Hornby 2022 - Diesel/Electric Range

[ruggedpeak]

4 minutes ago, TomScrut said:

 

I think the issue for me (as I said in the post a few before yours) is that the size of some of the trains, and then for them to not support it with additional coaches, will probably put people off.

 

I do think there is probably some merit in what you say about the coaches as a pack with the appropriate loco available separately. As I said in my post about the TFW trains, the coaches and locos have not been attached at the hip from day one so they may have more appeal separately.

 

Possibly the best thing to do (and would probably work with HSTs as well) would be to have DVT/power cars if applicable, unique coaches such as the buffet car/brake etc., fill the rest of the set with standards or whatever and then have a load more standard coaches available for those wanting a longer train. Everyone gets the special/unique coaches and then the standards are pretty much buy whichever you want to make a train up. Loco separate if they do other stuff, loco in if they spend all their lives on one job such as 91s.

Don't disagree in principle but the omnishambles that is the Hornby pre-order processand time having to be spent trying to track things down undermines the concept of separate items in my view. But need some data to see if missing a key coach for example undermines related sales.

[newbryford]

2 minutes ago, TomScrut said:

 

I think the issue for me (as I said in the post a few before yours) is that the size of some of the trains, and then for them to not support it with additional coaches, will probably put people off.

 

I do think there is probably some merit in what you say about the coaches as a pack with the appropriate loco available separately. As I said in my post about the TFW trains, the coaches and locos have not been attached at the hip from day one so they may have more appeal separately.

 

Possibly the best thing to do (and would probably work with HSTs as well) would be to have DVT/power cars if applicable, unique coaches such as the buffet car/brake etc., fill the rest of the set with standards or whatever and then have a load more standard coaches available for those wanting a longer train. Everyone gets the special/unique coaches and then the standards are pretty much buy whichever you want to make a train up. Loco separate if they do other stuff, loco in if they spend all their lives on one job such as 91s.

 

Problem with train packs and add-ons (of two or more coaches) is deciding the production quantities.

 

Working out production numbers for those that want short or longer trains must be a "wet finger in the air" exercise.

How would you quantify how many add-ons are needed?

How many of the first add-on pack, how many of the second?

And in the case of multiple add-on packs, there would likely be less of pack 2 required to extend the train as the number of folk that can accommodate larger trains will be less than those than can fit shorter formations.

 

Get it wrong - not enough - and everyone chases the elusive coaches - often at the mercy of ebay.

Get it wrong - too many -  and they sit there on the manufacturer warehouse shelves.

 

And just doing extra "standard" coaches (for fixed formation sets) isn't the done/acceptable/thing now, as some of the market now wants individual numbers for their buck. In the past, it would be out with the decals.

 

I'm with the coach pack without loco - TFW/ATW are good examples

Even the A/S TPE Mk5s don't necessarily need a TPE 68................. (Yes - I know they are from different manufacturers)

I might just run my set with a FL 70 to upset people. (pic from flickr)

 

An aside:

The likes of those packs that need a single add-on doesn't make sense to me to miss them off - the EWS Manager's Train for example.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[InterCity80s]

36 minutes ago, wombatofludham said:

 I suspect the fact that Rails and Hatton's haven't raised their issues with the Competition authorities is more to do with the fact they are making enough money in other aspects than any belief that their grievance is too small to bother the competition authorities.

I suspect it's more that the regulations you have quoted are designed to prevent competitors (e.g. Hornby and Bachmann in the case of UK model railways) from colluding to fix prices, limit supply, carving up markets etc in order to reduce competition. I don't think anyone is suggesting that any such collusion is occurring?

[eagle50043]

Are Hornby adverse to doing a Trainload Metals class 60 ? ive only been waiting 10 years...

[TomScrut]

6 minutes ago, newbryford said:

Problem with train packs and add-ons (of two or more coaches) is deciding the production quantities.

 

I agree, but the same seems to apply with coaches in general.

 

6 minutes ago, newbryford said:

And just doing extra "standard" coaches (for fixed formation sets) isn't the done/acceptable/thing now, as some of the market now wants individual numbers for their buck.

