Hornby announcement 8th May

[Edwardian]

 

I hardly expected some great revelations of anything new but the announcement of an announcement approach was suggestive of something a bit special and I think it's been misused although Hornby's website has no doubt been besieged today.  

 

And if Hornby aren't tooling up new models then I'm afraid in today's market they are signing their own death warrant.  The market craves novelty and novelty means something new even if it isn't both new and different.  ... if they want to grab attention for something like that then by all means announce an announcement - and then deliver something worthy of it.

 

 

 

Particularly well put.

 

Compare this with a Hattons, RAILS or TMC announcement ....

 

The retailers are making all the news, and, it seems, all the new models.

[jjb1970]

Hornby have two assets from what I can see. One is brand recognition, the other is their design team. The new models they have produced in recent years for the most part have been superb. I actually had more confidence in the management team they culled last year and really don't have much confidence at all in the current team.

[Edwardian]

Hornby have two assets from what I can see. One is brand recognition, the other is their design team. The new models they have produced in recent years for the most part have been superb. I actually had more confidence in the management team they culled last year and really don't have much confidence at all in the current team.

 

Agree on all three counts.

 

The design team is clearly a strength. Thank God it's not Oxford.

 

Which brings us to the management.

[Ravenser]

This is fascinating.  Given that I know nothing of diesels, which, therefore, all look more or less the same to my untutored eyes, I clearly recognise this one, with its distinctive widow's peak roof line.  I seem to see several of these pottering about whenever I take a train. So far as I can see, all modern diesels save passenger units look like this, so pretty common.

 

Surely someone already makes a model of this?

 

If not, what were Hornby thinking not covering this?

 

EDIT: I now realise there is a Class 59, so perhaps I have seen them?  So, after all, modern diesels do all look the same!

 

Yes:

 

- Class 66 is the "standard" Type 5 of today - everything else (67, 68, 70) is pretty niche. EWS replaced a lot of Modernisation Plan diesel locos with these : there's a reason why enthusiasts nick-named them "red death". Hundreds of 'em

 

- Bachmann already make a current generation 66 in OO - generally reckoned pretty good. Can't recall any significant complaints about it.

 

- Hornby have the elderly Lima effort.

 

- Class 59 was the "first draft" of the type , a dozen locos for the West Country quarries. Class 66 is the developed production version

 

It's a slightly curious announcement, in that Bachmann already have a well-regarded model in production. Unless Hattons really up the spec - in which case the price will be much higher - I don't quite see what extra Hattons have to sell.

 

Many modern generation models of diesel locomotives in OO have been sharply criticised and retools demanded - but I just don't recall any demands for retooled 66s 

[The Stationmaster]

The basic problem is they are largely relying on selling tarted up outdated models. In Business Studies it is called the 'Austin Rover' business model - and for a reason!

 

The poor recent results don't inspire investor confidence - and it probably means they are struggling to make a case for investment in new product lines.

 

One investor clearly showed what he thought of it all, and sold 16,000 shares just before the announcement (or was that just a coincidence?).  Overall the share price today has dropped although it has been in yo-yo state over the day.

[blueeighties]

So have Hornby now given up with diesels?

 

Class 08

Class 31

Class 50

Class 56

 

All excellent models, lots of folk wanting them in many liveries. I know as I respray them. Hornbys sales within the diesel and electric area must be pretty much non existent.

[LBRJ]

A reveal,in woodwork is part of the frame of a door or window. So it definitely is a noun 

 

As for Hornby, if they are reduced to re-issuing 1970s Tri ang trackside stuff to garner some cash flow, I am slightly baffled as to where they are headed

[Islesy]

If Paul is still around, maybe he can enlighten us?

 

As far as I’m aware, it meant no more than was intended, namely to keep one’s eyes open for an announcement. In my experience, to keep one’s ears to the ground means to listen out for the merest hint of what is coming...

 

 

 

.

[County of Yorkshire]

Three further thoughts I've had since this morning:

 

- What's happened to Skaledale? Hornby were very much the market leader here and this spawned Bachmann's Scenecraft and Oxford's 'Buildings' range, yet it sank without trace in 2018's announcements. Instead we get 50 year old plastic scenery tat at laughable prices, which brings me on to...

