2023 Overall Feeling

[Pete the Elaner]

I think much of the market has become saturated.

You can make a reasonable layout of anything in the steam era. A few classes here & there may be missing but that still leaves you with a good selection.

They are trying to fill small pockets like the streamlined Sandringham. There was a "huge" class of 2.

That followed last year's announcement of the Turbomotive. Although it is my favourite steam loco, I cannot deny that it spent long periods in Crewe under repair, so would typically be out of service.

 

There is a huge hole though: EMUs. We have seen premium trains like the APT, Pendolino, Eurostar & Javelin but these all serve huge stations. As much as I would love a scale model of Crewe, I will never build it.

Small stations are served by more ordinary units; we have a selection of Sprinters & Pacers. We have a small number of MK1 based DC units, but only 1 AC EMU, Bachmann's 350. Hornby have made an APT, 86, 87, 90, 91, Pendolino, Javelin & Eurostar. Apart from the last 2 which are pretty much (but not completely) HS1 only, the others have nothing to run alongside them.

 

The only thing Hornby could have announced to make me say 'wow' was an AC EMU.

I am far from a young modeller now, but I can't model any line in my living memory because they were all served mainly by units. The same is true for many living in the outlying areas around London, Manchester, Liverpool or Glasgow. A constant flow of loco hauled services in any of these areas looks unrealistic & you have to get into the hobby before you start to think about building kits.

 

I wasn't expecting to place an order for any of Hornby's new announcements. A pleasant surprise would have been nice but I didn't get one.

Is it any wonder there are fewer younger modellers now? Fewer & fewer of new releases are of trains they can actually identify with.

[Dunsignalling]

1 hour ago, Ravenser said:

 

It works out at GBP 510 for most variants of a n inside cylinder 0-6-0. It needs to look good at that price.

 

The context is me speculating about a possible NSW shunting plank Sydney harbourside shunting plank

 

Possible motive power candidates 73 class diesel shunter (way too late) , a C30 (Baltic tank for shunting ... 😵) or a Z19 . The real things were used as shunters at Darling Harbour Goods until 1971

 

But at over 500 quid for a shunting engine for a possible side project I'm passing...

 

If you really want a Z19 , that's the price, and this may be your only chance. You can't buy a model of one of those on the second hand market. Other shunters are not in current production

 

However if we are talking about 4Fs, 25s, 31, 37, 47, Jinties, Q1s, J39s etc - other options would be available

 

(in fairness Eureka seem to be more modestly priced Eureka NSWGR 40 class  and Eureka 50 class . But there's something odd about the state of their site - some of the pages are quoting 2012-14 prices and the blog posts comprise Loram ipsum..  Still, it's 388 quid for a 2-8-0. I'm seeing people on here posting that they won't pay above £180 for a loco, and someone saying that £85 RRP for a Pug is a grotesque ripoff ... )

 

 

 

 

All things are relative.

 

No £500 loco will ever be an impulse buy, but if it was the only thing of any real personal interest being made over the next twelve months, and the quality could be trusted, the price might look less off-putting. It would for me, anyhow, though I doubt I'd run to two of them! 

 

The problem for Hornby is that Accurascale and Rapido both have 4-6-0s coming at RRPs that are under £180, and which we who have ordered them anticipate will equal or better the standard of similar sized Hornby locos with RRPs £30 to £70 higher.

 

I will be buying at least one high-priced Hornby 4-6-0, but only because I want it enough. However, my wallet will have had plenty of time to recover from the Manors, Jones Goods et al by the time I have to pay for it.

 

PS. An RRP a penny off ninety quid for an 0-4-0ST made from 1980s tooling is grotesque. I doubt it costs much more to produce than a Smokey Joe!

 

John

Edited January 12, 2023 by Dunsignalling

[Tallpaul69]

Its January, so its time for the annual moan about Hornby's release plans for the coming year!

 

The interesting items for me, on a first look, are mainly for the more modern eras of my layout rather than the 1960s version.

