Hornby 2023 Speculation?

[frobisher]

3 hours ago, wombatofludham said:

I wasn't thinking the 153 should be binned, just the 155.  The current 153 is fine as a "Railroad" model but the 155 isn't.

 

The one they haven't rerun since they made the 153 pretty much?

 

The leap to a 155 from the current 153 may not be too great.  If the 153 body wasn't set up with the provision for the necessary slides to make a 155 from it, then they will have the CAD that could be modified accordingly to produce the new body tooling required.  Adding lighting etc is a different matter, but could be coordinated with an upgrade to the 153.

[Ravenser]

47 minutes ago, TomScrut said:

 

Given that 156 is basically 2 locos, I'd say that's a bargain not pricey!

 

 

 

 

 

Why? Hornby charge about £230 for a class 60!

 

 

 

 

 

But Hornby charge £145 for a 2 car DMU using legacy tooling (the 110). That's RRP... Not discount price. (You will have to pay the full list price with Realtrack, whereas with Hornby you will normally be able to pick them up at a discount to RRP. So the comparison is already slanted against Hornby..)

 

The 156 is much the same thing as the 110 . I had already "allowed" an extra £30-£35 above the current RRP of the 110 when I suggested they would be about 2/3rds of Realtrack's £270 (I'm implying an RRP of £180 there)

 

A full fat high spec 60 is a different animal, and not a sensible comparator

 

Besides , in the real world  you can have a new Hornby 60 and 2 Accurascale HYAs thrown in  for £240 

Kernow - 60 + 2 x HYA

 

That is real world prices , available now... 

 

It's taken Bachmann a decade to get 158s back in the shops ... During that time Bachmann have had 1 DMU on offer. And they sell 158s for £280 at Kernow .  The best Bachmann can offer about a new Turbostar is that the project hasn't been cancelled...

 

This rather suggests that Second Generation and Post Privatisation MUs aren't exactly the volume money-spinners they were 15 years ago (And that many of us have kept "seeing" things in the Bachmann range long after they have ceased to be available in the shops)

 

The days of picking up a new DMU for £60 from the end of run discounting are long long gone . It's a serious commitment now to buy a new-tooled DMU. That affects potential sales volumes

 

And in 5 years' time costs in China and prices here will have risen still further. Just how far are we from hitting the wall in terms of what the market will bear?

 

Hence pouring investment into new tooling that increases your production costs compared with existing serviceable and largely depreciated tooling for the same subject looks questionable business

 

Unless you can deliver a substantial upgrade to the finished product, at an manageable price, you cannot get people to replace their existing models with your shiny new product. Without the "upgrade cycle" sales volumes are going to be seriously curtailed .  The days when a new loco or multiple unit could be an impulse purchase are over, as well

 

It was "the upgrade cycle" that drove the 20 Fat Years from 1999.

 

Your investment in tooling therefore needs to be directed into new subjects , not yet offered (and those are getting few in OO)  or into replacements for tools that are reaching the end of their life

 

There's an assumption that TT:120 is a madcap venture that is starving the OO range of the investment it needs. The reality may well be that a Class 66, Mk1s and Gresley Pacifics in TT , using Design Clever to keep production down , is a much better investment than tooling up high end duplicates in OO

 

I think we can agree that a TT Class 66 will sell far more in Eastern Europe and here , than Hornby tooling up a high-end 66 or 37 in OO. TT Mk1s may well sell much more than doing things like Grampians or Barnums in OO

[Patriot87003]

6 hours ago, Ravenser said:

TT Mk1s may well sell much more than doing things like Grampians or Barnums in OO

Agree … but that can only happen if enough MK1s are manufactured!

 

Hornby seem to have form for over producing some oddball items (such as the ballast cleaning support MK1s), while under producing bog-standard items (such as TSOs and even FOs in popular liveries).

 

I’ve browsed various shops including Hornby’s website and TSO’s are sold out in many popular liveries across it’s MK1, MK2 and MK3 ranges.

 

For me, this creates an ‘open-goal’ to Hornby for its 2023 range … to produce more batches of TSO’s and FO’s. This may also help sell more of it’s currently in-stock items that compliment them, such as the Blue-Grey and Intercity RBR’s that are currently in stock.