 

I meant to do enough numbers to make up a legitimate train, those not needing to make a whole train can buy whichever is available meaning they'd not sit around unless there was no demand at all. Say on a HST release from Hornby I believe it is often the specific coaches that go first rather than TSs, I presume people will normally want a buffet, TF, TSB and then as many TS and TFs to make the length of train they want. If a hypothetical HST train pack had power cars, a TF, TSB, buffet if whatever type relevant, and maybe a TS, then the other TS/TF releases are effectively interchangeable on a train and so unless making a full rake you can buy however many releases you want. You'd not be scratting about for the special coaches, worst you'd have to do is renumber a TF or TS if some releases were sold out.

 

The issue with the HST is I think people have more power cars than coach rakes (for special liveries etc).

 

8 minutes ago, newbryford said:

Even the A/S TPE Mk5s don't necessarily need a TPE 68

 

Exactly, and nowadays they are often pulled by EP 37s on ECS moves. My AS 37608 will get a go with one of my rakes, as might my 70015.

 

9 minutes ago, newbryford said:

An aside:

The likes of those packs that need a single add-on doesn't make sense to me to miss them off - the EWS Manager's Train for example.

 

I agree there, it's more where you have 3 coaches in a pack and the prototype is 9 coaches for example and nothing else is offered. Unless you only have space for 3 coaches you'll be disappointed.

[scouse889]

50 minutes ago, eagle50043 said:

Are Hornby adverse to doing a Trainload Metals class 60 ? ive only been waiting 10 years...

Not just me then! Doing a metals one seems a fairly obvious choice to me given all the potential rolling stock out there. Accurascale PTAs for a start…. Still, I am glad we have two trainload ones this year. Here’s hoping the three greys are done right, or at least match with some previous releases (60015 for example).

[vikingsmb]

if Hornby want 200 quid for a class 08 in blue pre tops they can shove it. 

they are pricing people out of the hobby and i'm not paying 200 quid for something i cant service

Edited January 12, 2022 by vikingsmb

[adb968008]

1 hour ago, newbryford said:

 

Problem with train packs and add-ons (of two or more coaches) is deciding the production quantities.

 

Working out production numbers for those that want short or longer trains must be a "wet finger in the air" exercise.

How would you quantify how many add-ons are needed?

How many of the first add-on pack, how many of the second?

And in the case of multiple add-on packs, there would likely be less of pack 2 required to extend the train as the number of folk that can accommodate larger trains will be less than those than can fit shorter formations.

 

 

Its not too hard…

 

on lhcs, pretty much anything consists of at minimum a Brake, 1st, 2nd, Catering.

However your really only ever going to have 1 Brake and 1 Catering in a rake.

Additionally, people tend towards more 2nd than 1st in a train.

 

We see the same story all to often where a new coach comes out, and after a while the shelves are full of Brakes and 1st.. Where as catering seems to be lower production, and everyone buys up the 2nd class vehicles.

So to bring home the bacon, you need to maximise the “1” of to make sure everyone has “1”, and not neccessarily if they want it…

So package the Brake and Catering together, and even the 1st if you can, to max out that revenue… that clears the shelves, and the 2nd class is no use without the bundled package first.

 

You will always sell more 2nd, so thats the one to make easy.

 

 

 

[newbryford]

2 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

Its not too hard…

 

on lhcs, pretty much anything consists of at minimum a Brake, 1st, 2nd, Catering.

However your really only ever going to have 1 Brake and 1 Catering in a rake.

Additionally, people tend towards more 2nd than 1st in a train.

 

We see the same story all to often where a new coach comes out, and after a while the shelves are full of Brakes and 1st.. Where as catering seems to be lower production, and everyone buys up the 2nd class vehicles.

So to bring home the bacon, you need to maximise the “1” of to make sure everyone has “1”, and not neccessarily if they want it…

So package the Brake and Catering together, and even the 1st if you can, to max out that revenue… that clears the shelves, and the 2nd class is no use without the bundled package first.

 

You will always sell more 2nd, so thats the one to make easy.

 

 

 

 

It is the logical assessment that more second/standards will sell, but how many?

Stick a finger in the air?

 

So how many standards and firsts (which would be the add-ons) would you go for in relation to the others?