Like a lot of folks commenting on the thread re the new program, I am pleased to see the new TTA tankers, although I do hope that the models are all new, not the old tank mouldings on one of Hornby's more recent chassis for wagons based on reused TTA chassis!

I also like the new bogie bolsters.

On the loco front the sound fitted class 56s appeal, as does the Network Rail class 960, provided the later is a modified or new class 101 body not just stickers on the original mouldings!

One item that did appeal for the 1960s although the model released is pre war, is the Gresley full brake, which will hopefully appear in maroon, sometime in the next few years. That is provided it is a new model, not a rerun of an old model?

I have yet to delve into the blue tooth DCC system. If this is a bespoke Hornby system, then it will not be of any use to me, but it could be a good development. 

 

Given the current economic situation, I did not expect much from this year's announcements, so I am not disappointed, but I hope you all found something of interest?

Best regards

Paul   

[RedgateModels]

I am genuinely excited about the HM7000 range. Just hope I’m not let down later….

[Ravenser]

2 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

 

All things are relative.

 

No £500 loco will ever be an impulse buy, but if it was the only thing of any real personal interest being made over the next twelve months, and the quality could be trusted, the price might look less off-putting. It would for me, anyhow, though I doubt I'd run to two of them! 

 

The problem for Hornby is that Accurascale and Rapido both have 4-6-0s coming at RRPs that are under £180, and which we who have ordered them anticipate will equal or better the standard of similar sized Hornby locos with RRPs £30 to £70 higher.

 

I will be buying at least one high-priced Hornby 4-6-0, but only because I want it enough. However, my wallet will have had plenty of time to recover from the Manors, Jones Goods et al by the time I have to pay for it.

 

PS. An RRP a penny off ninety quid for an 0-4-0ST made from 1980s tooling is grotesque. I doubt it costs much more to produce than a Smokey Joe!

 

John

 

The Rapido  Jones Goods is £220 upwards: Rapido Jones Goods  . That won't be discounted in the way Hornby is routinely discounted, because you are asked to order direct from Rapido

 

No criticism of the project is meant, but the real thing was only sighted south of Perth on 1950s railtours, and I don't think it's ever been south of either Berwick or Carlisle . I won't be getting one because it's simply not relevant to anything I'm doing , and I suspect quite a bit of the production will sit in glass cases as "trophy models" (I can justify 10001 and Hardwicke on the layout, with a very slight stretch; 10800 and a skirtless J70 or a Sonic A5 would need no real stretch at all)

 

As far as the Pug is concerned, it is about as cheap as any scale loco on the market. It's only slightly more expensive than a newly tooled Bachmann coach!  Nearly 2 years ago I paid £84 as a bargain clearance price (not RRP) for a Hattons Barclay . That was a not-strictly necessary impulse purchase.

 

A J70 would be similar but it's 50% dearer . I saw  J70s at a show before the pandemic , thought "nice but.. maybe" and walked on. I'm still in that frame of mind. It's just a bit expensive as an impulse purchase, and I've even less need for it having bought a Barclay

 

Calling the cheapest scale loco on the market grotesquely overpriced, while singing the praises of the value for money represented by a £220 loco seems misplaced. There are folk who can run to £100 and might just go to £150 - but at £200 for a purchase they are out

 

Even £220 looks like a bargain when compared to Australian HO . I don't think the Aussies are being ripped off - that's what a high spec low volume loco costs when you get it from a Chinese factory. And it will get worse and worse each year

 

Keep chasing the premium model at premium price philosophy and a large part of the hobby will be out of the new 4mm RTR market in a few years- though not out of the hobby, by any means.

 

An arms race in retooling things over and over again every few years will only make things worse. Someone claimed the new Bachmann 47 had cost a 7 figure sum to tool ( I suspect that's a misunderstanding, but he was claiming the market would support tooling investment without limit) 

 

And it's prudent not to count your chickens before they hatch in terms of model quality. I'm sure Heljan Garretts were awesome until they arrived ....

