 

Brit15

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 26, 2022 by APOLLO
typo

[adb968008]

Its boxing day.

 

Weve had two pages of Hornby concerns already.

we've even got quotes from Hornbys woes 5 years ago.

 

my conclusion…

 

Perhaps some did not get a Trainset from Santa this Christmas, or maybe they get bored and put it back in the box already ?

For me Santa came from Wales, Ireland and Scotland this christmas, little from Margate… the economy must have been levelled up.

 

59,158 and 92, plus 1 Hornby Midland Pullman power car set.

 

ive been waiting 2 months for one retailer to give me a price on some Hornby mk4’s, but now they are closed until new years, and they are on sale elsewhere, and who knows what prices will emerge in January so I need to pull the trigger elsewhere.

 

So for me Hornby lost the loco christmas, but they have won the post christmas carriage war.

 

 

Edited December 26, 2022 by adb968008

[adb968008]

1 hour ago, APOLLO said:

As to energy it's already stated it will go up in May (or so), but summer will be starting hence we will all consume less energy so what we pay then versus now (per week) will be less over summer due simply to using less. It's the winter of 23/4 that when the energy unit costs rise yet again around November and the heating load starts that will literally break many. A lot can happen, especially politically (Ukraine etc), for better or worse, before then. The Gov has stated the £400 rebate for all will not be repeated (it will be means / benefit tested), etc etc.

Anecdotes suggest Energy companies have been front loading consumer reserves, using their customers accounts as savings accounts over estimating consumption this winter.

 

Come spring, I suspect prices will rise and but will reccomend using those reserves as a way of offsetting a % less direct debit increases due to the new price rise. You may find yourself growing in credit over summer, but promptly see all of that reserve vanish over winter 2023/4’s bills, leading to debits that need resolving in 2024.

The government is using energy companies as tax collectors, so its not going down whilst the market is what it is.

 

The alternative could be whacking great bills next winter. What happens in 2024 is anyones guess, but it is an election year.

No arguments about energy in our house, I put the bill in the wifes name. (Women are always feeling cold, leaving lights on etc).

Since then, Every light is turned off, the heating is her decision.. its bliss, indeed its turned what used to arguments into comedy moments for me now.

 

Did that years before the energy crisis, no kidding, the bill went down 10% overnight, best energy saving move I ever did…

Those looking for a model railway budget for next year consider this 

😁

 

 

 

 

Edited December 26, 2022 by adb968008

[Steamport Southport]

7 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

BUT. unless every pound spent on products from the "new guys" is money entirely new to the hobby, it's coming out of what might otherwise have been spent with a longer-established supplier. As the biggest of those Hornby stands to be hit hardest, which seems to be borne out by their recent figures.

 

Beyond hard-core collectors, we who regularly spend money on model trains do know about the competitors and that is increasingly affecting Hornby's bottom line. Their declining share in OO has to be a major reason why Hornby TT:120 was approved by the bean counters. If the core business had still been hunky-dory, such a gamble wouldn't have got a look-in.

 

Unless Hornby buck their ideas up, I for one will have more going into Rapido and Accurascale wagons this coming year than everything from Hornby. Indeed, if my Hornby pre-orders get delayed by an extra month or two, Hornby could easily earn zero from me in 2022. Not so long ago it was around a couple of grand most years, and that when locos weren't £200+ and coaches £50+ a throw.

 

OK, a lot of my "lifetime wish-list" has been fulfilled, TBF, a heck of a lot of it by Hornby. Because of that, whilst I'm still spending, what now takes my fancy are often more eclectic items (like a Rapido Jones Goods) that I wouldn't have previously considered. When Hornby regularly produced new things that fitted my core interests, they got the bulk of my spend. Now, relatively little comes through my door in red boxes and most that does is "nice to have" e.g., a rake of heavily discounted Collett corridors last year (which I confess have yet to leave their boxes) that I would have ignored at full price or if anything of greater interest was on offer. 

 

Whether TT:120 will result in rebirth for Hornby or finish them off is as yet unknown, but businesses with huge internet presences aren't immune from going bust. However brilliant the PR, it's the numbers that matter. If those are going down, ultimately, the business is too.

 

Whoever might pick up the pieces if that did happen is an entirely separate issue, but they could decide that Hornby's model railway side as it stands was as much a part of the problem as a part of the solution....

