Hornby's Warley Announcements.

[brushman47544]

If the likes of Hornby and Bachmann are reading the debate about original Merchant Navies, I fear we're less rather than more likely to see a OO model as the debate reads as if they would never be able to satisfy the market.

 

Whilst the series 2 and 3 locos would give more numbering options for fewer tooling options, I for one would much prefer series one locos, even if that meant the choice of individual locos for complete accuracy was severely restricted. At the prices high spec models now retail for, I am very unlikely to buy another Clan Line or whatever just to have a streamlined MN.

[Karhedron]

seems to be a heavy emphasis commenting on 00 modes which I suppose is kind of instinctive when talking Horny, but maybe the odd disappearance from the Farish website of the N gauge Class 87 and 90 models could provide Hornby with some ideas for their next project in conjunction with Arnold?

 

The N gauge coaching stock market is well catered for these days with high detail models for the BR and post eras so are the diesels but the electrics far less so.

Like you, I hope that the Brighton Belle signals the beginning of a more extensive foray in N Gauge for Hornby but guessing what their next move will be is a tricky one. My take is that the Brighton Belle was an easy win for Hornby/Arnold. The R&D existed from the 00 version while Farish's Blue Pullman had shown there was a market for iconic luxury trains.

 

If they do further N gauge models, my guess is that it will be done cautiously and with carefully chosen prototypes. This will probably be unlike Bachmann who seem to be taking efforts to shrink a significant portion of their 00 range to N. Also, Horby's late arrival to the N gauge party means that several iconic trains have already been done in N gauge by Dapol, otherwise I would have put my money on HSTs and A4s.

 

As it stands, I think that the Hornby/Arnold line will remain small but hopefully will cover some nice Rule 1 prototypes. Based on their experience so far, I think that older Pullman coaching stock might not be unreasonable since this is iconic, long lived and not likely to be forthcoming from Farish or Dapol. Plus most modellers from Grouping to early BR era could justify a few coaches.

[Vistisen]

If the likes of Hornby and Bachmann are reading the debate about original Merchant Navies, I fear we're less rather than more likely to see a OO model as the debate reads as if they would never be able to satisfy the market.

 

 

 

Not to mention the fact that I doubt that their product range decisions are being made a few days ( in Hornby’s case) before going public, on the background of a few heavily frothing RM'webers in a recent forum debate.

Hornby can't win, If they wait until just before production to announce a product that someone else has just announced an intention of building, they get accused of a doing a hatchet job on a rival. If they announce items right at the start of development they get accused of producing vapourware.

As for Exeter...

How anyone can turn the fact that they have been 'shafted' by a factory (which is owned by their main rival) who only delivered a portion of what was ordered and then suddenly tells them that there are no plans to produce the rest of the order into some of the frankly paranoid conspiracy theories floating around astounds me.

Now there are rumors that they might have managed to produce more stock to fulfill the shortfall, and that also seems to be a sign that they are nasty, calculating bast..rds rather than them being praised for doing all they can to help alleviate a situation they are not responsible for.

[rovex]

Although slightly off topic - well absolutely off topic - what we obviously need is an Office of the Model Railway Ombudsman, quickly followed by an Office of the Model Railway Regulator.

 

The first could deal with complaints from consumers disappointed that a manufacturer had once again failed to produce an original build MN and could award compensation for hurt feelings and distress. And deal with complaints about under production and delays in issuing new models causing a modellers new exhibition layout not to have the appropriate stock.

 

The second could deal with evil manufacturers announcing long planned model releases of models shortly after a snew start up had announced the same model.

 

I shall get on to my MP straight away.

[Glorious NSE]

Although slightly off topic - well absolutely off topic - what we obviously need is an Office of the Model Railway Ombudsman, quickly followed by an Office of the Model Railway Regulator.

 

The first could deal with complaints from consumers disappointed that a manufacturer had once again failed to produce an original build MN and could award compensation for hurt feelings and distress. And deal with complaints about under production and delays in issuing new models causing a modellers new exhibition layout not to have the appropriate stock.

 

The second could deal with evil manufacturers announcing long planned model releases of models shortly after a snew start up had announced the same model.

 

I shall get on to my MP straight away.

Not to mention allocating S8 payments when somebody causes a delivery delay...  