[Dunsignalling]

53 minutes ago, Ravenser said:

 

The Rapido  Jones Goods is £220 upwards: Rapido Jones Goods  . That won't be discounted in the way Hornby is routinely discounted, because you are asked to order direct from Rapido

 

No criticism of the project is meant, but the real thing was only sighted south of Perth on 1950s railtours, and I don't think it's ever been south of either Berwick or Carlisle . I won't be getting one because it's simply not relevant to anything I'm doing , and I suspect quite a bit of the production will sit in glass cases as "trophy models" (I can justify 10001 and Hardwicke on the layout, with a very slight stretch; 10800 and a skirtless J70 or a Sonic A5 would need no real stretch at all)

 

As far as the Pug is concerned, it is about as cheap as any scale loco on the market. It's only slightly more expensive than a newly tooled Bachmann coach!  Nearly 2 years ago I paid £84 as a bargain clearance price (not RRP) for a Hattons Barclay . That was a not-strictly necessary impulse purchase.

 

A J70 would be similar but it's 50% dearer . I saw  J70s at a show before the pandemic , thought "nice but.. maybe" and walked on. I'm still in that frame of mind. It's just a bit expensive as an impulse purchase, and I've even less need for it having bought a Barclay

 

Calling the cheapest scale loco on the market grotesquely overpriced, while singing the praises of the value for money represented by a £220 loco seems misplaced. There are folk who can run to £100 and might just go to £150 - but at £200 for a purchase they are out

 

Even £220 looks like a bargain when compared to Australian HO . I don't think the Aussies are being ripped off - that's what a high spec low volume loco costs when you get it from a Chinese factory. And it will get worse and worse each year

 

Keep chasing the premium model at premium price philosophy and a large part of the hobby will be out of the new 4mm RTR market in a few years- though not out of the hobby, by any means.

 

An arms race in retooling things over and over again every few years will only make things worse. Someone claimed the new Bachmann 47 had cost a 7 figure sum to tool ( I suspect that's a misunderstanding, but he was claiming the market would support tooling investment without limit) 

 

And it's prudent not to count your chickens before they hatch in terms of model quality. I'm sure Heljan Garretts were awesome until they arrived ....

My Jones Goods has been ordered from the big H for £186.96, so, OK not quite under £180, but my Caprotti 5 can only be obtained direct from the other H at full RRP of c.£250.

 

In practice though, the "Arms Race" will self-regulate at a batch size where demand for detail and willingness to pay meet. Substitute nostalgia for detail and  this is basically what Hornby is trying to do with their neo-HD range. Those that won't pay (and quickly because the quantity is arbitrary) don't get. 

 

The "new boys" canvass demand at a quoted price before deciding to  proceed with a model and how many to produce, which is likely to dissatisfy fewer people!

 

My guess is that, so long as TT:120 comes up to Hornby's expectations (big if) they will gradually shift their emphasis in OO away from fully detailed stuff for "modellers" and to either end, the lucrative die-cast range for "collectors" and a somewhat better defined Railroad with the real antiques weeded out, and expanded with simplified versions of current "full-fat" models. Good enough for most as bought and with user detailing potential for those who care and can.

 

John

Edited January 12, 2023 by Dunsignalling

[spamcan61]

56 minutes ago, Ravenser said:

Someone claimed the new Bachmann 47 had cost a 7 figure sum to tool ( I suspect that's a misunderstanding, but he was claiming the market would support tooling investment without limit) 

 

 

Bachmann's own press release I think, which quoted over a million pounds development costs for the 47. So more to it than tooling costs, although I'd suspect they're a big chunk of that million quid.

Edited January 12, 2023 by spamcan61

[Dunsignalling]

The Million Quid statement was indeed from the horse's mouth, but the Class 47 is an extreme case.

 

Bachmann claim to be able to produce a model of almost every individual class member,  at most points in their careers, from their tooling suite. Potentially thousands of different models.

 

Even before mass withdrawals got under way, there were barely two of them the same!

 

John

Edited January 12, 2023 by Dunsignalling

[dazedandconfused]

As usual more than enough in the new range to keep both me and my bank manager happy. The last of my 2022 orders arived a couple of days after Christmas so no carry over costs to worry about.

