Thompson Vestibuled Main Line Stock (retooled)

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

...I do think we are at or near the peak of sales/prices owing to the demographics of modellers. The manufacturers will soon determine whether these prices are sustainable. If they are not, we should not presume that they (prices) will drop, manufacturing may just cease, or at least, be reined well back...

 

There's going to be a further downward pressure on prices thanks to demographics.

 

The slew of rather good RTR product at tempting prices sustained from 2000 to about 2012 - and there are still some bargains to be had right now if we are honest - have finished up largely in the hands of a group of people nearer the end of their lives than the national average. While some of this accumulated hoard will go straight into a dustbin when the former owner is no longer living to enjoy it, much of it is going to reappear for sale.

 

Bachmann et al will be competing against their previous sales: used or unused, and most of these items are every bit as good as when first sold. This point was lately very forcibly brought home to me, having just finished helping a daughter with her late dad's little layout.) If newly manufactured product cannot attract the retail price required, then very simply it will quickly no longer be manufactured. At least not in China: the manufacturers will be compelled to seek new low cost manufacturing locations to compete.

[Legend]

As a comparison the last Gresley coach I can find on Hornby's web site is the blue grey buffet now sold out but this has an rrp of £60.25 as yet we cannot say if the Bachman will be the same level of detail but modelling LNER coach formations has never been cheap.

This is an outlier I was in Model zone , WHS Glasgow today and teak Gresleys are priced 49.95. Not exactly known for their cheap prices I would think this is mrp

[Dunsignalling]

Pre-owned high quality models coming on to the market will undoubtedly have an effect on the overall shape of the hobby but it remains to be seen how much downward pressure it will bring to bear on the prices of new equipment.

 

My own experience in acquiring a number of models that I missed out on for one reason or another during the boom years suggests that the converse might be the case, in that the higher prices of new models (and those anticipated for re-runs not yet released) could push the prices of older items upward. Indeed, I believe that this is already happening,

 

One example; I purchased a mint/boxed Hornby Rebuilt West Country "Yes Tor" for renaming last year and found that the "going rate" (c.£110) was significantly more than I had paid for the same model new about five years earlier (c.£75). Some of this increase can be attributed to the law of supply and demand - Hornby haven't released any new versions of these for quite a while but it is also the case that, when "Okehampton" eventually turns up, it is likely to cost in the region of £150 and that £110 may soon look like something of a bargain. 

 

The manufacturers wouldn't be doing their job properly if they weren't already preparing for future demographic changes in their marketplace. Their recent behaviour suggests that their conclusions involve raising prices, reducing quantities produced, making more "lollipop" models to attract the grey pound whilst it is there to be attracted (everybody) and moving towards supplying direct or on a pre-order/subscription basis (Hornby, Rapido Trains and the various commissioners).

 

Any reduction in potential buyers will, in general, result in models being produced in numbers calculated to sell at price levels that will generate the desired profit margins.  

 

As for moving production to lower-cost producer countries, that is a factor Bachmann UK don't have any control over. For those makers who can contemplate doing so, it is not a process to be undertaken lightly. It must also be borne in mind that economic growth in many of the candidate nations is proceeding at a rate that might erode much of the potential saving by the time new factories are ready to come on-stream.

 

In short, what the future holds is a decline in the number of people in the hobby, both from natural causes and inability or unwillingness of others to participate in the market place at prices sufficient to support it at current/past levels of activity. Niche activities (which railway modelling already is) don't come cheap and, as niches dwindle in size, prices do the opposite.  

 

John

Edited August 15, 2015 by Dunsignalling

[Dunsignalling]

This is an outlier I was in Model zone , WHS Glasgow today and teak Gresleys are priced 49.95. Not exactly known for their cheap prices I would think this is mrp

Noted on Hornby's website as "Website and Concessions exclusives" and fairly close to prices they are listing for BR Maroon versions (which aren't) whereas there has previously been a significant differential.

 

Only Sleepers and Buffets so far as I can see so maybe this is just clearing out the inherently lower selling items from previous production runs. Who knows if they will be repeated.

 

John

[Legend]

Noted on Hornby's website as "Website and Concessions exclusives" and fairly close to prices they are listing for BR Maroon versions (which aren't) whereas there has previously been a significant differential.

