Panic buying

[boxbrownie]

1 hour ago, hayfield said:

 

 

The rise in gas prices is now being blamed on Russia as a stick to make Europe use its new pipeline, they are talking about another price hike in April, at a time when usually demand starts to fall and prices drop

 

The price rise in April is because the current price cap ends at that time, for now we are lucky it stays in place for so long (and the reason unfortunately that so many small providers are going bust).

 

Just the press only telling half a story, good headlines though.

[Jol Wilkinson]

2 hours ago, hayfield said:

 

Jol

 

Most of what is being reported is just rubbish, as far as retail is concerned Christmas non perishable supplies in big stores are in the warehouses, certainly things like decorations

 

Talk about pork prices rising, up until a month ago Pork was very cheap we were buying joints at under £5 a kilo, the price has to rise

 

The rise in gas prices is now being blamed on Russia as a stick to make Europe use its new pipeline, they are talking about another price hike in April, at a time when usually demand starts to fall and prices drop

 

The latest news about petrol crisis was that stocks were being run down on forecourts as E5 petrol was being phased out and E10 was being replacing it once the E5 had been used up. What a time to put maximum pressure on a government

 

As for Hatfield, it is due north of where I went in NW London, thankfully we moved out of SW Hertfordshire. I was finding the attitude of the people between Herts and NW London was getting worse. Mainly I guess due to the pressures of modern life and the living costs in these areas, sad to hear its spreading further north, Hatfield being both desirable and expensive

John,

 

Hatfield desirable? I suppose that depends on what you desire.

 

Is most of what is being reported rubbish? That depends on where you get your alternative information/facts from. In East Anglia the pig industry, and turkey farmers to lesser degree, definitely seems to have problems with processing. On the other hand a turkey producer in the Wirral was on tv stating they had no issues other than considerable increases in fuel and feed costs, largely because they were able to use local labour to process their relatively small output.

 

Jol

[rockershovel]

There was a story within the past couple of days in one of the broadsheets, to the effect that the fuel shortage had been triggered by garages running down stocks for the transition to E10 petrol. How this relates to a shortage of diesel, which seemed to be the original issue, I'm unclear. I don't know about whatever is presently reported being "rubbish" but the lack of proportion, clarity and context is obvious.

[black and decker boy]

For those that missed the programme tonight, Martin Lewis advice to all (well he said there may be a very very small number of exceptions), is DO NOTHING wrt Energy Prices.

Due to the energy price cap, anyone currently in a standard tariff, being switched due to collapse of their supplier OR whose Fixed deal is coming to an end should DO NOTHING and stay on the standard tariff. All other deals will be more expensive until 1st April 2022 when the energy price cap will change.

ML says to regard the price capped standard tariffs as in effect a 6month fixed deal. It’s currently the best rate on the market.

 

The energy Price Cap (in reality its a series of regional rate caps) are based on the average wholesale price of energy in the months prior to the 'fix' date. So the wholesale price over the next 3-4 months will drive the capped rate that comes into us on 1st April next year.

[Ron Ron Ron]

4 hours ago, hayfield said:

.....The rise in gas prices is now being blamed on Russia as a stick to make Europe use its new pipeline, .......

 

3 hours ago, boxbrownie said:

.......Just the press only telling half a story, good headlines though.

 

We are being fed a load of half-baked truths about the European and global gas supply and demand situation.

 

I happened to watch a more informative discussion about it on Liam Halligan's, "on the money" programme (GB News) a couple of days ago, 

He usually has knowledgeable people and experts in the field on his show, when discussing economic issues, rather than half clueless politicians (either not knowing the full details, or trying to makes excuses or score political points), nor journalists who've speed skimmed a bit of knowledge and aren't really qualified to talk about the issues (looking at you BBC).

 

One contributor on that programme is closely in touch with the global gas supply industry and particularly with Russia.

What he said closely aligns with what my nephew, who works as a "City" dealer in energy trading, told me last weekend.

 

Some points made.

 

Europe is currently desperately short of supply, particularly Germany.

The winter before last (2019/20) was relatively mild, followed by a hot summer.

This resulted in lower demand for gas, compounded by the reduction in the demand for energy, as European factories reduced output or closed down during the pandemic.

Therefore long term storage was not replenished to full capacity during 2020.

 

This was then followed by a particularly cold winter (last winter) where demand was higher than normal, just as industry was ramping back up.