 

Of course, if there was a hiatus, with Hornby effectively going off the market for a while, that could change things drastically. The great unwashed might actually Google "model trains" rather than "Hornby model trains"* and the mass media might even become less lazy when mentioning the hobby. 

 

How might the Hornby name fare if it had to attempt a comeback as an effective new entrant after a year or so away, I wonder...

 

John

 

*actually, if you do that, quite a lot of other stuff comes up too! 😉

 

It might be a good idea actually reading the threads about these wonderful "new guys" and Dapol. But don't let facts get in the way of the Hornby bashing....

 

They aren't quite as good as many make out. Look at the 16XX, Dynamometer Car, Deltic, SECR wagons, Gunpowder wagons, GWR Prairies, Rails Terrier, SECR D, etc.

 

Bits falling off, rubbish mechanisms, livery errors, no lining on a very expensive coach, missing buffers, poor quality motion/valve gear, circuit board problems, etc.

 

All have issues that if it was Hornby would be 100 pages telling us that Hornby are finished!

 

As for the often quoted "Hornby bully the small guys" all the models they are accused of copying are in the shops usually one or two years before the competing model and usually a far better model. Look at the Terrier and Prairie for example. Why anyone would buy the other versions is bewildering!

 

Where's the Rapido Lion for example? The Hornby version has been in the shops for months. I would suggest it was Rapido jumping on the bandwagon rather than the other way around. Rails tried to jump in with 3D printed coaches yet Hornby delivered their version in about a month! Hornby still accused of copying....

 

Hornby are always late! I think we waited seven years for the Bachmann 94XX.

 

Awaiting the accusations of being a Hornby fanboy. Just putting things into perspective. All the manufacturers are having problems, yet it's only Hornby that gets a kicking.

 

 

 

Jason

[adb968008]

1 minute ago, Steamport Southport said:

Awaiting the accusations of being a Hornby fanboy. Just putting things into perspective. All the manufacturers are having problems, yet it's only Hornby that gets a kicking.

Its like Manchester United.

They too always get a kicking.

it shows they are number 1, with the best history, the most loyal fan base.

That kicking.. is passion,  mis-understood.

 

If the thread goes silent, then you know there is a problem.

Fyi I’m not really a football fan, so have no skin in that game.

 

[Les1952]

14 minutes ago, Steamport Southport said:

 

 

 

As for the often quoted "Hornby bully the small guys" all the models they are accused of copying are in the shops usually one or two years before the competing model and usually a far better model. Look at the Terrier and Prairie for example. Why anyone would buy the other versions is bewildering!

 

Jason

 

I had a Hornby Terrier then a Rails Terrier on NO PLACE.  Both are no longer in stock as failures-

 

The Hornby- nice but it suffered from Bachmann 74xx disease- the wheelbase didn't have enough play to cope with my Peco small Y point with a small point straight off it.- Not alone in this, DJM J94s have needed surgery and about 1 in 3 locos have failed and departed.  

 

The Dapol/Rails- ran much better but there wasn't room for Digitrains to put in a stay-alive when sound fitted.  Result is that it stalls on every dead frog point as soon as punters start breathing over the layout at shows.  Oddly enough the two B4s with a pair of wheels less run beautifully without a stay-alive, but the rudimentary compansation plus them being a big bruisers of  4-wheelers puts them in a higher league.

 

Both expensive locos- what are my workhorses?  Hornby J94s (plus a Dapol one) from years back, all sound and stay-alive fitted.  The Dapol one is one of the earliest, now with sound, stay-alive and a Lambton cab but will run all day quite happily.  Do I need high end locos on NO PLACE?  Not at all.  Hence my looking forward to the TT:120 J94, of which plans are for anything up to half a dozen on Broken Scar.

 

Les

 

[Dunsignalling]

32 minutes ago, Steamport Southport said:

 

It might be a good idea actually reading the threads about these wonderful "new guys" and Dapol. But don't let facts get in the way of the Hornby bashing....

 

They aren't quite as good as many make out. Look at the 16XX, Dynamometer Car, Deltic, SECR wagons, Gunpowder wagons, GWR Prairies, Rails Terrier, SECR D, etc.

 

Bits falling off, rubbish mechanisms, livery errors, no lining on a very expensive coach, missing buffers, poor quality motion/valve gear, circuit board problems, etc.

