Panic buying

[Andy Hayter]

@Ron Ron Ron

 

It is not that Germany's economy is currently in need of a large number of immigrant workers.  It has been like that since Post War recovery.  Gastarbeiter as they were then called came from Yugoslavia, Greece and Turkey.  Later the base widened and even a few Brits ended up being imported (me for example) - remember Aufwiedersehen Pet?

 

What I think is significant is that the skills shortages are seemingly moving to more and more specific and technical areas.   The UK will then be in direct competition with Germany for these valued resources.

[Ruffnut Thorston]

News is coming in that Nestle has announced that they are experiencing supply chain problems.

 

There should be no shortage of chocolate products, as long as everyone shops normally, and does not panic buy.

 

 

 

[Ron Ron Ron]

9 hours ago, Andy Hayter said:

@Ron Ron Ron

 

It is not that Germany's economy is currently in need of a large number of immigrant workers.  It has been like that since Post War recovery.  Gastarbeiter as they were then called came from Yugoslavia, Greece and Turkey.  Later the base widened and even a few Brits ended up being imported (me for example) - remember Aufwiedersehen Pet?

 

What I think is significant is that the skills shortages are seemingly moving to more and more specific and technical areas.   The UK will then be in direct competition with Germany for these valued resources.

Unlike the 1960’s and 70’s, or the labour shortages in the 80’s, where the economy was expanding and more workers were required to be brought in to facilitate that growth, Germany if facing a different situation, where their large economy is in serious danger of having the rug being pulled from under their feet.

Very large numbers of people are going to be retiring in a relatively short time frame and like the UK and elsewhere, there is a growing retired population to support.

They simply cannot just absorb millions of extra people without creating serious problems, both short term and long term.

In any case, the skill sets required are in short supply and as you point out, there’s going to be stiff competition to attract the right people from elsewhere.

[30801]

Something on the radio this morning about a toilet roll manufacturer having problems with the cost of gas.

I'm off out to collect some leaves then...

[hayfield]

13 hours ago, PhilJ W said:

 

When it comes to VAT almost everything includes VAT including food as the transport of foodstuffs to retail outlets which is still liable for the full VAT of 20%. Whether you own or rent your home repairs and maintenance are also subject to VAT.

 

 

 

From my limited understanding of accounting VAT is charged to the supermarket on all kinds of items, the company being VAT registered claims this back, them charges VAT on VATable items to the revenue

 

My uncle ran a fruit and veg shop and a market stall, he claimed all his VAT back as per the rules as he sold no VATable goods, but he fell foul of the rules over the paper bags he did not charge for but put produce in. The revenue deemed that they were in the price of the goods he sold thereby VATable

 

Secondly many supermarkets use their own lorries to collect goods from manufactures for their return journeys back to the warehouses. They buy the goods for less and have fewer empty lorries travelling on the roads. Modern supply chains are quite complicated, even some of the warehouses and transport are run by contractors

 

Another company after dropping off goods collects waste plastics and cardboard, these are sorted then sold on and the profits shared by the transport company and supermarket. Plastics and cardboard are a very valuable source of income !!!

[hayfield]

1 hour ago, Ruffnut Thorston said:

News is coming in that Nestle has announced that they are experiencing supply chain problems.

 

There should be no shortage of chocolate products, as long as everyone shops normally, and does not panic buy.

 

 

 

 

All Christmas stock will be on the warehouse shelves in store by now, in 2 months time this will be replaced with stock for Easter

 

However normal stock will still be on the just in time principals, though several days stock is always held on the shelves

[alastairq]

The issue of disappearing skills though retirement [or simply getting pee'd off with the situation], has been recognised by the UK Civil service for more than a decade, to my knowledge.

For at least a decade and a half, the Civil service as a whole has[via Management Practice documents, official policies] attempted to address the growing problem of skills vanishing, by offering employees various means of continuing their work [IE, keeping their skills  in place] under more amenable working conditions...such as part-time, semi-retirement, or even, returning to the workplace after a period of retirement.

I'm not referring to the higher end grades/jobs, such  as found in the plush office suites of Whitehall, but the lesser grades of posts, found up & down the country, with an awful lot of posts not actually involving desk-driving.