With other manufacturers producing new loco’s such as the Class 37, 47, 50 and 86 etc, these hauled many bog-standard rakes of blue-grey, Intercity, NSE etc … so I think it’s likely that there is unfulfilled demand for these. Accurascale have identified this and are producing the MK2B, the sub-type not produced before … but if Hornby or Bachmann don’t produce more batches of the bog-standard vehicles soon, this could create an open goal for the likes of Accurascale to produce say MK1s?

 

I think this is also relevant to Hornby’s TT-120 range. I hope they are intending to manufacture more FO’s than buffet cars and many more TSO’s than FO’s! Especially as it will be easier to model full length rakes in the smaller scale, so more TSO’s will be required.

 

For Hornby not to have any blue-grey MK1 TSO’s in stock is a bit like McD’s not to have any big-mac’s in stock! A baffling way to run a business.

[TomScrut]

7 hours ago, Ravenser said:

The 156 is much the same thing as the 110 . I had already "allowed" an extra £30-£35 above the current RRP of the 110 when I suggested they would be about 2/3rds of Realtrack's £270 (I'm implying an RRP of £180 there)

 

A full fat high spec 60 is a different animal, and not a sensible comparator

 

Besides , in the real world  you can have a new Hornby 60 and 2 Accurascale HYAs thrown in  for £240 

Kernow - 60 + 2 x HYA

 

I don't follow. How is it not a fair comparison?

 

One car of the Realtrack 156 is probably of a similar specification to a Hornby 60. Motor, DCC socket, lots of detail. If anything the 156 is more complex due to the lighting and underfloor drive system. And both cars are to that specification. Therefore I don't see why you think it should be £180 for a 2 car unit.

Edited December 29, 2022 by TomScrut

[gc4946]

For next year's rolling stock announcements:

 

A newly tooled Mk1 BFK - never done RTR by any manufacturer

LMS/BR Stanier non-corridor push-pull coach

A pre-group Scottish railway company van (either Caledonian or North British Railway - examples survive in preservation)

 

Lined BR maroon Stanier non-corridors

A train pack of four wagons to celebrate the centenary of the big 4: GWR, LMS, LNER, SR

 

 

[TomScrut]

48 minutes ago, Patriot87003 said:

to produce more batches of TSO’s and FO’s.

 

I don't know if it's to do with MOQs or what, but they almost always end up with the oddments left (buffets, brakes etc) and the ordinary TSO/FO disappear. The only example I can think of where that wasn't the case was LNER mk3s in the first run, the buffet went first. We have had 2 more runs of coaches since then though and no more power cars 🤯

[Philip Jackson]

I doubt it's coming but class 124 trans pennine please

[JohnR]

On 18/12/2022 at 20:56, Steamport Southport said:

 

Why when there is a perfectly good Bachmann version? More pointless duplication.

 

 

Perfectly good? The tooling is over 20 years old, and havnt produced one for several years. A new model is long overdue. 

[AY Mod]

3 minutes ago, JohnR said:

 

Perfectly good? The tooling is over 20 years old, and havnt produced one for several years. A new model is long overdue. 

 

It's still very good but a sound and features upgrade would be welcome. Before any 4MT whurs my 2MT?

[Mr chapman]

3 hours ago, gc4946 said:

 

A train pack of four wagons to celebrate the centenary of the big 4: GWR, LMS, LNER, SR

Hmmm... I like that idea. Should be nicely affordable and a bit different. I'd buy one. 

3 hours ago, gc4946 said:

 

 

[Dunsignalling]

1 hour ago, AY Mod said:

 

It's still very good but a sound and features upgrade would be welcome. Before any 4MT whurs my 2MT?

Bachmann's Standard 4 tank does hold up pretty well overall, though I'm purely analogue. The "son et lumiere" mob would doubtless appreciate some added modern electrickery.

 

Bachmann has a record of (apparently) giving up on past subjects; "losing" the Manor, GWR mogul and Lord Nelson through inaction, and ending up with the Standard 4 4-6-0 and B1 getting duplicated. I was surprised that others held back as long as they did, and with the number of players now active in OO, such procrastination becomes ever more dangerous.  

 

I reckon any loco that hasn't been produced for ten years is fair game without accusations of "duplication" being justified, especially if it's never been offered with so much as a DCC socket! 