 

All have issues that if it was Hornby would be 100 pages telling us that Hornby are finished!

 

As for the often quoted "Hornby bully the small guys" all the models they are accused of copying are in the shops usually one or two years before the competing model and usually a far better model. Look at the Terrier and Prairie for example. Why anyone would buy the other versions is bewildering!

 

Where's the Rapido Lion for example? The Hornby version has been in the shops for months. I would suggest it was Rapido jumping on the bandwagon rather than the other way around. Rails tried to jump in with 3D printed coaches yet Hornby delivered their version in about a month! Hornby still accused of copying....

 

Hornby are always late! I think we waited seven years for the Bachmann 94XX.

 

Awaiting the accusations of being a Hornby fanboy. Just putting things into perspective. All the manufacturers are having problems, yet it's only Hornby that gets a kicking.

 

 

 

Jason

How others products compare, either equal,better or worse than Hornby is neither here nor there, though it might well average out.

 

What matters is that when they make a sale, the chances are Hornby loses one.

 

Putting my cynical hat on, the sure way to ensure a Hornby loco is delivered promptly seems to be somebody else making it too. Maybe that's why most everything else is delayed.

 

The Lion / Titfield fiasco was purely caused by hubris and unpreparedness on Hornby's part. Rapido did everything professionals should ahead of announcing; Hornby didn’t. Simple as that.

 

John

 

 

 

 

 

[nathan70000]

18 hours ago, Les1952 said:

 

I'm not sure about The Great Bear but the five Raven A2s lived a very productive life as they were as good in most respects as the original Gresley A1.  What they weren't was upgradeable, apart from gaining bigger tenders.   The one fitted with an A1 boiler (mainly to reduce works time by having a pool of spare boilers for the other four) was not really any better than the others.  As a result by the time their original boilers wore out it was more effective to replace them with more advanced locos than build new boilers to give them another 15-20 years performing at that level.    In mileage and performance terms they kept up with the original Gresley Pacifics, though became outclassed by the A3s.  

 

If a 12-15 year life coping with the expresses of the day isn't productive then the A1s, rebuilt Merchant Navies and Britannias fall under the same headline, all were well up to the job at time of (re)building but the job moved away from them.

 

Les

 

I certainly wasn't suggesting that the Raven A2s aren't a worthy subject for a model- in fact it's one of the few suggestions made so far that could tempt me to pre-order- but I do think they're unlikely to come from Hornby.

 

As for performance vs. the A1s and A3s, information is hard to find but most of the photos I've seen show them on secondary services which suggests that the LNER didn't consider them as capable as the Gresley Pacifics. 2401 was used on goods trips between York and Hull, taking a circular route via Market Weighton and Beverley before returning up the "main line" via Selby.

 

The fact that they didn't survive in to the BR era, even in rebuilt form, counts against them I think. Rapido might be more likely to consider doing them but I also think it would be quite difficult to make any OO model go round typical layout curves.

 

And yes, there were five- I always forget about 2404 City of Ripon!

[Downer]

1 hour ago, Steamport Southport said:

 

It might be a good idea actually reading the threads about these wonderful "new guys" and Dapol. But don't let facts get in the way of the Hornby bashing....

 

They aren't quite as good as many make out. Look at the 16XX, Dynamometer Car, Deltic, SECR wagons, Gunpowder wagons, GWR Prairies, Rails Terrier, SECR D, etc.

 

Bits falling off, rubbish mechanisms, livery errors, no lining on a very expensive coach, missing buffers, poor quality motion/valve gear, circuit board problems, etc.

 

All have issues that if it was Hornby would be 100 pages telling us that Hornby are finished!

 

As for the often quoted "Hornby bully the small guys" all the models they are accused of copying are in the shops usually one or two years before the competing model and usually a far better model. Look at the Terrier and Prairie for example. Why anyone would buy the other versions is bewildering!

 

Where's the Rapido Lion for example? The Hornby version has been in the shops for months. I would suggest it was Rapido jumping on the bandwagon rather than the other way around. Rails tried to jump in with 3D printed coaches yet Hornby delivered their version in about a month! Hornby still accused of copying....

 

Hornby are always late! I think we waited seven years for the Bachmann 94XX.

 

Awaiting the accusations of being a Hornby fanboy. Just putting things into perspective. All the manufacturers are having problems, yet it's only Hornby that gets a kicking.