[Roy P]

If the likes of Hornby and Bachmann are reading the debate about original Merchant Navies, I fear we're less rather than more likely to see a OO model as the debate reads as if they would never be able to satisfy the market.

 

Whilst the series 2 and 3 locos would give more numbering options for fewer tooling options, I for one would much prefer series one locos, even if that meant the choice of individual locos for complete accuracy was severely restricted. At the prices high spec models now retail for, I am very unlikely to buy another Clan Line or whatever just to have a streamlined MN.

I would........just saying.

 

RP

[stewartingram]

Quite agree but that is, I think, a consequence of the way Hornby get things wrong.  They produce something, the 2 BILs being the prime example, in relatively limited quantities because they are not entirely sure of the market and it takes off sales wise.  So they make some more, but now the problem they face with 'some more' is judging the size of the unsatisfied part of the original market - make the right judgement and you sell all of what you make, get it wrong and you can be trying to shift the things for several years.  Also pricing influenced the situation with the 2 BILs as there was a 'reserve' of unsold stock at full price while retailers offering reductions had sold out (so change your pricing policy - they have).

 

The same thing has happened with the Hawksworths although clearly not as badly as it did with the 2BILs but it does seem to happen more with coaches then locos (except where they simply repeat a previous running number, which then drastically reduces sales unless it is something exceptional.  Very easy I would think to get it wrong, not necessarily easy to get the numbers right on re-runs.

Taking this a stage further, from Hornby's point of view.

The original (small) batch of 2-BIL, and for that matter Hawksworths, I guess were priced so as to pay off the R&D  during that small batch production - in effect "turn a profit"? So subsequent batches have been "manufacturing production cost only" to produce; therefore any sold (still at the original price, or with an increase included to reflect new higher build costs) will have "turned a healthy profit". Then if they made too many in this later batch, they can be sold at "remaindered" price - ie a large reduction - and still more than break even. So if I am right, ALL of the batches have made a profit, Hornby is in a win-win situation.

Idle thoughts, with a bit of common sense business wise thrown in; who knows?

 

Stewart

[Guest Belgian]

Well I won't be quibbling if they settle on two distinct body shapes with three distinct liveries.Surely a consensus can be reached on ONE of the first batch? All models are a compromise anyway.

Before I make my final journey to the "withdrawn" line at Eastleigh,I would like the opportunity of recreating in miniature a return journey remembered from a summer Saturday in August 1958 from Yeovil Junction to Salisbury behind Exmouth Junction's 35003.I can still hear her now....

What wonderful memories we enthusiasts have: I pity those who don't have an interest in railways.

 

My enduring memory is of a 1966 Christmas expedition from New Milton to Waterloo in the late afternoon, with an Original Light Pacific (I think it was 'Spitfire') at the head and to see the smoke drifting or, rather, streaming, along the side of the train lit only by the internal lights and station lighting as we sped through. I was in an old Bulleid coach (soon to be withdrawn and thus somewhat devoid of maintenance) for most of the journey and it was sufficiently leaky for the wonderful perfume of poor coal to pervade the air inside, adding to the steam heating. What could be better?

 

JE

[Ozexpatriate]

The classic example of this was the Maunsell range, the BR Green ones sold like hot cakes with some getting re-runs with suffixes up to 'E'. SR Green and BR Crimson/cream versions moved a lot more slowly, with more discounting and quite a few still not hard to find new two or three years after release.

My recollection of the olive SR liveried Maunsell coaches was different. A couple of them made it to to an "E" suffix too and perhaps even an "F". Then they seemed to completely disappear from the catalogue. (Mind you I don't get to browse in UK hobby shops so perhaps some lingered, but I didn't notice them online.) There's no question in my mind that the initial two years of releases sold very well.

 

The crimson/cream coaches lingered for a long while.

[Ozexpatriate]

If the likes of Hornby and Bachmann are reading the debate about original Merchant Navies, I fear we're less rather than more likely to see a OO model as the debate reads as if they would never be able to satisfy the market.

Never say never. There are choices that can be made and many sensible alternatives have been discussed in this thread already.

 

If you mean satisfying the whole market with one set of tooling that covers one variant, then yes, I think we're all in agreement.

[Legend]

Although slightly off topic - well absolutely off topic - what we obviously need is an Office of the Model Railway Ombudsman, quickly followed by an Office of the Model Railway Regulator.