 

John

Edited December 29, 2022 by Dunsignalling

[Steamport Southport]

39 minutes ago, JohnR said:

 

Perfectly good? The tooling is over 20 years old, and havnt produced one for several years. A new model is long overdue. 

 

Any more overdue than the Fowler Tanks that date from about 1980 and is a Hornby staple?

 

Or the Stanier 3 cylinder version that Hornby already have the vast majority of with the 2 cylinder version?

 

Or the LMS 3P 2-6-2Ts that have never been made RTR? Ideal for all those non corridor coaches they make.

 

 

I would rather Bachmann update their version instead. Leaving Hornby to do other things.

 

 

Jason

[Dunsignalling]

29 minutes ago, Steamport Southport said:

 

I would rather Bachmann update their version instead. Leaving Hornby to do other things.

 

Jason

 

I tend to agree, but on past form, how likely is that?

 

Academic for me, though, as I'm perfectly content with the ones I already have.

 

I reckon the Bachmann Standard 4MT (not updated) and Ivatt 2MT tanks (half the job done, but well off the current pace on appearance/detail) are both at risk, but probably not from Hornby.

 

John

Edited December 29, 2022 by Dunsignalling

[griffgriff]

42 minutes ago, Mr chapman said:

Hmmm... I like that idea. Should be nicely affordable and a bit different. I'd buy one. 

 

I like that…. Perhaps there could be a post nationalised pack featuring vehicles from the big 4 in BR liveries…. or even the last survivors?

[Ravenser]

5 hours ago, TomScrut said:

 

I don't follow. How is it not a fair comparison?

 

One car of the Realtrack 156 is probably of a similar specification to a Hornby 60. Motor, DCC socket, lots of detail. If anything the 156 is more complex due to the lighting and underfloor drive system. And both cars are to that specification. Therefore I don't see why you think it should be £180 for a 2 car unit.

 

Your claim was that Hornby would charge £230 for a 156 if they had one in the current catalogue. Because, you said, that would be the RRP of a Class 60, and they would charge the same.....

 

But Hornby are actually charging £145 RRP for another 2 car unit from legacy tooling (the 110). That indicates what Hornby would be likely to charge for a 2 car 156 using their legacy tooling, if they had it in the current catalogue

 

I never suggested that Realtrack "ought" to charge £180 for their 156 unit. I was simply pointing out that the Realtrack 156 is pretty expensive , which limits its sales . Hornby can sell their 156 model as a budget/affordable alternative , and as a cautious estimate a Hornby 156 is likely to be 2/3rds the price of the Realtrack one, maybe even lower...

 

Therefore Hornby can continue to produce  and sell 156s , as a budget/affordable model with a large price advantage, and Realtrack have a limited impact on their sales.

 

I am not persuaded that the market for very high spec models is more than a limited part of the overall market. The experience of Continental HO in similar circumstances is that chasing the top end in terms of spec /retooling in a saturated market ends up in prohibitive prices, small volumes, a collapse in demand , and manufacturer bankrupcies.The players who did ok in that environment were the ones offering budget ranges of affordable models - Piko being a prime example. 

 

Some of Piko's models were compromised - the dirt cheap HO Corails that were far too short with windows completely the wrong shape being a prize example . I wouldn't touch them with a barge pole - but that's not the point. The point is that they sold well because they were cheap, Piko made money on them, and thrived and grew. Meanwhile Roco , who make accurate Corails at about 3x the price, went through bankrupcy. As the Yanks say, "go figure"

 

I might also point to Dapol. Dapol in N barely announce any new tooling. But they knock out stuff from their existing tooling with great vigour , at modest prices. At Warley they were selling Class 66s off the stand for £100. 6 JNAs (3 packs of 2) could be bought for £100. Bachmann announce new Farish tooling each year but there are complaints that they just don't make a regular supply of staple items like Mk1 coaches. What is actiually coming out of the Kadar factory in N is surprisingly limited. I suspect Dapol are setting a market level that constrains prices for Farish , to the point that Bachmann Europe aren't able to bid high enough to secure sufficient production slots for N. Hornby's pricing for TT120 may well be set with one eye on the cost of N gauge. They need TT120 to be a little cheaper than N : which is now rather cheaper than the prices we see in OO

 

Farish also do a 66 in N. It costs rather more than the Dapol model, and I suspect it may be a little better. But the Dapol model is a decent one, with centre motor drive and lights, well finished. And Dapol are still selling it merrily .