 

 

 

Jason

Arguing that Hornby shouldn’t be ‘bashed’ because everyone else is equally bashable doesn’t make much sense. And in any case, I haven’t seen much in the way of bashing in this particular thread. For the most part it’s just been a reasoned discussion of Hornby’s problems and how they might be resolved. 

[frobisher]

1 hour ago, Steamport Southport said:

Where's the Rapido Lion for example? The Hornby version has been in the shops for months. I would suggest it was Rapido jumping on the bandwagon rather than the other way around.

 

That's timed to coincide with next year's anniversary of the "Titfield Thunderbolt" and was always going to be.  It was announced way earlier than they would likely want to have done so because some other company got putsie when they found out Rapido had secured the exclusive license that they were depending upon just falling into their lap.  The fact that Hornby were further ahead in developing a Lion is neither here nor there in this case.  Any "bandwagon" would be due diligence, and in this case Hornby were never on it.

[Ravenser]

9 hours ago, adb968008 said:

 

When Lima dissapeared, there was two frenzies that occured…

 

1. A consumer panic that increased the value of several Lima liveries / classes as it was seen obvious if you wanted class xyz it was going to be missing a while… A decent 31 with many of the 1990’s liveries still is.

 

2. A competitive frenzy, first in securing the toolings and the name, followed by other manufacturers seeking to duplicate Limas core range with newer versions as fast as possible.

 

But whilst Limas’ problem was its UK range, once cut loose, ViTrains emerged and is still a successful brand today,

 

With that Lima became a byline of history and set Hornby up for 20 years with a railroad range. This scenario applies to all manufacturers, and theres plenty of models in the last decade that have swam around in bargain bins, which I think are unlikely to be made again..at a price anywhere close to what we have enjoyed.

 

 

 

The British range was not the problem that brought down Groupe Riva .....

 

The problems were Jouef, Elettrotren, Rivarossi and Arnold.

 

Bluntly - Rivarossi bought a grab bag of medium sized brands and totally failed to integrate them . The couldn't even manage to centralise production in one factory, they were still trying to run multiple seperate production sites  across Europe until very near the end...

 

Lima's British OO range was obsolete. But the real Achilles heel was mechanical. Riko's obsession with the collectors' market and dismissal of modellers as unimportant meant that the British range had archaic crude drives with steamroller wheels because the British importer kept saying that the buyers would never run their models and the British market wouldn't pay for a decent drive train as they would never use it. 

 

The fact that almost the whole loco range has remained on sale for 20 years , having been given a reasonable DCC ready mechanism with decent wheels , suggests the real issue

 

There is a market there for reasonable budget models , and Hornby are almost the only people whpo p;lay in it. Why retool the Lima 66? The thing still sells, probably in bigger numbers than the Hattons and Bachmann models

[RAF96]

4 hours ago, Neil said:

I have a strong suspicion that whatever gets announced on Jan 10th won't be as interesting as we think it will be.

I shall pop back on the 11th to see if you change your suspicious mind.

[Edge]

Has there been a confirmation of the Jan 10th date for the new range? I appear to have missed it if so

[toby_tl10]

6 hours ago, Foden said:

Whether there’s talk between manufacturers behind the scenes on what is in the pipeline I don’t know, from what I’ve read I’ve picked up that some of the newer manufacturers at the table have more of a cordial relationship, and perhaps have some lines of communication and understanding between them, I admit I’m just speculating based on snippets I’ve read, and heard.

Revolution Trains vs Accurascale FNA-D...

[frobisher]

18 minutes ago, Ravenser said:

Why retool the Lima 66? The thing still sells, probably in bigger numbers than the Hattons and Bachmann models

 

And has done sterling service... But the opportunity is there to piggyback development off of their forthcoming TT model.  It is interesting to note that Hornby have announced a whole bunch of locos in TT they don't have modern tooling for in 00, and on the diesel front they're ex-Lima items currently in the Railroad range...

[D9020 Nimbus]

5 hours ago, adb968008 said:

everyones energy prices will rise next summer, dont kid yourself.

 

Next April, the cap for a "typical" house rises from £2500 to £3000. Then stays there for a further year, till April 2024. So no summer increase for domestic customers. And, if prices are still very high in 2024, I'd be surprised if there isn't a further extension — I can't see any Government causing a large rise in energy prices immediately ahead of a General Election.