The factors which Civil Service departments had no control over were the appallingly low wage levels [certainly when compared to the private sector equivalents], offset by whatever 'benefits' could be hacked out via the CS as a whole. 

[Nope, the pensions were,and are not, ''non-contributory' as is often thought. The contributions comes via other sources, much like indirect taxation does.]

 

I personally became involved in the process well over 10 years ago now.

 

But failed to get my local management to either [a] acknowledge the burgeoning issue] or be bothered to actually work out a practical solution.

 

My department was indeed facing the issue of the aging, skilled, workforce.  All knew it was occuring. But partly because we had an overarching military management [who thought the problem wouldn't exist , possibly because they 'said so?'] who tended to have a limited [2 year or so, ] view of the future.....

 

I banged on for  6 years or more, application after application [to set a policy precedent, really], even getting support from the very top [Whitehall]....

I presented argument, facts, projections, you name it. I had full Union support too.....but they saw me as the knowledgeable one, simply because I had trawled the MPDs..or, was bothered enough to do so. I presented to full Colonels, Brigadiers, B2 and B1 Civil service management, etc etc. but no joy, at my Establishment.  Even when [in simple terms] told to 'sort it out' by Whitehall, they squirmingly refused..

 

From a personal viewpoint, having undergone a divorce back then, I could foresee a time when I would struggle, age-wise, to continue to work full time. Yet I also knew whatever pensions I had were minimalist to say the least.....[as was my lifestyle anyway].

 

So anything I could achieve in terms of getting my Establishment to sort out some sort of reduced time working , within the Civil Service Rules, must be a 'good thing' for an aging  worker.  

 

In the end, having endured endless persuasion by friends, I simply bit the bullet, and 'up-sticks' and left, taking my pensions as I did.

 

The announcement that I was going [being viewed I suspect as one of the Establishment's 'permanent fixtures'...?]  brought, I was told, a bit of a shock wave further up the food chain.  For, within the following 12 months something like 25% of the existing work force decided to do likewise.

 

The result ?

 Instant change of tack... instituting several part-time working schemes, open to all instructors....none of which really resulted in a loss of earnings .

The CS semi-retirement scheme does likewise, no actual loss of earnings from when working full time, but a good deal less actual attendance.

 

A lot of my peers took advantage of the schemes available...they wanted to work into their older age [most of my peers were aged well in excess of the 50 mark, a few were actually over 70!]...but didn;t want the hassle of full time  attendance.

The part-time schemes worked very much in the employers favour as well.  A massive reduction in self-certified sickness, or appointments for medical reasons [we were paid regardless....a trip to one's GP cost nothing but a half day away from work, if the appointment was timed well....]

Now that sort of thing has almost disappeared, as the aging staff can do all this, effectively, in their own time, of which they have a lot more of.

 

Staff leave also has become more manageable [we were allowed no more than around 22% absences at any one time...so if one wanted a day off, one had to look at the numbers already booked off?]    

 

Part-time staff actually finncially beenfitited as well, due to the Civil Service rules concerning when overtime was paid/triggered.

 

The military have specific rules about under what conditions all the training add to be conducted.

One of which was, much of had to be done by both day, and night!  Driving, obvioulsy, but also vehicle operation, etc.

 

Our Establishment at one point [before I left] had  a higher overtime [and ll that went with it] bill than the rest of the Civil Service put together.  Just in one Establishment!

All 'paid for' by the various militaries...[all our work was in fact, paid for by the various cap badges/hats....RAF, NAvy, RM and Army, even FO and HO...they were our clients, our products being, appropriately & correctly trained personnel]....

Indeed, some managers [who had to be present..rules, you know] made enough out of overtime alone to pay off mortgages, etc...Simply because, a lot of what we did during daylight hours, had to be repeated during the night.  Problems of working Time directives, military working & driving hours, and so on, complicated matters as well.  I should add, much of our work was actually combined with all arms basic training.....so all personnel, having undergone their basic [phase 1] training, then came to us for licences and other skills.....[phase 2]....unlike when I started, when it was a 'select few' who came through our tender hands.

 

Anyhow, I digress...