Gas storage was rapidly depleted and the need for increased supplies pushed spot market prices up significantly (note, these wholesale price rises started in January and February).

 

As widely reported, to make matters worst, this has coincided with the huge rise in demand for LNG from the Far East, with the bulk of supplies, particularly from the ME being directed there.

 

Russia has not been restricting supply, in fact it's now supplying more gas than ever to Western Europe, but it hasn't increased supplies enough to meet the demand and has been using the situation to apply pressure in getting the Nordstream 2 pipeline certification and approval process completed.

That pipeline should have started delivering Russian gas late last year, but is being held up by regulatory issues and obstacles being put in the way. In other words the EU.

Russia is very keen to get the gas flowing, not only for the vast income potential, but because strategically, it's inviting Germany and therefore by default the EU, to put its head into a noose that Putin has control of.

 

A key part of all this, not really being talked about by the MSM, is that the gas market has in recent years, moved from fixed contract wholesale pricing, to an open traded spot market (what my nephew does for a living).

Hence the market volatility and rapid increase in the price of natural gas.

It's the markets, buying and selling gas and gas futures that has driven the prices so high.

 

You can conclude that there are many "actors" involved in all this, not only commercial, but geopolitical.

If the Nordsteam 2 pipeline was delivering gas today, there wouldn't have been the shortage and dramatic price rise.

Delaying the pipeline coming on stream by tying it up in regulatory knots has exacerbated the problem. 

 

You can speculate about who's making money out of this?

 

 

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[Nick C]

11 minutes ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

Russia has not been restricting supply, in fact it's now supplying more gas than ever to Western Europe, but it hasn't increased supplies enough to meet the demand and has been using the situation to apply pressure in getting the Nordstream 2 pipeline certification and approval process completed.

That pipeline should have started delivering Russian gas late last year, but is being held up by regulatory issues and obstacles being put in the way. In other words the EU.

Russia is very keen to get the gas flowing, not only for the vast income potential, but because strategically, it's inviting Germany and therefore by default the EU, to put its head into a noose that Putin has control of.

 

Which is exactly what Poland, Lithuania and others warned would happen before NordStream 2 was started...

[Ron Ron Ron]

21 minutes ago, Nick C said:

 

Which is exactly what Poland, Lithuania and others warned would happen before NordStream 2 was started...

 

......and the USA.

 

 

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[APOLLO]

We'd best get Fracking then = Pronto !!!!

 

Brit15

[Michael Hodgson]

2 hours ago, black and decker boy said:

ML says to regard the price capped standard tariffs as in effect a 6month fixed deal. It’s currently the best rate on the market.

 

 

A polite way of saying "Up yours" to all those price comparison sites and their annoying adverts .  

[Ron Ron Ron]

To add to my earlier post....

 

https://news.sky.com/story/gas-price-crisis-is-putin-using-energy-supply-as-a-weapon-and-what-is-its-new-nord-stream-2-pipeline-12428338

 

 

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[woodenhead]

It's all very good blaming Putin, it's like blaming China for holding us to ransom the price and volume of computer chips.

 

Governments were all too quick to buy gas from Russia knowing like with China that the governments there are autocratic and likely to use such a valuable commodity as a weapon.  In the meantime we've squandered our nuclear generation capabilities and need the French to help us build Hinkley C at an enormous cost.

 

I can understand running down the coal energy generating capability for the environment, but it came at cost of using gas to generate power and now look at the mess we are in.  It shouldn't be forgotten we also import electricity from abroad too.  Build back better, how about just build....

[30801]

2 hours ago, APOLLO said:

We'd best get Fracking then = Pronto !!!!

 

I prefer my tap water to not be on fire.

[woodenhead]

12 minutes ago, 30801 said:

 

I prefer my tap water to not be on fire.

Would make heating cheaper and guarantee 'hot' water 

[30801]

4 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

Would make heating cheaper and guarantee 'hot' water 

 

Fair point. I withdraw my earlier comment.

[boxbrownie]

2 hours ago, Michael Hodgson said:

 

A polite way of saying "Up yours" to all those price comparison sites and their annoying adverts .  

Er…Martin Lewis has probably the most followed price comparison website 

 

We got an email from him/it last week telling as mentioned above, don’t do anything just sit tight and whatever you do don’t try and get a better deal, there just aren’t any.