[D9020 Nimbus]

36 minutes ago, Ravenser said:

The problems were Jouef, Elettrotren, Rivarossi and Arnold.

Electrotren were never part of the Lima Group. They were purchased separately by Hornby (slightly before Lima), and were profitable too… I think the only profitable company that Hornby had acquired.

 

Arnold went bust in their own right before being acquired by Lima, and Jouef on two previous occasions, despite being at the time the only French RTR manufacturer.

[The Stationmaster]

3 hours ago, Steamport Southport said:

 

It might be a good idea actually reading the threads about these wonderful "new guys" and Dapol. But don't let facts get in the way of the Hornby bashing....

 

They aren't quite as good as many make out. Look at the 16XX, Dynamometer Car, Deltic, SECR wagons, Gunpowder wagons, GWR Prairies, Rails Terrier, SECR D, etc.

 

Bits falling off, rubbish mechanisms, livery errors, no lining on a very expensive coach, missing buffers, poor quality motion/valve gear, circuit board problems, etc.

 

All have issues that if it was Hornby would be 100 pages telling us that Hornby are finished!

 

As for the often quoted "Hornby bully the small guys" all the models they are accused of copying are in the shops usually one or two years before the competing model and usually a far better model. Look at the Terrier and Prairie for example. Why anyone would buy the other versions is bewildering!

 

Where's the Rapido Lion for example? The Hornby version has been in the shops for months. I would suggest it was Rapido jumping on the bandwagon rather than the other way around. Rails tried to jump in with 3D printed coaches yet Hornby delivered their version in about a month! Hornby still accused of copying....

 

Hornby are always late! I think we waited seven years for the Bachmann 94XX.

 

Awaiting the accusations of being a Hornby fanboy. Just putting things into perspective. All the manufacturers are having problems, yet it's only Hornby that gets a kicking.

 

 

 

Jason

Maybe you should look more closely at the fact when it comes to 'who copied who?

 

The Terrier - Hornby only got onew out quickly (under 12 months) because they used an Oxford Rail project that was well advanced and its origins were pretty obvious in early sample illustrations.

Prairie - Hornby we well ahead but for whatever reason (the Terrier or money seem the most likely possibilities) production was delayed.  on Hornby's normal timescales fora new model it would have beaten the other one and would have appeared concurrently with the non-gangwayed GW coaches.

Lion is plainly obvious - rapido were showinga 3-D print n months before Hornby could show anything.  undoubtedly Jornby had it in their longer term plans but no doubt rushed it forward (ay yjre cost of delays to manufacturing the Standard 2 MT perhaps?).  And Rapido very clearly beat well and truly Horny to the Titifield Thunderbolt licence.   

 

In some cases Hornby have been ahead with proof they were happy to show that they were - witness what happened when Hattons/DJM announced a 'King'.  but there is quite a list of instances where they jumped in, rearrranged production schedules at the expense of delay to previously announced models., and tried to or actually did steal a march on something announced by someone else.

[Dunsignalling]

29 minutes ago, frobisher said:

 

And has done sterling service... But the opportunity is there to piggyback development off of their forthcoming TT model.  It is interesting to note that Hornby have announced a whole bunch of locos in TT they don't have modern tooling for in 00, and on the diesel front they're ex-Lima items currently in the Railroad range...

 

Which raises the rather amusing possibility that the 2023 announcements (or at least some of them) might have been hiding in plain sight ever since the TT:120 press launch.  😆

 

John

[newbryford]

6 hours ago, Coppercap said:

Valerie Singleton, Lesley Judd et al telling us to use "sticky-backed plastic" wasn't referring to sticky tape ("Sellotape"), rather it was sheets of sticky-backed vinyl sheets, which were (still are?) available in a multitude of colours and patterns, and used for covering Squezy washing up bottles and the like. My mum always said it was too expensive, so we never got to make any Blue Peter items that involved the use of sticky-backed plastic. We did always have (genuine!) Sellotape in the house though!

 

Fablon was the commonly available name of "sticky back plastic" way back when.

Squeezy bottles were always Fairy with the brand painted over and cereal packets had a large cockerel with a covered up "K"......

[Ravenser]

6 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

Bear in mind though that pre-pandemic, the Pecorama Theme Park accounted for a fair chunk of Peco's income. That will have been virtually wiped out for a while and may reflect more on their figures than any changes in the "product" side, which may well have received a boost during lockdown..