The point being, the skills shortages are not in any way a new thing.

The CS saw the reduction in working hours, but retention of skills, as most important....if only to help pass on those skills to the 'up & coming' youngsters?

 

Because of aging populations [workforces?], and difficulties with things like children, care requirements, etc.....part time working has to be the way forwards for a lot of the skills shortage issues.

 

Because of an aging population part time working has to be the way to retain skills, in order to pass them on.

But part-time working is seen as the province of the low -paid, far too much.

When we read about 'part-time' work numbers, the impression we are given is the harassed single parent juggling with two or three part time jobs, on minimum wage or less, because an employer finds that a cheaper route.

When in reality it ought to be an acknowledgement that older folk need to actually be working 'less',due to their physical  [& mental] state...but still encouraged to remain within the workplace so that the skills are not lost forever.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 7, 2021 by alastairq

[TheQ]

 

Sounds extremely familiar , well  I am ex military..

 But in this Current Employment, an all civilian company though the military buys our products as do civilians..

 

We have 5 in the department,

Head of lab, retires in 9 months, might get permission to work less days a week , but they haven't started looking for a replacement for him..

Deputy head of Lab, Brand New just out of university, they couldn't recruit anyone quailfied (5 years of trying)

Software Engineer, new to the company this month, but is actually older than the one that retired

Hardware engineer, Good guy, many years left but the wrong specialisation to be head of lab

Me, technician (need degree for post).. retire in 14 months, being junior they won't start looking for my replacement till I've left.. It took me about 5 years to learn all aspect of the job and that was with two qualified people to advise me..

This department is already struggling with the work... in 14 months time... it's be a disaster, But I won't be part timing nor coming back..

 

oh Shortages, all the PFS between home and here now have fuel, though the independants have £30 limits and Tesco appear to have turned the fuel pressure down... it took ages to fill the tank, same on the other pumps...

 

Edited October 7, 2021 by TheQ

[hayfield]

9 minutes ago, TheQ said:

 

Sounds extremely familiar , well  I am ex military..

 But in this Current Employment, an all civilian company though the military buys our products as do civilians..

 

We have 5 in the department,

Head of lab, retires in 9 months, might get permission to work less days a week , but they haven't started looking for a replacement for him..

Deputy head of Lab, Brand New just out of university, they couldn't recruit anyone quailfied (5 years of trying)

Software Engineer, new to the company this month, but is actually older than the one that retired

Hardware engineer, Good guy, many years left but the wrong specialisation to be head of lab

Me, technician (need degree for post).. retire in 14 months, being junior they won't start looking for my replacement till I've left.. It took me about 5 years to learn all aspect of the job and that was with two qualified people to advise me..

This department is already struggling with the work... in 14 months time... it's be a disaster, But I won't be part timing nor coming back..

 

oh Shortages, all the PFS between home and here now have fuel, though the independants have £30 limits and Tesco appear to have turned the fuel pressure down... it took ages to fill the tank, same on the other pumps...

 

 

Not replacing people before or when they retire is normal. In my previous employment exactly the same, its a way of controlling the pay roll

 

As for needing a degree for a position, OK if its for a job like a doctor where you need a specific qualification. But when someone has been doing the job and has proved an ability to excel its the world gone mad

 

In my previous job the junior management had an increasing number of those with a degree, in most cases these managers were worse than those who were promoted through the ranks, many were not very good at doing their jobs, but for anyone to be demoted was unheard of. They were put into rolls where they caused the least damage and had a capable supervisor to fix their inadequacies

 

I don't have a downed on people with degrees, there are many who excel and I guess would anyway even if they did not have one. They are naturally bright and learn quickly. But far too many youngsters are not getting the further education they deserve simply by taking a degree in something obscure. Example the number of those with a sports science degree and work in a job that has no relationship to it must be massive. I have a friend who has one and told me it was a waste of time in his case, I also have another relation who also had one and ended up part time in a retail clothes shop, thankfully now has a job/career in HR.  I don't believe a degree proves you can learn theory, I have seen too many graduates out of their depth/under performing.

[TheQ]

The problem in this case is who is going to train them to do the job? it's not something you can pick up instantly and other than me and the boss no one else knows how to do large sections of the work..