 

(Full disclosure: I'm building a small N gauge layout as a side project. I had a modest core of stock stockpiled for years which includes 2 Dapol 66s I was given (long story...). I need more stock to run the thing - it's a wagon works - and I'm not really in a position to spray cash around recklessly on a side project. I snapped up a Class 33 for £80 off the Dapol stand at Warley. I managed to talk the man on the stand into letting me have a pack of JNAs for £35 , as he only had 2 packs of GB Railfreight ones left... That's £17.50 each for a perfectly decent large wagon. Farish TEAs meanwhile cost £43 in the local model shop, and the Revolution JNA-T a very similar amount. I've only bought one of those. I'm not in the market for old tat, but I find myself warming to Dapol in N...)

 

Dapol and Piko in different ways show there is an alternative approach to chasing the top end with higher and higher spec new tooling. Hornby are plainly positioning themselves to go in the Dapol/Piko direction in OO - whether we like it or not .Accurascale , Cavalex. SLW and Revolution are built on a business model designed to cope with smaller volume markets, they have no incumbent business to defend, and they can ride the high-end train to the end of the line and survive. The flip side of that is that their business model does not allow stock items that are continuously available. If you miss it - it may or may not come round again in 5 or 6 years time *(OK, SLW will sell you a different sub-species of the genus Rat...)

 

Meanwhile yesterday I tripped over a Sams Trains video on "The 5 Worst Trains of 2022" . Some of them are things I wouldn;t complain about, but interestingly every one of the 5 is Bachmann Europe...

 

None of this addresses whether Hornby's overheads are too high, or whether they are sharp enough in picking the right paint and detail varients, or whether they have the webshop and logistics fully up to speed for what they are attempting online.

 

But their tooling investment strategy is not necessarily wrong, commercially

[Ravenser]

6 hours ago, Patriot87003 said:

Agree … but that can only happen if enough MK1s are manufactured!

 

Hornby seem to have form for over producing some oddball items (such as the ballast cleaning support MK1s), while under producing bog-standard items (such as TSOs and even FOs in popular liveries).

 

I’ve browsed various shops including Hornby’s website and TSO’s are sold out in many popular liveries across it’s MK1, MK2 and MK3 ranges.

 

For me, this creates an ‘open-goal’ to Hornby for its 2023 range … to produce more batches of TSO’s and FO’s. This may also help sell more of it’s currently in-stock items that compliment them, such as the Blue-Grey and Intercity RBR’s that are currently in stock.

With other manufacturers producing new loco’s such as the Class 37, 47, 50 and 86 etc, these hauled many bog-standard rakes of blue-grey, Intercity, NSE etc … so I think it’s likely that there is unfulfilled demand for these. Accurascale have identified this and are producing the MK2B, the sub-type not produced before … but if Hornby or Bachmann don’t produce more batches of the bog-standard vehicles soon, this could create an open goal for the likes of Accurascale to produce say MK1s?

 

I think this is also relevant to Hornby’s TT-120 range. I hope they are intending to manufacture more FO’s than buffet cars and many more TSO’s than FO’s! Especially as it will be easier to model full length rakes in the smaller scale, so more TSO’s will be required.

 

For Hornby not to have any blue-grey MK1 TSO’s in stock is a bit like McD’s not to have any big-mac’s in stock! A baffling way to run a business.

 

 

You haven't been able to buy a Bachmann Mk1 TSO in blue/grey for some time . (Come to that, folk are complaining you can't bu a Farish Mk1 at all)

 

I've recently upgraded an old Lima coach to a TSO: Lima Mk1 TSO project  Naturally I looked around to see what the Bachmann equivalent would cost , to persuade myself I wasn't being a fool upgrading an old dog.

 

And I was a bit taken aback to find there was no Bachmann model available , indeed almost no blue/grey Mk1s in their range....

[TomScrut]

16 minutes ago, Ravenser said:

Your claim was that Hornby would charge £230 for a 156 if they had one in the current catalogue. Because, you said, that would be the RRP of a Class 60, and they would charge the same..