 

- Which market segment is the Grand Suspension Bridge, ACME station canopy and fencing etc aimed at? Hornby have patently signaled their intent to abandon the kids market with the termination of the TTTE licence, and with no successor range yet mooted for that market. Furthermore, no modeller worth his salt is going to pay £20 for a 1960's platform canopy when a) they look terrible (especially when a £205 Duchess is parked up alongside) and b) they are available in good new/used condition for 25% of the price on Ebay. Surely the volume nor margin make these 1960's hangovers worthwhile? There is also a credibility issue here too - utterly confusing marketing. 

 

- Focus on what you are good at. Hornby for me are the market leader in RTR steam-era coaching stock, and when they are good they are very good - of late see the GWR Colletts and Southern ex-LSWR rebuild non-corridors. Why then not commit to some new coaching ranges that can legitimately appear in eye-catching liveries and that can be hung off pre-grouping locos for the collector's and modeller's markets? Hornby are, for me, uniquely placed to mop-up here, given their track record and, dare I say it, quicker lead-times than Barwell. I bet if Sandwich put their minds to it they could beat Bachmann to market with some Bullieds, but what about some 1910-1930's coaching fleets that were long lived and could wear half a dozen liveries? GWR Toplights, non-corridors and a 'paneled' autocoach? LMS Period I stock? GNR/ECJS clerestories to hang behind Locomotion's Stirling Single and Ivatt Atlantic? LSWR Ironclads or Boat Train stock? There's a not-insignificant market here. 

 

All that being said, and as has been discussed earlier in this thread, you do think the market has changed irrevocably and Hattons, to me, seemed to have nailed the required business model:

 

- To be the designer, commissioner, wholesaler and retailer rolled into one (think of the margins - both GP and NP - as compared with Sandwich!)

 

- To play on said luxurious margin and price very competitively

 

- To offer overwhelming choice up front and capture the vast majority of market demand (this then opens up more wallets, which maximizes revenue. Not to be macabre, but this is a shrinking market given demographics, and thus why hold-off a livery variant for year 3 when you have an existing customer base for it now? One in the hand is worth two in the bush...)

 

- To prey on the 'exclusivity factor' (once they've gone, they've gone, thus spurring pre-orders which de-risks financially and is excellent for cashflow. See most varieties of the GWR 14xx and the early period OO Warwells - you now cannot get them!)

 

- Finally, to be masters of PR and marketing with well-timed announcements, lead-times made of levity, well-communicated timely updates, and slick use of digital and social media. (This breeds credibility, customer confidence, and helps fill the order book).

 

Whatever happens, it's all interesting!

 

CoY

[MarkSG]

As for Hornby, if they are reduced to re-issuing 1970s Tri ang trackside stuff to garner some cash flow, I am slightly baffled as to where they are headed

 

But the point is that re-issuing 1970s Tri-ang trackside stuff has zero development costs. And it is still the sort of stuff that sells into the train set market. There's plenty of it on eBay, for example - and some of the prices there are a bit eye-watering: https://ebay.to/2wqk2Ny 

[Dava]

It seems to me that predictions of Hornby's imminent demise are greatly exaggerated. Record companies have been plundering/recycling their back catalogues of 'classics' and minor works for years. An 800 with Paddington on the door will roll off the shelves. And maybe we'll be able to buy a Peckett without pre-ordering at birth!

[Darius43]

And the significance of the part plan of the DLR train was...?

 

Darius

[MGR Hooper!]

Quite like the additions to the 2018 range. I've put in my pre-orders for the Pecketts that I fancy namely the H&P one and the Port of London one. I would've loved to have added the Paddington Bear IEP however I can't spare the funds at the moment.

 

Personally I think Hornby has added items that are quite sensible and which will sell. I'm liking the GWR theme though I cannot afford it at all.

 

However I am not quite sure about the items like the platform fencing and footbridges etc. Those same ones seem to available easily as S/H products are fairly cheaper prices.

 

I've had an extremely good laugh watching people speculate and hype things up themselves and then get disappointed and moan about something. Hornby's only teasers were "Exciting News" and "#29 Surprises". The rest of it was pure speculation and over-hyping on our part. It's most likely that we've disappointed ourselves more than anything else. It was almost two weeks of wild guesses and grand theories. BTW I am struggling to find all the Oxford Rail stuff on the Hornby website...any leads??? LOL!