[alastairq]

In the public sector, actually 'retiring' isn't something one does these days.

One cannot be 'forced' to retire [by dint of age] in the older accepted sense .  [Although, in the past. ''retirement'' is disguised by a failure to meet physical standards, for example?]

 

So until and unless a person submits an official resignation, nothing can be  done regarding recruitment or replacement until that day arrives. Which it isn't actually 'forced' to do, in the case of the Civil Service.

IE one can submit a resignation, but one can withdraw it at any time...

 

Thus line management is rather hamstrung in respect of recruitment.

 

As TheQ might attest, there are rules within the military & Civil Service [counterparts, we were cheaper than military personnel doing a similar job]....regarding job qualifications.

Whether its about degrees, or licence categories or, in my case, the number of years the licence has been held & used, which is partly dictated by law, partly by Military Rules.

 

Currently at my last place of work [5 years gone hence]...the civilian staff shortages [lack of recruitment instigated by both LAbour & Conservative Govts....recruitment freezes, etc, has meant that military personnel have had to be draughted in  as support.  

[That may save on overtime payments, but not on overall staff costs..they get paid more, and need looking after more, which costs. Plus, they 'unfortunately' learn to be civvies, it rubs off, you know!]

The legacy of successive Chancellors tying to cut 'public' expenditure....Pay freezes, pay rise limits, recruitment freezes...all is well as long as it works.

when it doesn't, Government of the day actually doesn't get to find out, or care, really......as long as it does not directly impinge on them or their sponsors. [A failure to work  is seen as someone else's responsibility, not that of the policy makers.]

 

[hayfield]

Just now, TheQ said:

The problem in this case is who is going to train them to do the job? it's not something you can pick up instantly and other than me and the boss no one else knows how to do large sections of the work..

 

My son in law had quite a unique and specialist job in the public sector, he proposed and was asked to set out a new department within the sector combining 3 differing but complementary departments. The requirements for the department lead needed skills/abilities few had. To cut a long story short after several years of kicking the ball around by his superiors they decided to take up his suggestions and wanted him to lead the project. However over the past 3 years he got both disillusioned with the job and decided rather than all the new stress this would involve, he could get the same job satisfaction becoming a consultant working when he wanted for private industry

 

He is now a different person, doing the job he loves under his own terms, currently still on several advisory bodies within the industry which he feared loosing. His ex-employers now see the expertise they have lost

[rocor]

There has been much speculation that a ready supply of migrant workers was a cause of suppressed wages for British "unskilled" workers. I am not aware of a similar theory being widely proposed for an unrestricted supply of migrant skilled workers being responsible for British industry neglecting the training of new staff. 

 

The skill shortages that has been recently been widely reported may show that there is a case for this.

 

Not that skill shortages, and UK's industries reluctance to step forward to solve the problem is anything new.

 

Sometimes British governments step in to try and help solve the problem. Back in the 1970s there were skill centres providing the TOPS (Training Opportunities Scheme), giving training for the unemployed and those that wished to uprate their skills. I benefitted from this scheme, having undertaken a course in draughtsmanship. The training provided by this, allowed me continuous employment to my retirement.

 

The TOPS scheme was ended, and the skill centres sold off (by the usual suspects).

 

Reference:

 

  https://api.parliament.uk/historic-hansard/commons/1990/may/15/skill-centres-sale

  

[hayfield]

Following my report on petrol shortages still affecting parts of NW London on Tuesday, my wife reminded me that we are going to a funeral in Battle tomorrow. On my way back from the bathroom showroom I called into Sainsburys for petrol, no queues and plenty of unoccupied petrol pumps, plus the cheapest prices I have paid for over a month.

 

I guess everyone in the area has full tanks

[30801]

17 minutes ago, hayfield said:

 Sainsburys for petrol, no queues and plenty of unoccupied petrol pumps, plus the cheapest prices I have paid for over a month.

 

Fuel and no queues here but diesel at 147.9 which is a bit steep...

[PhilJ W]

2 hours ago, rocor said:

There has been much speculation that a ready supply of migrant workers was a cause of suppressed wages for British "unskilled" workers. I am not aware of a similar theory being widely proposed for an unrestricted supply of migrant skilled workers being responsible for British industry neglecting the training of new staff. 