[newbryford]

4 hours ago, RedgateModels said:

I am genuinely excited about the HM7000 range. Just hope I’m not let down later….

 

Me too.

Already pre-ordered...... And I think that's it from the 2023 list for me.

I'm still waiting for one of the 2022 announcement to turn up (and I don't mean 08632)

[D9020 Nimbus]

Interesting to compare the relatively few offerings for OO with an extremely ambitious programme for the various Hornby International ranges. That seems to be where the investment in new tooling is largely going. Mostly in the rather less developed markets (France/Spain/Italy) than Germany.

 

Most of the International ranges were loss-making; all with the exception of Electrotren have been in trouble at least once before (or more—twice for Jouef in its own right plus once as part of the Lima group, in a country where it was, at the time, the only domestic manufacturer). So it looks like the U.K. is getting left behind, except of course for TT:120.

[Dunsignalling]

33 minutes ago, D9020 Nimbus said:

Interesting to compare the relatively few offerings for OO with an extremely ambitious programme for the various Hornby International ranges. That seems to be where the investment in new tooling is largely going. Mostly in the rather less developed markets (France/Spain/Italy) than Germany.

 

Most of the International ranges were loss-making; all with the exception of Electrotren have been in trouble at least once before (or more—twice for Jouef in its own right plus once as part of the Lima group, in a country where it was, at the time, the only domestic manufacturer). So it looks like the U.K. is getting left behind, except of course for TT:120.

If Hornby are concentrating their efforts where there's less (or no) competition to contend with (HO for overseas and TT:120 at home) they probably have fairly radical ideas about the future shape of their activities in OO.

 

Once the "catch ups" are out of the way, will 2023 be the pattern for the future? 

 

John

 

 

[Pteremy]

I thought that the international release looked interesting, although as I don't normally get to see them the novelty factor may be skewing things. Even so, if I wanted a dabble in something different I think i would be more likely develop some sort of European theme, rather than the familiar UK stuff but in a different scale.

[John M Upton]

I am still struggling to see the point of "Collectors" models which are clearly marketed solely at the stuffed and mounted in a glass case brigade (and in many cases never even come out of the box!!)

 

Surely if it is never going to be run, produce them as dummy models, indeed just buy the Great Bulbous Lumps version, far cheaper and no wasted cost on motors and running gear....

[Dunsignalling]

1 hour ago, John M Upton said:

I am still struggling to see the point of "Collectors" models which are clearly marketed solely at the stuffed and mounted in a glass case brigade (and in many cases never even come out of the box!!)

 

Surely if it is never going to be run, produce them as dummy models, indeed just buy the Great Bulbous Lumps version, far cheaper and no wasted cost on motors and running gear....

The "collector" market is what it is, and dummy locos would just be "ornaments" rather than models.

 

Tooling and making separate working and non-working versions of locomotives is unlikely to create significant savings and might actually cost more overall than making a single product. If the market was for 100,000 or 200,000 of each, the sums might add up, for a hundredth of those numbers, almost certainly not.

 

Also, "non-runners" would be perceived as lesser products and "the market" would expect them to be substantially cheaper!

 

John

Edited January 14, 2023 by Dunsignalling

[Dick Turpin]

8 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

 "non-runners" would be perceived as lesser products and "the market" would expect them to be substantially cheaper!

 

Maybe market the motorless version as the "Original First Production Run", and the second, motorised version as the, "Functionally Modified Version" or something like that, so that the collector gets a collectable, and the modeller gets a working model. Of course, the true collector will want both, so you can't win! On price - who knows?

[Dunsignalling]

Just now, Dick Turpin said:

 

Maybe market the motorless version as the "Original First Production Run", and the second, motorised version as the, "Functionally Modified Version" or something like that, so that the collector gets a collectable, and the modeller gets a working model. Of course, the true collector will want both, so you can't win! On price - who knows?

I very much doubt that the relatively small quantities involved would justify the extra complication introduced to the production process.

 

The wholesale cost of the motors used in most r-t-r locos only represent about 1% of the total price anyhow.