 

The first could deal with complaints from consumers disappointed that a manufacturer had once again failed to produce an original build MN and could award compensation for hurt feelings and distress. And deal with complaints about under production and delays in issuing new models causing a modellers new exhibition layout not to have the appropriate stock.

 

The second could deal with evil manufacturers announcing long planned model releases of models shortly after a snew start up had announced the same model.

 

I shall get on to my MP straight away.

Love it! I'm prepared to sacrifice myself and go for this high office Quango for a moderate six figured salary , huge expenses and first class return travel to China

[Ozexpatriate]

Although slightly off topic - well absolutely off topic - what we obviously need is an Office of the Model Railway Ombudsman, quickly followed by an Office of the Model Railway Regulator.

 

...

 

I shall get on to my MP straight away.

Yes precisely. Rather along the lines of what I was thinking here with the British Railways Modelling Board.

 

Love it! I'm prepared to sacrifice myself and go for this high office Quango for a moderate six figured salary , huge expenses and first class return travel to China

I think you'll find that the way such things (don't) work they'll offer the job to Frank Martin first.

[Guest Belgian]

Love it! I'm prepared to sacrifice myself and go for this high office Quango for a moderate six figured salary , huge expenses and first class return travel to China

You're obviously not the man for the job: you don't even rate yourself worth a seven figure basic salary, haven't asked for a multiple of your basic salary as a 'performance bonus', no signing 'welcome' bonus, no Ferrarri, no . . . etc.

 

JE

[rovex]

Love it! I'm prepared to sacrifice myself and go for this high office Quango for a moderate six figured salary , huge expenses and first class return travel to China

From my experience from working in such a quango, anyone with any actual experience is automatically ineligible. No what the post requires is someone with no interest in model railways but a lifetimes experience of living off the state running other quangos.

[Guest Belgian]

 

if Hornby were to launch only a 1941 MN or only a post-1952 version it might upset almost as many as it would delight.

 

 

With respect I see no evidence for this statement at all.

 

We accept we can't have everything and we work with what we are lucky enough to be given (nothing up to now so far as the original MN is concerned).

The least risky option is Series two and three. Even though I'd like a First Series, I've really waited long enough and time is running out.

 

I think 'if it is only one version' the First series would have to be it. There were the 'widow's peaks', a variety of deflectors, the nicely radiused curves on the valance, liveries from Black to Malachite (two versions), BR Blue and BR Brunswick and, to ice the cake, only one of the first series, no.35010, was amongst the first raft of rebuilds in 1956, whilst 35001/3/5/6 kept their casings into 1959. Only 8 and 9 lost theirs in 1957, 2/4/7 getting unmasked in 1958. (It was all an accident of when they were due General Overhauls).

 

JE

[robmcg]

I think 'if it is only one version' the First series would have to be it. There were the 'widow's peaks', a variety of deflectors, the nicely radiused curves on the valance, liveries from Black to Malachite (two versions), BR Blue and BR Brunswick and, to ice the cake, only one of the first series, no.35010, was amongst the first raft of rebuilds in 1956, whilst 35001/3/5/6 kept their casings into 1959. Only 8 and 9 lost theirs in 1957, 2/4/7 getting unmasked in 1958. (It was all an accident of when they were due General Overhauls).

 

JE

 

I fully agree that the first series would be preferable, as above the history of the first 10 covers so much of the war years, and the front looks so 'good', as well as the black livery option.

 

Would it be viable to add the body side 'rail' as an odd-on strip  rather than tool a separate body?  ...and have two body mouldings for the front if every MN was to be reproduced? I have little doubt that these things have been considered.  The early tenders were interesting too.

[Mike Storey]

Taking this a stage further, from Hornby's point of view.

The original (small) batch of 2-BIL, and for that matter Hawksworths, I guess were priced so as to pay off the R&D  during that small batch production - in effect "turn a profit"? So subsequent batches have been "manufacturing production cost only" to produce; therefore any sold (still at the original price, or with an increase included to reflect new higher build costs) will have "turned a healthy profit". Then if they made too many in this later batch, they can be sold at "remaindered" price - ie a large reduction - and still more than break even. So if I am right, ALL of the batches have made a profit, Hornby is in a win-win situation.