 

Only Sleepers and Buffets so far as I can see so maybe this is just clearing out the inherently lower selling items from previous production runs. Who knows if they will be repeated.

 

John

Definitely a brake Gresley coach in there at £49.95 in teak if anyone interested. Lots of new Pullmans at £49.95 too. There may be others but I wasn't paying too much attention. The Modelzone in Glasgow has been stocked up in recent months and has a good range on display. Occasionally they run discounts as well giving 15- 20% off so it's worth keeping an eye on.

 

Anyway the price comparison was being made to demonstrate the absurdity of Bachmann prices , which I think it does

[Dunsignalling]

Definitely a brake Gresley coach in there at £49.95 in teak if anyone interested. Lots of new Pullmans at £49.95 too. There may be others but I wasn't paying too much attention. The Modelzone in Glasgow has been stocked up in recent months and has a good range on display. Occasionally they run discounts as well giving 15- 20% off so it's worth keeping an eye on.

 

Anyway the price comparison was being made to demonstrate the absurdity of Bachmann prices , which I think it does

They may or may not be absurd but neither you nor I know whether Bachmann want to price items at that level, or if they need to in order to get the production slots they require.

 

It is perfectly possible that Kader Industries aren't too bothered about Bachmann UK unless it can generate profits comparable to their other brands.

 

(incidentally, current Hornby Pullmans can be had for a bit less elsewhere).

 

John

Edited August 16, 2015 by Dunsignalling

[Andy Y]

But as I keep on saying, this is the wrong comparison, and what makes people like Bachmann think they can charge whatever they want , presumably up to £250 because it's still a bargain compared to a hand made version. This is a mass produced piece of plastic , with some very clever machines decorating it. It is not a largely hand assembled , hand painted coach. Yes there are possibly more assembly involved in this coach compared to Mk1s of 15 years ago , but it's still limited.

 

A response from Bachmann:

 

 

Increased prices over the last year or so have been explained many times. Manufacturing of model railway items is a very labour intensive business and many people are involved in the production of every model. David Haarhaus, Bachmann’s European Sales & Marketing Director explained in detail the number of components and how they are assembled to produce the finished product in a BRM DVD programme in an interview with Ben Jones, BRM Editor. 

 

Breakdowns of models into component parts have also appeared in the two latest most recent catalogues, one featuring a locomotive and another a modern wagon. Every component has a price attached to it for its manufacture and also assembly.

 

Every model is hand assembled and this is why prices have increased. As has already been explained labour costs in China have risen in accordance with Chinese legislation. These have resulted in increased prices that Bachmann simply cannot avoid, just as we cannot avoid 20% VAT being charged in the RRP of every model.

 

Just like any kit, Bachmann models progress down the production line to which parts are added at every stage. Contrary to the comments made by Legend, everyone is hand assembled and many hands will be involved in getting these coaches to market.

 

The Thompson coaches which are the subject of this thread are all new models and cannot be compared with the first generation releases. Yes they are models of the same prototypes but that is where the similarities end.

 

Dennis Lovett

Public Relations Manager

Bachmann Europe Plc

[Leander]

So, will the UK retail prices of products manufactured in China fall as a consequence of falling world commodity prices, most notably oil, and the recent devaluation of the Chinese renminbi? Only time will tell I guess.

[cctransuk]

A response from Bachmann:

 

..... and with that we could hope that the "It's not fair!" brigade would cease wittering - but that's not going to happen, is it?

 

The realities of life never were immune from challenge if some people found them inconvenient for their purposes.

 

Regards,

John Isherwood.

[Clearwater]

I thought the kernow pictures / videos of the O2 being assembled were very useful to show how much manual labour goes into making these things. Something similar on a quality coach would be good to see

[Ian Hargrave]

Definitely a brake Gresley coach in there at £49.95 in teak if anyone interested. Lots of new Pullmans at £49.95 too. There may be others but I wasn't paying too much attention. The Modelzone in Glasgow has been stocked up in recent months and has a good range on display. Occasionally they run discounts as well giving 15- 20% off so it's worth keeping an eye on.