[Ron Ron Ron]

1 hour ago, woodenhead said:

It's all very good blaming Putin, it's like blaming China for holding us to ransom the price and volume of computer chips.

 

Governments were all too quick to buy gas from Russia knowing like with China that the governments there are autocratic and likely to use such a valuable commodity as a weapon.  In the meantime we've squandered our nuclear generation capabilities and need the French to help us build Hinkley C at an enormous cost.....

 

 

 

It's not us that's relying on Russia.

45 - 50% of the UK's gas supply comes from our own N. Sea gas fields.

Most of the rest comes from Norway, with the balance coming from Belgium, the Netherlands and from imported LNG.

A small amount is said to come from Russia, but I'm not sure if that's via the Belgian pipeline or from LNG?

 

Germany has played its part in the development of these problems.

Following Chernobyl, the anti-nuclear and green lobby campaigned to stop further nuclear power stations being built and to stop a replacement programme for the existing ones, when they were due to be decommissioned..

Fukushima, 10 years ago, was the icing on the cake. The German government adopted a non-nuclear policy and began a programme to close down their nuclear stations and invest in renewables.

The last few nuclear power stations will be closed by 2022/23.

Although they've poured money into renewables, Germany is now committed to Coal burning until 2038 and has become heavily dependent on imported gas to supplement the coal.

With no domestic resources, they've turned to Russia, who already supply most of their gas, to make up the shortfall.

 

As for the UK, we've had 30 years of successive governments dithering and avoiding having to confront our future energy needs.

We should have embarked on a replacement programme for our earlier Magnox and AGR reactors, back in the 1990's.

Only now is there an attempt to replace some of that capacity, when it's too late, having lost our nuclear expertise in the meantime.

 

In more recent times, there's been a failure to seriously look at other renewable options, often baulking at the massive costs of grandiose proposals and ignoring more cost effective, multiple small scale schemes.

There's masses of potential renewable energy to be harvested in the UK. It's right under our noses.

 

 

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Edited October 8, 2021 by Ron Ron Ron

[boxbrownie]

5 hours ago, rockershovel said:

There was a story within the past couple of days in one of the broadsheets, to the effect that the fuel shortage had been triggered by garages running down stocks for the transition to E10 petrol. How this relates to a shortage of diesel, which seemed to be the original issue, I'm unclear. I don't know about whatever is presently reported being "rubbish" but the lack of proportion, clarity and context is obvious.

It is rubbish as virtually every busy petrol station will have several tanker fills a week, they have no need to “run down stocks” as witnessed by the speed (sometimes under a day) with which many had to close during the panic as they ran the tanks dry/low.

[rockershovel]

2 hours ago, APOLLO said:

We'd best get Fracking then = Pronto !!!!

 

Brit15

Actually, no we don't. The technology is in the wrong place. Petrochemicals technology tends to develop in steps, and we need the next "step change" - or the one after that - before we begin. Our reserves really aren't that large, in the wider scheme of things. Right now, gas can be extracted from these "tight formations" by a process which gives about 15% recovery and sterilises the rest, at least by currently known techniques. This is a great bargain for Cuadrilla but a very poor use of irreplaceable reserves for the nation. 

[rockershovel]

2 minutes ago, boxbrownie said:

It is rubbish as virtually every busy petrol station will have several tanker fills a week, they have no need to “run down stocks” as witnessed by the speed (sometimes under a day) with which many had to close during the panic as they ran the tanks dry/low.

That apart, and I don't doubt it, it seemed a non sequitur at best? 

[Andy Hayter]

@Ron Ron Ron

 

Sorry but again you have half a story.  Schroder announced in 2004 (well before Fukushima) that all nuclear stations would be closed by 2022.   There was however no published plan for how this would take place - which does not mean that a plan was not being formulated.

Angela took over as Chancellor and it is suggested was somewhat reticent (but not openly anti) until Fukushima, whereupon a test of all German stations was made to test (on paper) their ability to withstand double* rather than single failure modes.  Every single one failed and one was shown to have single mode failure flaws that were not spotted in the design phase (Bibilis).  

 

* The Fukushima failure was as a result of a double system failure.  The earthquake knocked out the internal power supply used to control the reactors.  The designed fall-back diesel generators kicked in as planned but were themselves knocked out by the consequent Tsunami leaving the station with no control power.