Idle thoughts, with a bit of common sense business wise thrown in; who knows?

 

Stewart

 

I cannot fault your logic, as that appears to be the case these days. However, there is another business model, and that is to keep them at nearer to full price on retailer's shelves, so that I and others can wander in to our favourite shop in a year's time and say "that looks nice. I'll have it". That;s how it used to work, but cash flow is so critical now that shelf longevity is considered as lost income to this year's books. That approach quickly killed UK manufacturing, where shareholder 6 monthly dividends were paramount (whereby the approach of Japanese, German and, for a while, Chinese companies was more oriented to long term gain), and could well kill MR physical shop retailing too.

[JSpencer]

I cannot fault your logic, as that appears to be the case these days. However, there is another business model, and that is to keep them at nearer to full price on retailer's shelves, so that I and others can wander in to our favourite shop in a year's time and say "that looks nice. I'll have it". That;s how it used to work, but cash flow is so critical now that shelf longevity is considered as lost income to this year's books. That approach quickly killed UK manufacturing, where shareholder 6 monthly dividends were paramount (whereby the approach of Japanese, German and, for a while, Chinese companies was more oriented to long term gain), and could well kill MR physical shop retailing too.

On the other side of the coin, Hornby have outsourced the warehousing now which means they cannot have stock sitting around without paying for it.

Given how quickly the BR £60 2-BILs went, they could not have had many sitting around and I humbly admit profiting from it.

While it may be cheaper than retailers, their postage to outside UK at least, is a lot more expensive.

 

I agree there may be flaws in this model. Bread and butter items like track are supposed to be something that stays in stock constantly. You cannot tell customers "please wait until Q4 of 2015" to finish your layout!

 

Times have changed, you need to order to fulfil demand, not too few nor too much. This means announcing things looonnnggg in advance and saying something like planned for 2016 release (don,t specify the quarter). Bachmann say their catalogue is for 2 years (although 3 is much more like it), Hornby should do the same.

 

Having seen some highlights, I think 2015 should be exciting when the remaining program is announced.

[Andy Hayter]

I cannot fault your logic, as that appears to be the case these days. However, there is another business model, and that is to keep them at nearer to full price on retailer's shelves, so that I and others can wander in to our favourite shop in a year's time and say "that looks nice. I'll have it". That;s how it used to work, but cash flow is so critical now that shelf longevity is considered as lost income to this year's books. That approach quickly killed UK manufacturing, where shareholder 6 monthly dividends were paramount (whereby the approach of Japanese, German and, for a while, Chinese companies was more oriented to long term gain), and could well kill MR physical shop retailing too.

 

 

Mike

 

From the post you seem to be levelling criticism at Hornby, but this could equally be levelled at the retailer.  He could put in his forward orders to over cover immediate demand and thus have models on the shelf.  Much as Hornby cannot afford to do this, neither can the shop - especially when his margins are squeezed from the supplier and also from the competition who have multipage adverts in the model press.

 

Having worked for a German company, I can assure you that cost of stock and cash flow are just as much issues there as in the UK.

[Mike Storey]

On the other side of the coin, Hornby have outsourced the warehousing now which means they cannot have stock sitting around without paying for it.

Given how quickly the BR £60 2-BILs went, they could not have had many sitting around and I humbly admit profiting from it.

While it may be cheaper than retailers, their postage to outside UK at least, is a lot more expensive.

 

I agree there may be flaws in this model. Bread and butter items like track are supposed to be something that stays in stock constantly. You cannot tell customers "please wait until Q4 of 2015" to finish your layout!

 

Times have changed, you need to order to fulfil demand, not too few nor too much. This means announcing things looonnnggg in advance and saying something like planned for 2016 release (don,t specify the quarter). Bachmann say their catalogue is for 2 years (although 3 is much more like it), Hornby should do the same.

 

Having seen some highlights, I think 2015 should be exciting when the remaining program is announced.

 

Times have indeed changed. I very much doubt that Hornby is paying for warehousing space on an actual pro-rata basis? Retailers are now getting a more level playing field with the box shifters, as far as discounting is concerned, according to the intent of the new Hornby terms of business (that we have made aware of).