Edited May 8, 2018 by MGR Hooper!

[Steamport Southport]

So have Hornby now given up with diesels?

 

Class 08

Class 31

Class 50

Class 56

 

All excellent models, lots of folk wanting them in many liveries. I know as I respray them. Hornbys sales within the diesel and electric area must be pretty much non existent.

 

All in the current catalogue as far as I can see. Along with others such as the Class 60 and 67, Sentinels, HSTs, etc.

 

 

 

 

 

Jason

[Clive Mortimore]

EDITED

 

Don't worry Tim - if one of today's 'highlights' is the reintroduction of the suspension bridge which first appeared when I was a teenager (i.e a very long time ago, I'm now a pensioner!) I think you can rest assured that the giraffe car won't be far behind, if they can find the tooling.

I rang my mum a short while a ago.

 

"Mum can you remember when we were planning my first train set, I wanted that big suspension bridge?"

"I remember that, it was too big and expensive, why that was 1964ish?"

"Well can I have for Christmas this year because Hornby have re introduced it?"

"No"

"Why not?"

"I told you why not so it stays as no".

 

Clonk went the phone.

[brenn]

Perhaps we are lacking foresight as Dr Beeching once did and fail to see what the future may bring, maybe Hornby have commenced production on a selection of high quality models which will be released early next year and we are just being taken for a ride.

 

Who knows however what I can say is, today was an absolute disgrace. Is Hornby really stuck in 1982! We are in 2018 for goodness sake and whatever their financial situation may be, it's certainly not right to mislead the modelling community by saying "29 surprises" when they go on to release a product page of old Triang bridges and plastic moulds being sold for absurd prices. Yes the new Pecket liveries were a good idea and so was the Blue Coronation but come on Hornby, you are loosing your customers! Dapol is here to stay, Hattons is here to stay, Rails exclusives are here to stay. Hornby you have new competition, so stay fresh, bring new ideas to the table otherwise you will go bankrupt.

 

Many thanks, Rory

Totally agree with this. The whole of the 2018 range lacks much in the way of vision to me.

 

Brenn

[Spannerman]

Looking at this announcement it seems we'll soon be resurrecting Zero 1?

 

Personally this smacks of a last throw of the dice with Simon Kohler sticking to what he knows.

 

I hope all goes well with Hornby but this seems a backwards step from where they were 18-24 months ago with good releases and a well presented engine shed.

 

Nik

[Steamport Southport]

And the significance of the part plan of the DLR train was...?

 

Darius

 

Already been discussed, but the gist of it is the Port Of London Railway was where the DLR is now.

 

 

 

Jason

[jjb1970]

Looking at this announcement it seems we'll soon be resurrecting Zero 1?

 

Personally this smacks of a last throw of the dice with Simon Kohler sticking to what he knows.

 

I hope all goes well with Hornby but this seems a backwards step from where they were 18-24 months ago with good releases and a well presented engine shed.

 

Nik

Sums it all up. Not confidence inspiring. I think they have been in reverse since culling the last management team. That team had a lot of questions around whether they would be able to turn Hornby around but at least the momentum in terms of products and communication was very positive.

[Mike Storey]

The announcement was a disappointment, and badly thought through. That is for sure.

 

But I have re-read the Hornby interim statement to the Stock Market from early April, in conjunction with their planned reduction in capital investment in 2017/18 (to £1.5m), from last year's Annual Report. The statement recognised the need for far greater investment, and was seeking banking and shareholder agreement and arrangements to secure that. The extra capital was raised through extra share issue (hence the almost automatic reduction in share value that resulted). The banking convenant waiver must have been successful. Full details will be explained in their Annual Report in mid-June.

 

I would conclude they have been on a holding pattern, whilst that took place, and only now (if all is in place) can make the necessary commitments to new models. So we should expect something more worthwhile over the next year or two. But we must await mid-June to be told that is indeed their future strategy.