[boxbrownie]

1 hour ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

 

 

As for the UK, we've had 30 years of successive governments dithering and avoiding having to confront our future energy needs.

We should have embarked on a replacement programme for our earlier Magnox and AGR reactors, back in the 1990's.

Only now is there an attempt to replace some of that capacity, when it's too late, having lost our nuclear expertise in the meantime.

 

 

.

 

 

Mrs BB was involved in several studies (for local government) to replace Bradwell PS and Sizewells reactors back in the 90’s….the studies ran over into the 2000’s……and then everyone chickened out and baulked at the costings, even the cheap Chinese built type (which were bottom of the recommended list with the Finnish top and French second), she left the department years ago and it always pi55e5 her off every time she sees something on TV about our Nuclear PS building plans, we should have had three new up and running 10 years ago.

[petethemole]

1 hour ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

It's not us that's relying on Russia.

45 - 50% of the UK's gas supply comes from our own N. Sea gas fields.

Most of the rest comes from Norway, with the balance coming from Belgium, the Netherlands and from imported LNG.

A small amount is said to come from Russia, but I'm not sure if that's via the Belgian pipeline or from LNG?

 

Back in the '80s the president of our military modelling club was a retired army major who was head of security for British Gas Southern.  He was also a security advisor on behalf of BG on the first (I think) Russia-Western Europe gas pipeline project.  He made regular liaison visits to the then Soviet Union.  The intent then was certainly to augment the UK's supply of North Sea gas.   He was still a reserve officer and at the club we used to speculate/joke that his trips also involved spying.

[APOLLO]

18 minutes ago, petethemole said:

Back in the '80s the president of our military modelling club was a retired army major who was head of security for British Gas Southern.  He was also a security advisor on behalf of BG on the first (I think) Russia-Western Europe gas pipeline project.  He made regular liaison visits to the then Soviet Union.  The intent then was certainly to augment the UK's supply of North Sea gas.   He was still a reserve officer and at the club we used to speculate/joke that his trips also involved spying.

 

Maggie Thatcher I have read stopped that. She said we should never be dependant on Russia for primary energy. She also fell out with the miners and instigated the "Dash for gas" - gas burning power generation. A long time ago, we have wasted a valuable asset that could have lasted far longer if coal had continued. The (fairly) recent green agenda has changed everything again.

 

One day (50 years or so) Russias (etc) gas will run out / low. We keep kicking the can down the road.

 

Also "green" Germany burns Lignite - a very messy obnoxious fuel, half way between peat and coal.

 

I doubt that we will now see a hydrogen economy where the hydrogen is sourced via cracking Methane (Natural gas). 

 

Only a small % of Russian gas is imported via the interconector pipelines. LNG is imported by ship to Milford Haven and Isle of Grain terminals. This comes mainly from Qatar, and other nice places.

 

This is our real time gas supply real time flow data for system entry points. This information is updated every two minutes and published at twelve-minute intervals.

 

https://mip-prd-web.azurewebsites.net/InstantaneousView/Index

 

https://mip-prd-web.azurewebsites.net/

 

Interesting times ahead.

 

Brit15

[PhilJ W]

7 hours ago, rockershovel said:

There was a story within the past couple of days in one of the broadsheets, to the effect that the fuel shortage had been triggered by garages running down stocks for the transition to E10 petrol. How this relates to a shortage of diesel, which seemed to be the original issue, I'm unclear. I don't know about whatever is presently reported being "rubbish" but the lack of proportion, clarity and context is obvious.

It was the press that caused or at least contributed with the panic by their headlines which I posted here a few days ago.

[woodenhead]

6 hours ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

 

It's not us that's relying on Russia.

45 - 50% of the UK's gas supply comes from our own N. Sea gas fields.

Most of the rest comes from Norway, with the balance coming from Belgium, the Netherlands and from imported LNG.

A small amount is said to come from Russia, but I'm not sure if that's via the Belgian pipeline or from LNG?

 

 

I was reading some more about this earlier - in 2004 100% of our gas came from the North Sea and since then we've seen that drop to 48%.

 

Admittedly in 2004 there were a lot less power stations using gas, it was only 30% of the generated power.  But, I've found this though that shows the decline in indigenous gas production.  So it's not just that demand from the UK has gone up, but supply was also declining.  The challenge is for the government to find a way to glean us off gas quickly.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/296183/pn_march_14.pdf