Ratio of brake/catering/first/standard? 

Same as the prototype?

 

That wouldn't work as most model trains - as per your observation -  would have one brake and one catering, but various extra multiples of FO/SO as the model trains were made longer.

Simple examples:

4 coach train 1x SO/1x catering/1x FO/1x brake.

11 coach train - 6x SO/1x catering/3x FO/1x brake

 

Does a manufacturer make them as a ratio 1:1:1:1, 6:1:3:1, or somewhere in between?

 

Train packs aren't helped by potentially having different periods/designs of stock either. 

It must be far easier to make a run of Mk3s of various flavours, than say a mixed Mk1/Mk2 run?

 

Unit trains become a bit more of a problem.

Do you sell single add-ons for the likes of a 390 Pendo, or packs? FO plus SO? SO+SO?

Further complicated with the extra pantograph car - when do you start making that as an add-on?

 

Who'd want to be a manufacturer these days when it isn't quite so easy to push the button to make a few more? [*]

Not me.

 

I currently believe that Rapido and Revolution have the best business models in that pre-ordering (plus a few extra for good measure) will determine the size of the production run, but the downside is that it often requires some cash up front to get the production underway in the first place.

Downside to this is having to front up some cash and having faith in the manufacturers that they will actually produce it - to a decent standard. 

Unfortunately, one recent-ish entrant to the market has heavily soured that business model with holidays in the Galapagos Islands - allegedly.

 

Accurascale seem to be somewhere in the middle as they pre-announce and have some idea of demand, but even then they were reporting sold out on some of the D*lt*cs before production was seemingly started.

 

 

[*]

Is it actually that difficult if you have enough notice?

How come Hornby managed to change the production run of 66731 Captain Tom, as demand and ensuing production numbers, ramped up very, very quickly?

 

Why don't Hornby see the level of pre-orders from their dealers - and they will hopefully know their target buyers - and manufacture accordingly?

 

I'd rather a couple of production slots slipped - because the factory is making more of model X because they have been pre-ordered and supply matches demand (or close to, to prevent the ebay scalpers) and that the delayed model Y was then also made in suitable numbers to also match supply against demand.
I'd rather it be late than not at all (or expensive via ebay)

 

Surely, that would reduce some of the vitriol that we've seen aimed towards Hornby as folk are struggling to order the likes of TPE 802s, Drax hoppers and LNER streamliner sets?

 

[adb968008]

22 minutes ago, newbryford said:

 

 

Simple examples:

4 coach train 1x SO/1x catering/1x FO/1x brake.

11 coach train - 6x SO/1x catering/3x FO/1x brake

 

Does a manufacturer make them as a ratio 1:1:1:1, 6:1:3:1, or somewhere in between?

 

 

 

Why don't Hornby see the level of pre-orders from their dealers - and they will hopefully know their target buyers - and manufacture accordingly?

 

I'd rather a couple of production slots slipped - because the factory is making more of model X because they have been pre-ordered and supply matches demand (or close to, to prevent the ebay scalpers) and that the delayed model Y was then also made in suitable numbers to also match supply against demand.
I'd rather it be late than not at all (or expensive via ebay)

 

Surely, that would reduce some of the vitriol that we've seen aimed towards Hornby as folk are struggling to order the likes of TPE 802s, Drax hoppers and LNER streamliner sets?

 

I think most would aim at a 4 coach, and gradually demand slims the higher you go ?

 

I cant imagine everyone sets out with a full length in mind… money/space becomes an issue.

 

When I started as a kid, it was D 6830 and 3 coaches, I was ok with it, but unless I was in Scotland, I never saw a 3 coach train. As I grew up I took space to get 4, then 5.

 

Now as an adult, much like my waist line, my loft diameter has increased, and I started with 7 coach passing loops and a few select 9 coach sidings.

 

If I had it my way, i’d have the garden and it’d really be out of control.

 

But going back to the beginning.. My set was no choice.. 9439, 5232 and 5120 were in the set, take it or leave it. Today we are spoilt for choice, so perhaps option 1 should be the odd balls in one box, and let the nice to haves sell singly…it might be educational too.. a lot may not know of the role of a TOE or a TGS.