 

The skill shortages that has been recently been widely reported may show that there is a case for this.

 

Not that skill shortages, and UK's industries reluctance to step forward to solve the problem is anything new.

 

Sometimes British governments step in to try and help solve the problem. Back in the 1970s there were skill centres providing the TOPS (Training Opportunities Scheme), giving training for the unemployed and those that wished to uprate their skills. I benefitted from this scheme, having undertaken a course in draughtsmanship. The training provided by this, allowed me continuous employment to my retirement.

 

The TOPS scheme was ended, and the skill centres sold off (by the usual suspects).

 

Reference:

 

  https://api.parliament.uk/historic-hansard/commons/1990/may/15/skill-centres-sale

  

At one time the government to all intents and purposes paid for apprentices through various schemes TOPS included but in the 80's this was slowly done away with in the interest of tax cuts. The effect of this was masked when many former Iron Curtain states joined the EU and many tradesmen from those countries came west for the higher wages. Now many of them have returned home as wages in those countries have risen to match the rates in the UK, Germany and other countries.

[Ron Ron Ron]

Interesting that the official ONS figures show that there was almost exactly the same percentage of EU citizen HGV drivers working in the UK in July, than at the same time 3 years ago.

11% as opposed to 12%.

The fall in numbers has been even across the board, EU and domestic drivers included

As a proportion, many more "domestic" drivers have left the job, than their EU counterparts.

To watch, listen and read the news, you would believe it was only the fall in the number of EU drivers that was causing the problem.

 

On the TV today, a politician was saying that the industry was warning the government about the situation in June. Really?

As I posted a few pages back, with links to newspaper articles published at the time, the industry was warning the government back in 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2019, yet the industry have done little or nothing about it themselves, either.

 

 

.

[monkeysarefun]

From my time working in the resource sector and now defence, which involve outback travel,  Ive come across many expat UK truckies working the mines here.

 

If you can stand the heat and flies its a pretty sweet job -  you can speak the language after a bit of tweaking,  accommodation and meals are paid for and pay is around 65K GBP.

Just need to learn to drink unwarm beer.

Edited October 7, 2021 by monkeysarefun

[Jol Wilkinson]

2 hours ago, hayfield said:

Following my report on petrol shortages still affecting parts of NW London on Tuesday, my wife reminded me that we are going to a funeral in Battle tomorrow. On my way back from the bathroom showroom I called into Sainsburys for petrol, no queues and plenty of unoccupied petrol pumps, plus the cheapest prices I have paid for over a month.

 

I guess everyone in the area has full tanks

On the other hand, my sister in law who lives near Hatfield said tonight that the fuel situation near her is still quite a problem.

While it has eased here in East Suffolk, it doesn't seem to be back to normal yet.

 

Prediction. Based on the tv news over the last couple of days, the next panic buying will be for Christmas decorations, turkeys and, following news of pigs having to be culled as they aren't sufficient butchers to process them, pork products. We could cope without turkey at Christmas, but no bacon or sausages would be a disaster.

 

 

[Steamport Southport]

2 minutes ago, Jol Wilkinson said:

Prediction. Based on the tv news over the last couple of days, the next panic buying will be for Christmas decorations, turkeys and, following news of pigs having to be culled as they aren't sufficient butchers to process them, pork products. We could cope without turkey at Christmas, but no bacon or sausages would be a disaster.

 

 

 

Don't people have loads of the things slung in the loft?  

 

 

If people are looking for them try your local charity shops. We normally keep the quality ones that get donated after Christmas to sell next year. Obviously the tatty ones get slung into the recycling, but we have a corner full of what we describe as "Christmas stuff". Must be about a dozen artificial trees in it!

 

 

[spikey]

13 hours ago, rocor said:

.... Back in the 1970s there were skill centres providing the TOPS (Training Opportunities Scheme), giving training for the unemployed and those that wished to uprate their skills.

 

There was also the "Key Worker Scheme", which paid in full for Pickfords to move us from Penzance to a very nice brand new 3-bed council house in St Helens so I could take up the offer of a position which couldn't be filled locally. 