[D9020 Nimbus]

Dapol have made several dummy locos in N gauge, although there isn’t a huge difference in price. By contrast, Farish have stated that it wouldn't be viable to produce a "dummy" class 20.

 

One time there were quite a lot of non-powered locos produced for the US HO market — F7s and the like in particular (and not just the cabless "B" units). I don't think this is the case any longer.

[Les1952]

On 12/01/2023 at 15:06, locoholic said:

Marketing-led rather than product-led? That sounds ominously like spending money on passing off old or below-par stuff, rather than making things that people actually want to buy. MBA buzzwords are no substitute for quality and innovation.

 

WHO SAYS it is below par?  RMWebbers or the people who buy the stuff? 

 

A lot on this forum are saying that they aren't going to buy the new stuff.  Big numbers on the many Facebook groups seem to be indicating they will buy.  Looking at the number of FB groups I am offered and the numbers each has these groups may well outnumber RMWeb by a considerable margin - no proof but a gut feeling that grows more with each new group I encounter.

 

Even Sam's Trains has 131,000 subscribers, which seems to be up by 20,000 in the last three months.....

 

The Railroad Plus stuff and a lot of the rest will sell well to those who either haven't got or begrudge spending £200 plus on a new engine or £50 plus on a coach.

 

Les

[Steamport Southport]

Add me to the buying section.

 

More Castles.

Some bogie bolsters to replace ancient ones.

Prince (ripe for detailing) but I want to keep the main livery as is.

The J36 I wanted in the first place and will go with my small collection of Scottish locos.

A B17/5 when they decide which one is early BR condition....

 

I just hope they soon start selling the L&M coaches separately at some point. I don't need multiple packets of three. 

 

Not bad for what some are seeing as a lean year.

 

 

Jason

[Dunsignalling]

8 hours ago, Les1952 said:

 

WHO SAYS it is below par?  RMWebbers or the people who buy the stuff? 

 

A lot on this forum are saying that they aren't going to buy the new stuff.  Big numbers on the many Facebook groups seem to be indicating they will buy.  Looking at the number of FB groups I am offered and the numbers each has these groups may well outnumber RMWeb by a considerable margin - no proof but a gut feeling that grows more with each new group I encounter.

 

Even Sam's Trains has 131,000 subscribers, which seems to be up by 20,000 in the last three months.....

 

The Railroad Plus stuff and a lot of the rest will sell well to those who either haven't got or begrudge spending £200 plus on a new engine or £50 plus on a coach.

 

Les

Though it's by no means certain that Facebook groups or the followers of Sam's Trains are any more representative of the hobby as a whole than we on RMWeb are...

 

Excepting those fairly new to the hobby, many will have built up a fair stud of locos while quality was high (the odd occurrence of Mazak rot notwithstanding) and Hornby's prices a good deal lower than currently. 

 

Such people may be inclined only to buy items they want and, if unable or unwilling to pay the prices of "full-fat" models, have the option to pass altogether. Alternatively (for instance) an Accurascale Manor or diesel, will significantly undercut the price of anything comparable from Hornby.

 

Even those with remaining red-box loyalty might choose to seek used high-spec Hornby rather than settling for new budget items. I've acquired half-a-dozen Hornby Bulleid Pacifics in the past 18 months, including two superb (and evidently unused) TMC editions with names/numbers not offered by Hornby, that averaged out at less than half the current RRP. One (advertised as a non-runner) turned out to be fine, and another (not so specified) had a replacement tender chassis with reversed polarity! Ran without tender, shorted with, so I didn't need to get Mr Holmes on the case.

 

The real-world choices on offer to us are much less clear-cut than even five years ago....

 

John

Edited January 15, 2023 by Dunsignalling

[Ravenser]

It's not just Hornby who would be affected by people saying "thanks I'll pass" or buying second hand. It's everyone in RTR OO

 

Hornby, uniquely, are attempting to offer budget/mid range "affordable" models . Some of this is from old tooling, some of it is from new tooling done to a less than "all bells and whistles" standard. Call it Design Clever, call it Railroad Plus , there's quite a bit of it in their tooling bank - Pendolino , 395 Javelin, Tornado, Crosti 9F, Maunsell EMUs , Railroad Mk1s...

