Hornby Tier System

[BachelorBoy]

1 hour ago, Phil Parker said:

 

Hornby's demise has been predicted on here many times. And they are still trading. 

 

And Hornby's revival has been predicted by every new set of management, and yet its share price is lower than it was thirty years ago, and it continues to lose money.

 

The main shareholders, Phoenix, have an appalling record of choosing duffers to duffers to run Hornby on their behalf. What's different this time?

 

 

 

 

[spamcan61]

53 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

 

Except that it's already happening, but it's a gradual process that the market so far seems able to handle.

 

Oh absolutely, I buy virtually all my toy trains used via eBay / FB and most have clearly never been used. I've never understood why this process is often seen as some sort of step function when in fact it's been going on for years and will continue to do so. Personally I'd rather buy tatty unboxed stuff (it's cheaper and I feel less guilty about modding it) but that's relatively rare.

 

[Dunsignalling]

36 minutes ago, BachelorBoy said:

 

I very much doubt it would have been successful.

 

The products were embarrassingly bad, according to my steam punk acquaintances. 

 

 

 

 

 

At the time, Steampunk struck me as a minimum-cost attempt to dip a toe in the water of a market that Hornby only understood on a very superficial level. 

 

However, the only serious damage was probably to the future credibility of Hornby's Bassett-Lowke brand.

 

Edited December 29, 2023 by Dunsignalling
spelling

[Dunsignalling]

12 minutes ago, spamcan61 said:

Oh absolutely, I buy virtually all my toy trains used via eBay / FB and most have clearly never been used. I've never understood why this process is often seen as some sort of step function when in fact it's been going on for years and will continue to do so. Personally I'd rather buy tatty unboxed stuff (it's cheaper and I feel less guilty about modding it) but that's relatively rare.

 

The place to get tatty and unboxed hacking-fodder is the boxes under the tables at exhibitions and traditional swap-meets.

 

Most eBay traders find packing such items for despatch more trouble than it's worth.

Edited December 29, 2023 by Dunsignalling

[The Stationmaster]

17 hours ago, Hroth said:

 

Which could put the venture into TT:120 into perspective, it's Plan B, just in case their core OO market contracts.

 

I incline to the view that it is more likely to be (or have been when conceived) Plan A.    Hornby needed a niche, and in their case a very big one, in which to make their mark and charge away ahead of any competition.  And that is TT120.

 

The problem they potentially face is that as it grows it has to keep on finding new markets and turning them into longr term customers because otherwise it is simply going to be further Balkanisation of their existing tangle of model railway sub-brands.

 

On a wider front having spolen to several people in the comnpany in recent times there seems to be a lot more positivity among them - the people who do the work that brings in revenue - than has been the case in the past few years.  Of nothing else that must be an encouraging sign.  Very simple really - get the right people in the right management structure (ideally at the right cost base of course) and let them get on with managing the job.  Some  will take time to get used to working in a new (to them) market are) but that's going to have to be a short learning curve.   However overall I get the impression that the company might new be better placed, and definitely in a far more positive mood,  than it has been for some time.

[JohnR]

3 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

However, the only serious damage was probably to the future credibility of Hornby's Bassett-Lowke brand.

 

 

I keep seeing people say this, but I really dont think thats the case. If you were to ask 100 modellers what they associate Bassett-Lowke with, I dont think you'll get that many talking about the SteamPunk range. And thats more because the range didn't take off. 

[BachelorBoy]

5 hours ago, Phil Parker said:

 

And that's the problem. Loads of people with no skin in the game enjoying predicting the demise of Hornby. 

 

 

Imagine, if you can, being a real person who works for Hornby reading gleeful predictions of their demise. Predictions based on very little actual information. How would you feel? 

 

 

Spot on. Alone on this thread, I have actually sat down in a room and talked to the new management. There will be an interview in an upcoming BRM. As you've already seen, the direction is changing, mainly the emphasis on certain areas, but that's based on a "big picture" approach to the business, which I think they have the background and experience to pull off. Obviously this won't suit anyone who cares nothing beyond demanding an obscure SR shunter, but it’s what the business needs. 