 

Anyway the price comparison was being made to demonstrate the absurdity of Bachmann prices , which I think it does

Does it now ? Your dismay at having to pay higher prices is understandable.None of us like that.Making comparisons means judging like for like....which is where yours is misleading.Dennis Lovett informs us that the Thompson coaches are new tooling.Hornby Gresleys first went into production in 2004,when the world was a different place.There is an 11 year difference in their genesis.....and incidentally,the price of Hornby Gresleys has doubled since 2004.Absurdity is a strong word.

[Andy Y]

Legend; I thought you were a member of the 'Happy Club' on MREmag?

 

Do we need to make an 'Unhappy Club' for you here?

[R Marshall]

Personally, I think these are great coaches and I'd have a rake of them, at whatever price, if they were produced in N Gauge.

 

Blood and custard, please!

[Legend]

A response from Bachmann:

Many thanks for the response. At the end of the day it's an individual's decision whether they buy models or not.

 

As to happiness , I appreciate that many of my posts are whingeing on about value for money, but believe it or not I am a naturally happy chappy, and in true Scots fashion , never happier than when getting good value.

[Andy Y]

 I appreciate that many of my posts are whingeing on about value for money, 

 

I'd appreciate it if it was the last one in the same vein.

 

Let's see if you can be happy round here too.

[micklner]

A response from Bachmann:

    Interesting at the moment we are comparing prices for the excellent (other than the slight Tumblehome shape) Hornby LNER Coaches and something from Bachmann which at the moment because it doesn't exist and is of a totally unknown quality. Bachmann have only ever produced Thompson's in a totally incorrect Plain Brown livery. The have never done anything in "Teak" livery , until they are seen how does anyone decide to buy them anyway?. Take a chance ?, and if awful cancel the order , then the company and the retailer loses the sale, what bizarre situation Model railway is getting into !!. 

    Bachmann are still use the reason of Chinese wages for the price increases , as asked before how is everything else not increasing in price from China at a similar rate ?. Cant say I personally will worry to much more about it anyway.

 

   Happy club member before being asked  !!, theres much more important things to spend my hard earned on and thank god for  ebay wrecks to a bit of modelling thereon !!            

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

Pre-owned high quality models coming on to the market will undoubtedly have an effect on the overall shape of the hobby but it remains to be seen how much downward pressure it will bring to bear on the prices of new equipment.

 

My own experience in acquiring a number of models that I missed out on for one reason or another during the boom years suggests that the converse might be the case, in that the higher prices of new models (and those anticipated for re-runs not yet released) could push the prices of older items upward. Indeed, I believe that this is already happening...

Supply and demand among the customer base will rule as ever. I have watched as H-D boomed and busted in s/h trading values, then Wrenn; and in my opinion this is all down to large numbers of the interest group ceasing to be active. I cannot see the product of the last 15 years being immune from this effect.

 

When the turnover point comes, it will really bite. My guess is that the majority of what has been sold went to folks who were in the 50 to 70 age band circa 2000, typically with decent income and health. Most of them are still living, the oldest now 85. The 'conveyer belt' of life expectancy is about to really go into action unless I am much mistaken, and here comes the flood of 'released onto the s/h market'. That's a testable hypothesis, I am waiting for the cheap s/h likely to be readily available from about 2020.

 

Assuming the hobby retains some significant following (I think it will) the values for the last 15 years of Chinese production will rise again: around 2050

[Clive Mark]

I agree with Dunsignalling.

 

I bought a mint second hand Yes Tor for £125 over a year ago. At £110 you have done well.

[davidw]

Interestingly the price has been removed from the Bachmann website.

[Classsix T]

Perhaps Kader are sitting on their hands in terms of yet to be released prices, until the Chinese economy has settled down given recent developments on their stock markets?

 

C6T.

[micklner]

Or they have read the comments on here re the prices that are asking !!      

[Paul.Uni]

The RRP of £52.95 is back up.

Edited August 27, 2015 by Paul.Uni

[Tony Wright]

I am a railway modeller. Why would I subcontract my hobby?

 

For me a Bachmann model would require new bogies, couplings and gangways as a minimum too - but that would be the same either way, as is purely my choice.  Upgrading a £25 RTR coach with several add ons is economical against the Comet prices. £50 is breaking even...