[Neil]

No Christmas decorations? ..... Excellent.

[Bernard Lamb]

10 hours ago, Jol Wilkinson said:

On the other hand, my sister in law who lives near Hatfield said tonight that the fuel situation near her is still quite a problem.

While it has eased here in East Suffolk, it doesn't seem to be back to normal yet.

 

Prediction. Based on the tv news over the last couple of days, the next panic buying will be for Christmas decorations, turkeys and, following news of pigs having to be culled as they aren't sufficient butchers to process them, pork products. We could cope without turkey at Christmas, but no bacon or sausages would be a disaster.

 

 

It seems to be rather hit and miss. Going north on the A1 out of London and turning off near Hatfield petrol stations were in the main closed but one that was open had no queue.

Bernard

[hayfield]

10 hours ago, Jol Wilkinson said:

On the other hand, my sister in law who lives near Hatfield said tonight that the fuel situation near her is still quite a problem.

While it has eased here in East Suffolk, it doesn't seem to be back to normal yet.

 

Prediction. Based on the tv news over the last couple of days, the next panic buying will be for Christmas decorations, turkeys and, following news of pigs having to be culled as they aren't sufficient butchers to process them, pork products. We could cope without turkey at Christmas, but no bacon or sausages would be a disaster.

 

 

 

Jol

 

Most of what is being reported is just rubbish, as far as retail is concerned Christmas non perishable supplies in big stores are in the warehouses, certainly things like decorations

 

Talk about pork prices rising, up until a month ago Pork was very cheap we were buying joints at under £5 a kilo, the price has to rise

 

The rise in gas prices is now being blamed on Russia as a stick to make Europe use its new pipeline, they are talking about another price hike in April, at a time when usually demand starts to fall and prices drop

 

The latest news about petrol crisis was that stocks were being run down on forecourts as E5 petrol was being phased out and E10 was being replacing it once the E5 had been used up. What a time to put maximum pressure on a government

 

As for Hatfield, it is due north of where I went in NW London, thankfully we moved out of SW Hertfordshire. I was finding the attitude of the people between Herts and NW London was getting worse. Mainly I guess due to the pressures of modern life and the living costs in these areas, sad to hear its spreading further north, Hatfield being both desirable and expensive

[alastairq]

1 hour ago, hayfield said:

The latest news about petrol crisis was that stocks were being run down on forecourts as E5 petrol was being phased out and E10 was being replacing it once the E5 had been used up. What a time to put maximum pressure on a government

 

That sounds about right.

Mind, whilst the ethanol content of fuel is ''up to'' the percentage posted, there's no guarantee one is actually filling up with 10 % ethanol......it could be far less indeed.

My local [Esssso] rural large fuel point told me they had instructions to simply 'mix' the E5 that was still in the tanks, and new fills of 95 octane  E10.

 

They also didn't change the labels to E10 until sometime after the changeover date....simply because Esso were still supplying [max-E5] 95 octane fuel up here, after that date.

 

I also suspect much of the supply issue [keeping low stocks of fuel has been mentioned by others further up the thread]....stemmed from the observations that, last year especially, during the pandemic, there was a huge reduction in fuel usage [vehicle usage]....Since petrol has a short shelf life, and the constituent mixes of petrol change from season to season [modern-day cars being rather picky prima donnas regarding fuel], petrol retailers may have been reluctant to hold large stocks of a particular season's fuel if sales were depressed, perhaps?

 

The excuse of 'tanker driver shortage', whilst being a fact [and has been for years]....meant that the fuel suppliers couldn't keep up with the vast increase in fuel demand, once we came out of lockdown...No boxes of instantly inflatable  tanker drivers being stocked either.

 

I also think we should give turkeys a nice Christmas for once....There's plenty of roadkill out there [Tesco's meat department, for example?] Mind, soon we will have to ration the opening of our freezers, as power demands exceed supply...until, at least, the poorer half of the country cannot afford to buy electricity any more?  Then the better off [to quote Guardian, the 'white home owners?']  will have their power supplies restored....

 

Me?

 

I'd be stuffed, as in my village we have no street lamps.

Edited October 8, 2021 by alastairq