 

But meanwhile, I guess they could not publicly admit they have little new on offer. Given the slwodown on Bachmann output (also perhaps partly due to a cash flow problem, given the policy change by Kader to charging true costs to subsidiaries). It is evident that Hattons, Kernow and Rails have been well aware of this hiatus as it developed, and have stepped into the breach to take good advantage. Such is business. 

[classy52]

So have Hornby now given up with diesels?

 

Class 08

Class 31

Class 50

Class 56

 

All excellent models, lots of folk wanting them in many liveries. I know as I respray them. Hornbys sales within the diesel and electric area must be pretty much non existent.

 

You forgot to mention the Class 60 which again Hornby have dropped the ball big time by not doing another DB Schenker Red 60 let alone ignoring the Class 56 liveries which haven't been done yet i.e. UKRL & further Colas variants.

[wombatofludham]

Yes:

 

 

It's a slightly curious announcement, in that Bachmann already have a well-regarded model in production. Unless Hattons really up the spec - in which case the price will be much higher - I don't quite see what extra Hattons have to sell.

 

Many modern generation models of diesel locomotives in OO have been sharply criticised and retools demanded - but I just don't recall any demands for retooled 66s

The Bachmann 66 does have flaws in the underframe, and detail differences that occurred in the production fleet are not replicated in the Bachmann model. There have been a growing number of people asking for a revised 66, probably not around here as it doesn't boil water, but the Hattons model not only appears to be committing to model all the detail differences, but also improve the DCC and DCC sound offer, all at prices that are at what Bachmann charges for their one size fits all model.

 

Seriously, I can see this being a real challenge to the Bachmann model and a real banker for Hattons.

[Winter123]

So have Hornby now given up with diesels?

 

Class 08

Class 31

Class 50

Class 56

 

All excellent models, lots of folk wanting them in many liveries. I know as I respray them. Hornbys sales within the diesel and electric area must be pretty much non existent.

Well I guess there are the Kernow Limited Edition 31's and 50's and also the 87's and Loadhaul 60 but I totally get where you're coming from. If new/revised liveries of anything were revealed as part of the January announcement that would have been great. However, I don't think making a statement in May as what merely appears to be a continuation of their annual offerings required the "big announcement" treatment.

[Coryton]

Hornby have two assets from what I can see. One is brand recognition, 

 

I do wonder about how long this will really matter - I don't think the current generation of children are particularly aware of Hornby as a brand. But maybe what's more important is adults returning to the Hobby (or getting into something they wanted to have as children but didn't) and there the brand probably still is important.

 

- Which market segment is the Grand Suspension Bridge, ACME station canopy and fencing etc aimed at? Hornby have patently signaled their intent to abandon the kids market with the termination of the TTTE licence, and with no successor range yet mooted for that market. Furthermore, no 

 

It's a good question. A look at the forum on the Hornby web site (with a somewhat different demographic than here) might give some idea - there do seem to be people out there who would only consider (or, somehow, are only aware of) Hornby products, and might not be as discerning as many of us here.

 

Hornby must have some idea of what sells, you'd think.

 

As for abandoning the kids market, I'm not sure that abandoning Thomas means that and they still have the usual range of train sets with little 0-4-0s hauling an improbable collection of vehicles around an oval. I seem to recall that a few years ago they didn't seem to be producing Thomas items even if they still had the license.

 

The Bachmann 66 does have flaws in the underframe, and detail differences that occurred in the production fleet are not replicated in the Bachmann model. There have been a growing number of people asking for a revised 66, probably not around here as it doesn't boil water, but the Hattons model not only appears to be committing to model all the detail differences, but also improve the DCC and DCC sound offer, all at prices that are at what Bachmann charges for their one size fits all model.

 

Seriously, I can see this being a real challenge to the Bachmann model and a real banker for Hattons.

 

It's just occurred to me that Hattons probably have a view as to what Hornby products sell and how well second only to Hornby, and unlike Hornby they will have that information on other manufacturers too.

 

So if they think their 66 will sell well they are probably right.

[woodenhead]

I think the serious downturn in output from Bachmann and Hornby is what took Kernow and now Rails and Hattons into building their own models.

 

When your suppliers are not supplying, you find new ones, if there aren't any you do,it yourself, which is exactly what they have done. They have taken control of their own destiny.

 

It's the smaller shops who will suffer the lack of Hornby investment, the big three will look after themselves.