 

No. That's not what I meant at all.

 

Given they charge £230 for a Class 60, it makes a £270 Realtrack 156 look good value given it is basically two locos. You said the RT 156 was expensive, I don't think it is if you consider what you get and what people charge (and pay) for locos.

 

16 minutes ago, Ravenser said:

Hornby can sell their 156 model as a budget/affordable alternative , and as a cautious estimate a Hornby 156 is likely to be 2/3rds the price of the Realtrack one, maybe even lower...

 

Ok, I follow you now. I thought you meant a 156 the same spec as the Realtrack one should be £180.

 

I aren't sure how you can say a Realtrack one is expensive at £270 if you think Hornby can justify charging £180 for theirs. When it was £110 (the RAF one for example) I didn't even consider it. It's like saying a Ford Focus should be 2/3rds the price of a Rolls Royce.

 

The interesting thing for me is how Realtrack and Rapido can make money building a few hundred 156s at a time and charging £270 for them when other stuff seems comparatively expensive. No offense to Charlie and the guys there, but how many could they sell if it has a Hornby or Bachmann box around it and the dealer presence?

Edited December 29, 2022 by TomScrut

[Ravenser]

1 minute ago, TomScrut said:

 

 

 

I aren't sure how you can say a Realtrack one is expensive at £270 if you think Hornby can justify charging £180 for theirs. When it was £110 (the RAF one for example) I didn't even consider it. It's like saying a Ford Focus should be 2/3rds the price of a Rolls Royce.

 

 

Very few people can afford to drive a Rolls Royce . There is a large market for cars like a Ford Focus.

 

The Japanese built a large car industry targetting the market for Ford Focuses. If they'd tried to target the Rolls Royce market , it wouldn't have worked

 

My point is that prices of top end items are starting to become prohibitive, not simply in relative terms , but in absolute terms - in terms of the household budget . And it's going to get steadily worse. People are now looking at prices and starting to say "sorry, I can;t afford that".

 

In 5 years time that problem will be much worse. Production costs in China will continue to rise much faster than earnings here

 

Therefore , if the existing model is already to a good standard - why retool?  If you have a budget model - you can keep selling it: why retool?

 

We are running out of new subjects with a broad reach in OO 

 

 

[McC]

35 minutes ago, Ravenser said:

 

.Accurascale , … are built on a business model designed to cope with smaller volume markets, they have no incumbent business to defend, and they can ride the high-end train to the end of the line and survive. The flip side of that is that their business model does not allow stock items that are continuously available.

Again I must correct you there. Our business model is neither smaller volume nor one shot wonders. Our HUO wagons have been continuously available since we launched them 4 years ago and all our major lines will be likewise as demand dictates.
 

Our model is not carrying legacy business , debt and overhead which provides the edge, not a high price low volume. Our models are typically cheaper than the ‘big two’ on a similar basis. 

Edited December 29, 2022 by McC

[TomScrut]

13 minutes ago, Ravenser said:

Very few people can afford to drive a Rolls Royce . There is a large market for cars like a Ford Focus.

 

I think the market for a Focus would be significantly smaller than it is if it was 2/3rds the price of a Rolls Royce. That's what I was getting at.

 

13 minutes ago, Ravenser said:

My point is that prices of top end items are starting to become prohibitive, not simply in relative terms , but in absolute terms - in terms of the household budget . And it's going to get steadily worse. People are now looking at prices and starting to say "sorry, I can;t afford that".

 

Value for money is also a big factor in this. If you don't have £270, what would you do with your £180?

 

1. Buy a vastly inferior alternative for £180

2. Save longer for the thing you actually want.

3. Buy something completely different.

4. Simply not bother.

 

With a 156, I can't see option 1 being chosen very often.

Edited December 29, 2022 by TomScrut

[D9020 Nimbus]

People have been talking about items ending up in "bargain bins" as an indication of which models are unpopular. But what models are ending up in bargain bins. Of those retailers doing post-Christmas sales, I've looked at TMC (and Rails of Sheffield, but they don't provide a meaningful comparison since they don't sell Hornby. What is there?