 

They have since been repurposing parts of the park to increase factory capacity, and all that may well take a year or two to settle down in the accounts before it becomes wholly clear what is affecting what.

 

John.

 

 

And on the other side , during the pandemic the hobby swung from going to shows and buying new RTR which sat in boxes - to building modest  sized layouts at home. 

 

That will have given Peco's sales a big boost. The fact that track has been in more or less short supply throughout the pandemic signals increased sales volume. ~If Peco were using their capacity on "government work" early in the pandemic - well that will boost the bottom line too. 

 

Given the repeated claims that the "collector" market forms a large slice of RTR sales (a claim I am a little sceptical about) , increased sales of track are not a good proxy for increased sales of RTR . They might go in opposite directions : more layout building = less collecting.

 

I repeat a previous comment . I'm reasonably confident about the long term health and survival of 4mm railway modelling (A bit more so than 5-10 years ago) . I'm much less confident about the future for OO RTR manufacturing, especially based on a business model of repeated retooling of existing models to a higher and higher spec, in the face of steadily escalating production costs.

 

On the Continent , once the HO market became saturated and prices hit the pain barrier , sales volumes fell by over 25% (in  cash values ) . Given that prices had risen sharply too, the fall in unit numbers of models made/sold must have been 33-50% over the period . The only players who made any headway in that enviroment were those offering budget ranges. New toolings from the main players largely dried up: not surprisingly when everything had been done , at least twice , the main players were on the edge of bankrupcy, and whatever subject you chose someone else already had partly-paid for tooling for it in their tooling bank.

 

We are not quite there, and I'm sure Hornby will still have a few new toolings up their sleeves for the Jan announcement. One possible option: two or three new-tool scale GWR clerestories. Hornby have a very strong track record with coaches over the last 2 decades but pretty well every significant type of post Grouping coach has been done, and we are now into pre-Grouping stuff. GW clerestories are as good a choice as anything.

 

we've now reached the point where arguably retooling Caley 123 and a couple of Grampian coaches  to modern standard looks a better use of investment money than tooling up yet another OO 37

[newbryford]

4 hours ago, Steamport Southport said:

 

It might be a good idea actually reading the threads about these wonderful "new guys" and Dapol. But don't let facts get in the way of the Hornby bashing....

 

They aren't quite as good as many make out. Look at the 16XX, Dynamometer Car, Deltic, SECR wagons, Gunpowder wagons, GWR Prairies, Rails Terrier, SECR D, etc.

 

Bits falling off, rubbish mechanisms, livery errors, no lining on a very expensive coach, missing buffers, poor quality motion/valve gear, circuit board problems, etc.

 

All have issues that if it was Hornby would be 100 pages telling us that Hornby are finished!

 

As for the often quoted "Hornby bully the small guys" all the models they are accused of copying are in the shops usually one or two years before the competing model and usually a far better model. Look at the Terrier and Prairie for example. Why anyone would buy the other versions is bewildering!

 

Where's the Rapido Lion for example? The Hornby version has been in the shops for months. I would suggest it was Rapido jumping on the bandwagon rather than the other way around. Rails tried to jump in with 3D printed coaches yet Hornby delivered their version in about a month! Hornby still accused of copying....

 

Hornby are always late! I think we waited seven years for the Bachmann 94XX.

 

Awaiting the accusations of being a Hornby fanboy. Just putting things into perspective. All the manufacturers are having problems, yet it's only Hornby that gets a kicking.

 

 

 

Jason

 

You are Simon Kohler in disguise and I claim my £10...................

 

😁

[Ravenser]

8 hours ago, adb968008 said:

Energy will become more of an issue next year, protection ends in April. This years energy still mostly came from Russia to Europe, with obscene prices paid from mid summer onwards. Nothing stops the Russia tap being turned off, and that storage level will need filling from a winter low, from January, not mid-summer…

The UK govt already indicated it will side with energy companies and use them as tax collectors…. Some estimate we will be paying £500 a month from summer.

 

CNN is the US is forecasting fuel poverty for 80% / 57mn of the UK population in 2023.

 

Inflation hasnt gone away, neither has recession.

 

All the above will start to eat companies, then jobs, then disposable income, which eats model railway spend.