 

Hornby's demise has been predicted on here many times. And they are still trading. 

 

Every model railway magazine editor has skin in the game in wanting Hornby to survive: who wants an advertiser to go broke? :-)

 

I look forward to reading the interview.

 

Assume for a moment the new management's got the right ideas about the big picture ... but do they have the skills to implement them?

 

I worked for a big organisation a while back. The new head honcho, to my mind, had exactly the right ideas about strategy and how the organisation had to adapt. 

 

But he was a bit of smart-arse robot and had no idea how to communicate to workers and management why the changes were needed, let alone how they were to be made.

 

So it didn't end well.

 

 

Edited December 29, 2023 by BachelorBoy
removed excess empty lines

[Michael Hodgson]

2 hours ago, The Stationmaster said:

I incline to the view that it is more likely to be (or have been when conceived) Plan A.    Hornby needed a niche, and in their case a very big one, in which to make their mark and charge away ahead of any competition.  And that is TT120.

 

But will it be their niche?  Assuming TT120 does take off, surely the other manufacturers will follow suit.  There's plenty of other prototypes to choose from besides what Hornby have already announced.  It must be easier to scale down existing CAD from OO to TT120 or up from N than between the established scales.

 

For all we know, there may be some as yet unnannounced competition already being assembled in China.

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

I'll freely confess to having watched Hornby's doings with occasional surprise since the new competitor (that would be Bachmann, 30-some years ago) jumped into their private swimming pool and made a big splash. But Hornby have generally pulled around, and the state of play on my layout is that while Bachmann undoubtedly swept the board in freight vehicles, Bach and Hornby are pretty much on par in locos and coaches, even in the 'workaday' smaller black locos that Bachmann pioneered. And it is all good product too.

 

Other than Heljan and Oxford Rail, the other newcomers have yet to make a real impression, one or two purchases only (and all of them good) but yet to make a major impact. (It's Ellis-Clark alone that have me watching, Quad-Arts...)

 

Hornby should be able to churn their OO tool bank for years to come with a little imagination - how about the odd fictitious livery such as BR lined green on their very lovely Bugatti front P2?

[Phil Parker]

21 minutes ago, BachelorBoy said:

 

Every model railway magazine editor has skin in the game in wanting Hornby to survive: who wants an advertiser to go broke? :-)

 

I look forward to reading the interview.

 

Assume for a moment the new management's got the right ideas about the big picture ... but do they have the skills to implement them?

 

I worked for a big organisation a while back. The new head honcho, to my mind, had exactly the right ideas about strategy and how the organisation had to adapt. 

 

But he was a bit of smart-arse robot and had no idea how to communicate to workers and management why the changes were needed, let alone how they were to be made.

 

So it didn't end well.

 

 

 

You've posted 7 times in 7 hours in this topic. Stop obsessing about the subject for a bit. Chill.

 

FWIW, I've met the team, and have the comments of someone who also knew them and now works elsewhere. We both have confidence that none of your last four lines are likely to be relevant to this situation, but only time will tell.

[BachelorBoy]

4 minutes ago, Phil Parker said:

 

You've posted 7 times in 7 hours in this topic. Stop obsessing about the subject for a bit. Chill.

 

 

I'm not obsessing. I'm at work and there's b*gg*r all to do and I'm bored. :-)

Edited December 29, 2023 by BachelorBoy
typo

[adb968008]

6 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

 

Except that it's already happening, but it's a gradual process that the market so far seems able to handle.

 

Because of a combination of things…

1. Stuff made in the 1980’s/90’s has already been dumped, and replaced in super detail.

2. The 90’s crash soaked up and ultimately has been largely washed out the system.

3. The 2000’s era models were produced in lower volumes than the 80’s/90’s so there is less of it to dump.

4. spares for 2000’s era stuff was less so than 80/90’s, so canabalism is rampant on ebay, reducing the supply further.