• There are far more Bachmann models in bargain bins than Hornby.
• The only Hornby Railroad models to appear are the basic 0-4-0s.
• The loco of which the most variants appear for sale as bargains is the relatively new Bachmann class 47s, including the sound deluxe models that are supposed to sell out fastest. However none of these are the blue or green liveries—they're all sectorisation liveries.
• There are no J 0-6-0s available as bargains. The only 0-6-0s that are available are some of the Hornby Sentinels in the more up-to-date liveries. The only steam loco of which multiple variants are on offer as bargains is the Bachmann D11 4-4-0. This includes the GC liveried version.
• The type of item that appears the most often as bargain items is Bachmann OO Scenecraft. By comparison there is very little Hornby Skaledale on offer.

Hornby themselves are offering a few items, including the Network Rail class 31 at £143—well below list price.

[TomScrut]

1 hour ago, D9020 Nimbus said:

Hornby themselves are offering a few items, including the Network Rail class 31 at £143—well below list price.

 

Interesting analysis in general, but that one is a funny one. I think it was about £150 RRP when it first came out wasn't it?

[Ravenser]

2 hours ago, D9020 Nimbus said:

People have been talking about items ending up in "bargain bins" as an indication of which models are unpopular. But what models are ending up in bargain bins. Of those retailers doing post-Christmas sales, I've looked at TMC (and Rails of Sheffield, but they don't provide a meaningful comparison since they don't sell Hornby. What is there?

• There are far more Bachmann models in bargain bins than Hornby.
• The only Hornby Railroad models to appear are the basic 0-4-0s.
• The loco of which the most variants appear for sale as bargains is the relatively new Bachmann class 47s, including the sound deluxe models that are supposed to sell out fastest. However none of these are the blue or green liveries—they're all sectorisation liveries.
• There are no J 0-6-0s available as bargains. The only 0-6-0s that are available are some of the Hornby Sentinels in the more up-to-date liveries. The only steam loco of which multiple variants are on offer as bargains is the Bachmann D11 4-4-0. This includes the GC liveried version.
• The type of item that appears the most often as bargain items is Bachmann OO Scenecraft. By comparison there is very little Hornby Skaledale on offer.

Hornby themselves are offering a few items, including the Network Rail class 31 at £143—well below list price.

 

Kernow is interestingly similar. Certainly more Bachmann than Hornby, and D11, 47, 57 , 4 CEP, 3 car 159 , 2-EPB, 150 all feature. Also the more exotic stuff - Brighton Atlantics, Birdcages, 04s in ROD livery. There is also a lot of Scenecraft buildings , some of them old stock (when did they do Harrow and Sheffield Park?), but very little Skaledale

 

APTs from both Rapido and Hornby being remaindered. I suspect all runs of APT are now going as bargains

 

Dapol 73s being cleared as a train pack with the 4TC set. Accurascale HYAs being cleared. Only 1 Heljan item (O2)

 

No small engines from Hornby . Several green Pacifics, but by and large the Hornby bargains are unusual stuff  that you would expect to have limited demand - brakedown and engineers coaches , brakes (both passenger Mk1s and vans ) , restaurant cars, exotic liveries 

 

I've been repeatedly assured that  3 and 4 car MUs will sell , because Bachmann and others are making them. We'll only know if they do sell once things have advanced to the stage where they are either sold out or being cleared as bargains. But there are quite a lot of longer EMUs being cleared, and exotic subjects/liveries seem to end up in the bargain bins

 

We've frequently been told Hornby are sitting on a large pile of unsold stock in their warehouse. On this showing - either they don't want to release it, or it's something other than OO trains (Airfix, Scalectrix , HO ...)

Edited December 29, 2022 by Ravenser

[Les1952]

7 hours ago, AY Mod said:

 

It's still very good but a sound and features upgrade would be welcome. Before any 4MT whurs my 2MT?

 

For that matter how about a 3MT?

['CHARD]

4 hours ago, Ravenser said:

 

Meanwhile yesterday I tripped over a Sams Trains video on "The 5 Worst Trains of 2022" . Some of them are things I wouldn;t complain about, but interestingly every one of the 5 is Bachmann Europe...

 

 

Really?  I don't recall the Baldwin 4-6-0 or Gandy Dancer being BE products?