 

I do however think that phoning your customers to size demand is basic Market research day 1…. “Make it and they will come” is for Hollywood. (Or should it be “Inspired by” as the phrase of 2022)

 

I have an inkling that whilst we are in a desert for Drax, we may end up swimming in a pool of Midland Pullman trailer 1sts. 

Edited January 12, 2022 by adb968008

[newbryford]

1 minute ago, adb968008 said:

 

 

 we may end up swimming in a pool of Midland Pullman trailer 1sts. 

 

I'll remember that....

(And to c*ck up the calculations, the Midland Pullman has two catering cars......)

[adb968008]

29 minutes ago, newbryford said:

 

I'll remember that....

(And to c*ck up the calculations, the Midland Pullman has two catering cars......)

catering dilemma.. too much choice on the menu.
 

That might mean a few left overs too.

lets hope the power cars arent a dogs dinner, otherwise all bets are off.

 

Edited January 13, 2022 by adb968008

[TomScrut]

7 hours ago, newbryford said:

Surely, that would reduce some of the vitriol that we've seen aimed towards Hornby as folk are struggling to order the likes of TPE 802s, Drax hoppers and LNER streamliner sets?

 

Yes, and it's interesting too how on one hand I see all over Facebook people saying "who's going to spend £450 on an 80X?" yet they seem to have gone pretty quickly. It's worth noting the Lumo one seems to have gone off the Hornby website too, and it is a boring livery in some people's eyes. I think they must be smaller runs than issued previously, the one that has just come out is readily available and is a limited edition of 1000. I would expect that either it or Celebrating Scotland would have sold out before the LNER 801 was even announced if the runs were all identical in size.

 

Whilst I don't feel great for doing it, from a selfish perspective I am glad I got all the stuff I wanted ordered directly with Hornby to give myself the best chance of getting it (other than the Drax wagons where I have obviously had to go to dealers).

[rob D2]

 

 

 i'm going to wait and see if any of the younger manufacturers make a 31 or a 50 TBH ,

 

Those are ripe for picking 

[adb968008]

1 hour ago, TomScrut said:

 

Yes, and it's interesting too how on one hand I see all over Facebook people saying "who's going to spend £450 on an 80X?" yet they seem to have gone pretty quickly. It's worth noting the Lumo one seems to have gone off the Hornby website too, and it is a boring livery in some people's eyes. I think they must be smaller runs than issued previously, the one that has just come out is readily available and is a limited edition of 1000. I would expect that either it or Celebrating Scotland would have sold out before the LNER 801 was even announced if the runs were all identical in size.

 

Whilst I don't feel great for doing it, from a selfish perspective I am glad I got all the stuff I wanted ordered directly with Hornby to give myself the best chance of getting it (other than the Drax wagons where I have obviously had to go to dealers).

Its interesting that the 2022 stuff is selling out, but the 2019-21 stuff outstanding is not yet.

 

Maybe the orders are bigger pre-2022 ? - but if its not yet made, you’d have expected an impact there too.
 

I think there might yet be time for a re-shuffle in quantities mid-summmer.

 

 

[Dunsignalling]

19 hours ago, ruggedpeak said:

We don't have data on volumes but remember model trains are sold not only in model stores but also a limited range of high street stores like Argos and John Lewis. Whilst Bachmann sell train sets you will only find Hornby train sets in any mainstream retailers.

 

Hornby and train set are synonymous and boosted by TV coverage mainstream retailers do require train sets as part of their toy offering, and that will only be Hornby as it is recognisable.

OK, so that's the (Railroad) Flying Scotsman, Mallard and the 0-4-0 Starter Sets taken care of. There's seldom more than one set per year offered on the high street that doesn't feature in that list.

 

That's probably the market segment for which batch sizes are easiest to predict for Hornby. 

 

John

[McC]

9 hours ago, newbryford said:

Accurascale seem to be somewhere in the middle as they pre-announce and have some idea of demand, but even then they were reporting sold out on some of the D*lt*cs before production was seemingly started.