 

Interestingly I find model railways interesting to study, as what happens here, generally is a year faster than the high st.. the hobby already had high inflation.. 20% with Hornby you might recall between summer 2021 and Jan 2022… that beat the price of Butter, which caught up in summer 2022.

 

 

 

 

Given that some of this might be spooking some folk reading , in areas far outside the hobby, it's worth pointing out that:

 

- The Goverment price cap on electricity will rise to £3000/year on "average" households from April 2023 and remain until April 2024. The £400 support grant will stop. While this is still an increase , it equates to £250/month - just half the alarmist forecast you quote

 

- Some US media outlets have acquired a very bad reputation for their poorly-based negative reporting of Britain in recent years, the New York Times being a particular offender. For many US media outlets and journalists, neutral objective reporting is not the game any more - there is an agenda and you need to get behind it and "build the narrative for change" . I would not rely on any US media organisation's reporting of Britain against our own eyes and ears and experience. Many of their reporters would struggle to locate anywhere in Britain (other than London) on a map, quite a few have never been here, very few have ever set foot beyond the M25

 

- German gas storage levels were at unusually low levels in the spring, possibly connected to the storage facilities then being controlled by Russian interests. The German govt has taken back control , and in November they were nearly full. The Russian gas restrictions have been in place for nearly 6 months now, much of the gas Continental Europe bought came from non-European sources, and so far as I'm aware Putin has not actually turned off the last 20% of the flow - which is surprising and interesting. Next winter may be more difficult than this winter - but this winter is looking quite a bit better than we were warned it might be , and next winter may very well be perfectly manageable . Assuming Russia is still able to conduct an offensive war next winter, which is not a nailed-on certainty

 

- I'm not at all clear what you mean by the Govt here "siding with energy companies and using them as tax collectors".  A windfall tax is in place - evidently negotiations to cap the charges from electricity generators who don't use gas and aren't already on a fixed-price contract failed

[Ravenser]

8 hours ago, Neil said:

I have a strong suspicion that whatever gets announced on Jan 10th won't be as interesting as we think it will be.

 

Given that the general consensus seems to be that nothing much beyond a few liveries on existing tooling will be announced, and none of it is likely to be delivered in the course of 2023 , I expect the announcement will be a lot more interesting than the consensus in the thread thinks it will be.

 

(the thread will of course be sprinkled with postings declaring that they will believe it when they actually see it, anyone can do Photoshop renders, only the naive would believe any of this will actually happen in 2023, and Hornby may not survive long enough now to get these  models to market... See the TT:120 thread.)

 

I can also predict that at least one element of the announcement will spark outrage amongst many, and there will be postings declaring that because of this the poster will not be spending any money with Hornby in 2023 in protest. 

 

Accompanied  with groans of regret at everything that is announced as new tooling , on the grounds that they wanted anybody but Hornby to do that coupled with confident assertions that Hornby will make a pigs ear of it , and that it's not worth buying at the price. Along with the expression of hopes that HJ/AS/Rapido/Bachmann/Hattons/KR/ AN Other will launch a rival model that will be so much better and cheaper and ensure the commercial failure of Hornby's effort.

 

I sense that some are gearing themselves up to declare that Hornby have blown their last chance , and this announcement seals their fate and consigns them to future collapse. That the announcdement betrays a total failure to understand the market, and clearly demonstrates Hornby are now doomed. Some of the ideas being floated are I suspect more about setting up benchmarks , things that Hornby can be declared finished for not annoiucing as new tooling , rather than models anyone actually wants for themselves.

 

We'll see. I don't for a moment think Hornby will be delivering a RTR C12, or a Class 114 or an LNER/LMS push pull set, or a Class 01 or anything else I might rush out and buy. But then I doubt if RTR revolves around my personal interests and requirements.  (I've managed to get through the last 20 years without buying a new Class 37 , even though to many a Class 37 is the central focus of OO RTR)

 

P.S What is striking is the lack of interest in discussing what Hornby might actually announce, coupled with the focus on possible retooling of models already available to a modern high -spec. That speaks volumes about how far OO is a saturated market now

Edited December 26, 2022 by Ravenser

[Mr chapman]

An olive green lord nelson with smoke deflectors would be nice.

 

I would assume that a model from each of the companies at grouping will be on the cards. Actually, looking at the coaches in the range I'm going to upgrade that to a train pack from each of the companies at grouping.