 

Others are pressing on with the "premium model at a premium price" strategy . But unless they are offering something that's never been done before - which is increasingly getting quite difficult with locos and coaches - they depend on people replacing their existing models , or adding extra models to their fleets .

 

The "upgrade cycle" has largely been switched off, as the gains from "better" versions are getting quite modest now and prices are starting to get a little prohibitive for many people. At these sorts of prices the scope for impulse purchases and "I can't resist another one " is also restricted.

 

There is certainly a market for very expensive model trains  (The cynic in me mutters "it's called Gauge O" ... ) How big that market is and how far it can sustain the RTR manufacturers, is another matter

 

There is a risk of a "buyer's strike" setting in - it seems to have happened in Continental HO a few years back. But that would be across the board . Hornby are not in fact the highest-priced range around, and they are the only player making a serious attempt at offering an "affordable" range as an alternative.

 

Over the next few years it will be interesting to watch the commercial success or otherwise of current projects from all the manufacturers, as well as their new project announcements. I don't quite see OO RTR as a golden opportunity for anyone to make money over the next 5 years 

[Dunsignalling]

OK, I don't know many of the ER/LNER fanatics whom Hornby evidently consider their prime market right now.

 

However, there is no sign of any "buyer's strike" among my friends and acquaintances in relation to manufacturers (other than Hornby) announcing/producing innovative subjects that we want.   

 

Hornby seems to be a brand becoming regarded as "out of touch" with the market (irrespective of delivery issues) and may be taking something of a kicking as a result. 

 

Everything I want from Hornby is almost two years away (on their own predictions), but the money I might have spent with them in the meantime will not be lost to model railways! Starting with two hundred quids-worth of EFE coaches in the coming week or so.  

 

John

Edited January 15, 2023 by Dunsignalling

[adb968008]

On 12/01/2023 at 16:27, Pete the Elaner said:

 

 

I wasn't expecting to place an order for any of Hornby's new announcements. A pleasant surprise would have been nice but I didn't get one.

Is it any wonder there are fewer younger modellers now? Fewer & fewer of new releases are of trains they can actually identify with.

100% absolutely.

 

I sometime read on here and think i am the only one left on the forum who still goes out standing on platforms.

 

 

Yesterday I was the oldest geezer in town at KX, Paddington and Marylebone.

 

Yet I must have come across at least 100 other enthusiasts below 30.

One kid was rushing us at the end of the platform having not just seen, but ridden all 5 class 91’s out there yesterday, making us all laugh with admiration.

 

Red LNER 91 is just sooo last year.
 

 

At Blackfriars the 73/9’s came in, around 20-30 kids were watching and knew about it… I was the only one over 30.

 

Several talked about their “archive” photos from 2015-2017… I had silence when I moved 2 feet up the platform and showed them my video of a GNER Eurostar departing in 2003 on the exact spot I was standing… then went on to talk about remembering a Deltic standing where some scaffolding is on what the fueling point, and pointing out the “hole” hiding in plain sight that was York road.

 

(The crowd got a bit older at Peterborough)..

 

There is a growing bunch of unit chasers too.. pointing out the ex-C2C Electrostars now on GN, as well as the Gatex ones.

 

 

Interesting even Twitter is seen as out of date.. its Instagram and Tiktok (though tiktoker’s are apparently todays “lunatic fringe”).

 

 

 

I discussed modelling, they all said the same thing… if there was something to buy they would. of everything above, the only thing you can accurately buy I saw yesterday from Hornby, is the GWR / LNER 800’s and the Test train coaches.

 

But there was only 1 name on their lips… I don't need to say it, needless to say it wasn't Hornby, one went as far as to say Hornby is just for babies and grandparents…

Edited January 15, 2023 by adb968008

[Dunsignalling]

My platforming is currently suspended due to age and weather! 

 

I've been getting odd photos whilst waiting for/changing trains, but any resumption of "lurking" is probably a couple of months away!

 

One of the most recent taken in decent sunshine attached.

 

John