 

Each to their own, but there is no law saying we all need to buy x number of blue/red boxes per annum to enjoy our hobby.  Is this RMWeb or RCWeb?  Not knocking the collectors market - without it we wouldn't have had half the choice we do have today - but collecting boxes is not why I am here.

I've only just caught up with this thread. 

 

I agree entirely with your description of your being a railway modeller and not subcontracting work out. However, for others, for whatever reasons, having 'professionals' do things for them or just collecting boxes may well be their only way of producing their model railways. That said, in my view, they'll never have the satisfaction of being able to claim it's their work. They are commissioners/facilitators/collectors - still enjoying model railways (which is their right), but not actual makers of things. 

 

As for Bachmann's putative Thompson corridor stock, I also think you're dead right in your upgrading of a £25.00 RTR carriage. I assume you're referring to the original Bachmann Thompsons in this (is that what they cost new now?). Though not referring to you specifically, I believe it's a great mistake to consider that the forthcoming new Thompsons have anything in common with the originals (which might have been the perception by some on this thread). Having spent at least two days at Barwell, acting (in a very small way) as a 'consultant' to the guys principally responsible, the amount of preparatory and investigatory work was incredible. Original drawings, hundreds of pictures and dozens of manuscripts have been consulted to ensure that these will be 'right', or as near right as can be expected from an RTR carriage. Though there are commonalities amongst the range, different details such as positions of ventilators, access steps, battery boxes, footboards and so on have all been factored-in and will be present as appropriate.

 

The comparison has been made between the proposed price of the new cars and a Comet equivalent. About the same? Having loaned several of my Comet Thompsons to Bachmann as part of my consultancy, looking at the CAD and mock-ups, I'd say that these out-of-the-box cars will be the equal of a very-well-made Comet example - superior, unless an MJT roof has been substituted on the latter. What price a Comet kit then? 

 

I'm not pleading Bachmann's case; the firm's models can do that. All I'd say is to reiterate that the new Thompsons owe nothing to the originals and so nothing will need altering on them to bring them up to the highest standards. When you consider what's wrong with the originals, the need to alter the roof profile, ends, buffers, gangways, sides, underframes, ventilator positions, battery boxes, etc, etc, will just not be there. 

 

Speaking generally, if the final price is perceived to be too high, then the choice is to not pay it. If there's a wish to 'do things yourself', then buy the old ones and rework them with Comet/Southern Pride/MJT components into most-acceptable, 'personal' models (as has been seen on this thread). Or, pay a professional coach-builder to make the equivalents for you - at eight or so times the price!

 

When they arrive, I'll be staggered if anyone is unhappy as them as models. And, if sales are good enough, the complementary catering cars will be produced (on heavy-duty bogies!) 

Edited August 27, 2015 by Tony Wright

[Jub45565]

Hi Tony,

 

To be honest that comment was as a response in general terms, not specifically about Thompsons.

 

I will require Thompsons in the future, & will go about it in the most sensible route. I quite agree that will probably mean the new Bachmann ones. Doing other diagrams will be a toss up though!

 

On the flip side of my comment, the Hornby Stanier none gangwayed stock is a better shape than the Comet ones (other kits are available) so I would base on the RTR offering every time.

 

To conclude my own personal opinion, if the accuracy is there then I will buy. Where mods are required (including different diagrams) it will be a choice based on the best route to get there.

 

As you say we all have different financial & time availability, & different standards we aim to meet. These new Bachmann ones will meet a good spec, & will probably release a flood of the old ones into the market if the market decides it is worth the cost of upgrading. There should be items available for all.

[JSpencer]

Bachmann is still pretty much in an experimental position at the moment, caught between, "it must have the super details..." and the "it must not be expensive...".

 

Both contradictory. If expensive sells, then expensive will remain, but if it does not, then the next generation of coaches will cut back on the details.

 

The problem is, we don,t know what the price will be when we preorder any more. I suspect most swallowed the increases until now, but as that grows, a greater proportion will cancel. This could see shops sitting on stock they initially thought had been sold but in the end was not. This too has knock effects. Deposits might be imposed, cutting preorders to nothing and projects cancelled or the next new coach stealing towards the lesser detail end, disappointing modellers (remember design clever).

 

I have two sets of birdcages on order, but I will drop one if £60 a coach is the norm when they arrive.