 

No, the cash flow requirement stems from an immediate need from both manufacturer and retailer to cover fixed costs, which are absurdly high in the UK. This is occurring when the cost of capital is historically low, along with the margins. When interest rates rise, as is predicted for next year, I worry for the health of all concerned. It would accelerate this trend, if there is no recognition soon that the major players need to have a strategy for the long term survival of this hobby as a mass market business, Are they presuming that an Amazon-style business will prevail? If so (as is often suggested) that will be down purely to price-sensitivity, and the hobby as we know it, is fcuk'd. Discuss.

[Mike Storey]

Mike

 

From the post you seem to be levelling criticism at Hornby, but this could equally be levelled at the retailer.  He could put in his forward orders to over cover immediate demand and thus have models on the shelf.  Much as Hornby cannot afford to do this, neither can the shop - especially when his margins are squeezed from the supplier and also from the competition who have multipage adverts in the model press.

 

Having worked for a German company, I can assure you that cost of stock and cash flow are just as much issues there as in the UK.

 

I don't target specifically Hornby, and certainly not the struggling independent retailer. Plse see my reasoning above.

 

However, in Deutschland, matters are very different. Cash flow is not such an issue (tho' obviously closely watched for the purposes of governance) as fixed costs are much lower (outside Berlin, and variable costs can be extremely high) and shareholder issues are often consigned to family owners and the consortia of banks and other companies that have seed-funded and then cross-supported the business. I have had long term insider-knowledge of BMW and other associated German and Swiss engineering firms. They clearly do not see the 6 monthly shareholders' dividends as the be-all-and-end-all, unlike UK firms. Even LGB and Fleischmann were saved from the knacker's yard. Indeed, Bavarian and Swiss model railway outlets seem to have absolutely no problem with low turnover, as their margins are so high. is this good for German model railwayers? Evidently yes, for their business is adjudged to be worth a multiple of the UK, whilst their relative spending power remains lower than that of the average Brit (source: Economist magazine). Is it the average German gricer that determines this business model, or the manufacturers or the financiers? Or the Government? Answers on a postcard please, to G.Osborne, Third Eton locker along, 11 Downing Street, Londonski.

[The Black Hat]

What wonderful memories we enthusiasts have: I pity those who don't have an interest in railways.

 

My enduring memory is of a 1966 Christmas expedition from New Milton to Waterloo in the late afternoon, with an Original Light Pacific (I think it was 'Spitfire') at the head and to see the smoke drifting or, rather, streaming, along the side of the train lit only by the internal lights and station lighting as we sped through. I was in an old Bulleid coach (soon to be withdrawn and thus somewhat devoid of maintenance) for most of the journey and it was sufficiently leaky for the wonderful perfume of poor coal to pervade the air inside, adding to the steam heating. What could be better?

 

JE

 

Reading that youd think someone would start planning DCC Smell......

[Ozexpatriate]

Reading that youd think someone would start planning DCC Smell......

Yes, smells can take you back - they are very powerful.

 

 

I don't think I'd incorporate them were I to model the Doboy sidings that served K.R. Darling Downs on the Cleveland Line in south-east Queensland.

 

One of my university colleagues liked to joke about her mum's employment there. She would say "My mum puts pigs in packets".

 

QR double-deck hog wagons awash in porcine excrement in the Australian sunshine, located next to an abattoir and a open shed that housed a tannery - all this surrounded on two sides by a brackish swamp. A regular passenger carried a little vial of perfume. She would hold it to her nose when we passed Doboy.

 

No, I'll skip the DCC smells.

[Mike Storey]

Yes, smells can take you back - they are very powerful.

 

 

I don't think I'd incorporate them were I to model the Doboy sidings that served K.R. Darling Downs on the Cleveland Line in south-east Queensland.

 

One of my university colleagues liked to joke about her mum's employment there. She would say "My mum puts pigs in packets".

 

QR double-deck hog wagons awash in porcine excrement in the Australian sunshine, located next to an abattoir and a open shed that housed a tannery - all this surrounded on two sides by a brackish swamp. A regular passenger carried a little vial of perfume. She would hold it to her nose when we passed Doboy.

 

No, I'll skip the DCC smells.

 

Agree, we can skip that smell. But how about just a sizzling bacon smell??? Or cheese and onion?

[Hroth]

Agree, we can skip that smell. But how about just a sizzling bacon smell??? Or cheese and onion?

Don't need DCC for that, just open a bag of crisps...