5. prices of newer stuff, will inflate / hold down the 2000’s era stuff that cannot be replaced at a similar price point.

 

There isnt a Lima over producing to cause a 90’s Lima, or 2000’s Germanic “run out of road” crash.

 

I do believe there is too much, too highly priced arriving too late but its divided by many suppliers, some quite small.

If there was a bad outcome, I suspect some suppliers will ratchet back the number of toolings, whilst some smaller ones may go back to a 9-5 job, and cashout the toolings to others.

 

This will leave a market for 2000’s era toolings that will shrink in qty over time.

 

But what would concern me more isnt an implosion and mass walk away from the hobby, but an implosion in China.. theres only a few factories and if the work dries up and they shutdown.. then what ?

Edited December 29, 2023 by adb968008

[Pint of Adnams]

6 hours ago, Phil Parker said:

 

No it wasn't. It came about because the Steampunk market is massive, ask any preserved line who hold a Steampunk weekend. An opportunity was spotted and cheaply tried. Would things have been different if Covid hadn't stopped plans to go to those weekends with the product?  Maybe. But it's not a bad idea to stick to the facts. 

 

Obviously a fan then - there's a very big difference between a certain element of society dressing up in a particular 'fashion' and a preserved line refraining from sticking lots of out-of-gauge unnecessary pipework and similar pointless accoutrements on its locos and rolling stock.

 

The facts are more likely to be that Hornby jumped on a minority (as a proportion of the modelling fraternity) bandwagon and hoped to make a cheap killing as you typed; I doubt that there was a meaningful connection between attendance at steampunk events and peaks in purchasing Hornby steampunk products, Covid or no Covid - unless of course you have the facts to prove otherwise.

 

I'm not sure at times if you are an agent provocateur or a moderator?

[Phil Parker]

1 minute ago, Pint of Adnams said:

The facts are more likely to be that Hornby jumped on a minority (as a proportion of the modelling fraternity) bandwagon and hoped to make a cheap killing as you typed; I doubt that there was a meaningful connection between attendance at steampunk events and peaks in purchasing Hornby steampunk products, Covid or no Covid - unless of course you have the facts to prove otherwise.

 

I'm not sure at times if you are an agent provocateur or a moderator?

 

I'm someone who has talked to the main players, including the director behind the project and the guy who designed the models. I've brought you the facts as they explained them to me. You prefer your own fantasy, but it doesn't change the facts.

 

And it's never a clever idea to insult a moderator.

 

[irishmail]

2 hours ago, Michael Hodgson said:

But will it be their niche?  Assuming TT120 does take off, surely the other manufacturers will follow suit.  There's plenty of other prototypes to choose from besides what Hornby have already announced.  It must be easier to scale down existing CAD from OO to TT120 or up from N than between the established scales.

 

For all we know, there may be some as yet unnannounced competition already being assembled in China.

TT:120 has taken off very well with both exsiting modellers and new entrants to the hobby. A lot of the Hornby TT:120 products have sold out already, and it is popular in Mainland Europe with Tillig, Piko and now Roco. 

Yes would be nice for other manufactures to follow suit and I hope they will in due course.

[Hal Nail]

Seems slightly odd that there are any number of threads on RMWeb suggesting there is virtually no management or leadership talent in this country whatsoever, and yet it seems we have a staggeringly high number of experts amongst the membership.

[Michael Hodgson]

2 hours ago, BachelorBoy said:

 

I'm not obsessing. I'm at work and there's b*gg*r all to do and I'm bored. :-)

Perhaps you need to look for a more satisfying job?

[Dunsignalling]

3 hours ago, JohnR said:

 

I keep seeing people say this, but I really dont think thats the case. If you were to ask 100 modellers what they associate Bassett-Lowke with, I dont think you'll get that many talking about the SteamPunk range. And thats more because the range didn't take off. 