 

For clarity it’s only possible to sell out with us -after- production commenced (like with the Deltic or 37 orders). We guarantee all our retailers’ preorders 100% but once a model slot is locked and the PO set it’s not possible to add more units unles you are willing to sacrifice the timeline of something else. (and while our website may show sold out, that's our direct allocation, and it's likely our retailers still have stock, and if you preorder with any of our retailers, you are guaranteed to get your item) Hope that helps!

Edited January 13, 2022 by McC

[Dunsignalling]

3 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

Its interesting that the 2022 stuff is selling out, but the 2019-21 stuff outstanding is not yet.

 

Maybe the orders are bigger pre-2022 ? - but if its not yet made, you’d have expected an impact there too.
 

I think there might yet be time for a re-shuffle in quantities mid-summmer.

 

 

That may be debateable if we actually want to see the models in 2022.

 

The transit time from factory gate to retailer's shelf seems to have grown to around four months during the pandemic.

 

John

[Train Fault]

Great news re the new tooled HST, for such an icon of the modern image its a  much needed and hopefully a fitting tribute to the prototype. From the images and what’s been said, seems a number of issues has been sorted, right down the the wheel sets and much needed coupling upgrades... here’s hoping  two of my bigger bugbears are also addressed with the iconic front end... ugly moulding lines and the droopy roofline.

 

[TomScrut]

49 minutes ago, Train Fault said:

Great news re the new tooled HST, for such an icon of the modern image its a  much needed and hopefully a fitting tribute to the prototype. From the images and what’s been said, seems a number of issues has been sorted, right down the the wheel sets and much needed coupling upgrades... here’s hoping  two of my bigger bugbears are also addressed with the iconic front end... ugly moulding lines and the droopy roofline.

 

 

That windscreen top has always annoyed me, I don't know why more people don't have issue with it TBH.

[adb968008]

1 hour ago, McC said:

For clarity it’s only possible to sell out with us -after- production commenced (like with the Deltic or 37 orders). We guarantee all our retailers’ preorders 100% but once a model slot is locked and the PO set it’s not possible to add more units unles you are willing to sacrifice the timeline of something else. (and while our website may show sold out, that's our direct allocation, and it's likely our retailers still have stock, and if you preorder with any of our retailers, you are guaranteed to get your item) Hope that helps!

Have you guys been following the drax drought saga..?

 

just sayin’

 

[adb968008]

1 hour ago, Dunsignalling said:

That may be debateable if we actually want to see the models in 2022.

 

The transit time from factory gate to retailer's shelf seems to have grown to around four months during the pandemic.

 

John

If your expecting 2022’s range to be delivered in 2022, your more optimistic than me.

 

i’ve only just received 2019’s Azuma, this week, and that was due to deliver pre-covid.

 

 

Edited January 13, 2022 by adb968008

[MikeParkin65]

1 hour ago, McC said:

For clarity it’s only possible to sell out with us -after- production commenced (like with the Deltic or 37 orders). We guarantee all our retailers’ preorders 100% but once a model slot is locked and the PO set it’s not possible to add more units unles you are willing to sacrifice the timeline of something else. (and while our website may show sold out, that's our direct allocation, and it's likely our retailers still have stock, and if you preorder with any of our retailers, you are guaranteed to get your item) Hope that helps!

And this is how to run a model railway company that serves and benefits both the modeller and the retailer. Hornby seems fixated on inventing multiple ways to sell 'product' that serve only to frustrate the customer and the retail trade. Trying to be too clever from a marketing perspective and losing sight of the fact that the aim of the game is to deliver as much 'treasure' into our hot and excited little hands as possible, generate good will and encourage repeat custom. 

[GordonC]

23 minutes ago, TomScrut said:

 

That windscreen top has always annoyed me, I don't know why more people don't have issue with it TBH.

 

Is it the top edge of the windscreen thats drooping or just the way the orange stripe line has been painted? On the prototype it looks like the orange stripe should basically meet the top of the windscreen rather than go up and over it. The actual windscreen glass looks like it has a straight edge

[PhilJ W]

Hornby are getting to be a bit too aggressive in some of their marketing as demonstrated by the 'Titfield Thunderbolt' saga. I hope they know who they are taking on over that 

 https://www.studiocanal.co.uk/ only the worlds third largest film distribution company.

Edited January 13, 2022 by PhilJ W