 

Prior to Steampunk, Hornby never did much with the brand anyway, leave it a decade or so for most of the stuff to end up recycled or in landfill, and it'll be usable again. 

 

[Michael Hodgson]

18 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

 

Prior to Steampunk, Hornby never did much with the brand anyway, leave it a decade or so for most of the stuff to end up recycled or in landfill, and it'll be usable again. 

 

I never took steampunk seriously.  Bassett-Lowke to me still means (old, but good quality for its time) O gauge.

[Dunsignalling]

2 minutes ago, Michael Hodgson said:

I never took steampunk seriously.  Bassett-Lowke to me still means (old, but good quality for its time) O gauge.

 

TBH' I'm over 70 and it was before my time. I never even saw any until about ten years ago.... 

 

[Michael Hodgson]

1 minute ago, Dunsignalling said:

 

TBH' I'm over 70 and it was before my time.

 

Yes, me too, but I've been operating a layout that has some B-L stock for over half a century - and it was old when I first encountered it.

Doesn't need a lot of maintenance.

[Ravenser]

One point that is loosely related to the topic: commercial structure of TT:120 going forward.

 

Hornby is now selling TT:120 on a retail model quite similar to that used by their "new boy" competitors : the bulk of the sales direct online supplemented by a limited number of retail stockists. (In one or two cases the same model shop offers both TT:120 and AS or Cavalex...)

 

You could almost say there is a "TT:120" tier....

 

At the moment Hornby have about 8 UK retailers for TT:120 , whereas the "new boys" typically have 12-20 retailers. I suspect Hornby's retail base will enlarge over time - there was an interesting little episode where TT:120 pages appeared on Kernow's website then disappeared.. But they have included one major box-shifter in Gaugemaster , and in Germany they've made British outline TT:120 available to the four biggest German box-shifters  (and nobody else , so far as I know). It's not such a big step in Germany , since all four retailers will already be doing extensive business in 1:120 scale RTR for German and Eastern European outline, and no doubt carry the Arnold TT range

 

By and large the "new boys" here do not deal with box shifters, although Rails of Sheffield have sold some brands.

 

It was suggested that Hornby decided  to market TT:120 online not through model shops because they would have had to order an extra 300 + unkits of each set just to give each shop one set...

 

Ergo Hornby deal with over 300 model shops for model railways, and the true total will be higher since there are shops that don't stock Hornby (eg Rails of Sheffield).

 

Obviously those shops that stock Accurascale are not necessarily those that stock Rapido. (etc) Even so, its difficult to see the total number of retailers stocking one of the "new boys" being more than about 60-75. In other words perhaps 75% of all model shops do not sell them - those that do are a small subset of the retail trade

 

This is one good reason why the demise of Hornby would not be in the interests of the hobby. Maybe 3/4s of model shops would lose all their Hornby sales revenue, with nothing to replace it. That would surely make quite a few unviable . It does not seem unreasonable to suggest we would lose around a third of model shops if Hornby went bust. That is sobering - especially as many of Hornby's most hostile critics claim to be fighting in defence of the local model shop.  (It wouldn't be that much better if Bachmann went, for the record - although Bachmann would be much more likely to go the way of the Cheshire Cat)

 

But there does seem to be a general trend of a retreat towards a smallish core of retailers + direct online sales in the market place. It seems unreasonable to assume that Hornby can or will swim directly against this tide and single-handedly reverse it - especially when they need sales to get into the black and can't be over picky about where and how they get them

 

Which means the problem of retail channels, managing relationships and supplies to the retail trade, are ongoing and probably insoluble without someone losing out - whether Margate or some other party. Tiers may have gone but the commercial policy problems do not thereby disappear

[Ravenser]

1 hour ago, Michael Hodgson said:

Perhaps you need to look for a more satisfying job?

 

Its the week between Christmas and New Year, when every office is dead...

 

(My employer is simply closed till 2/1/24...)

[cctransuk]

On 29/12/2023 at 10:28, BachelorBoy said:

 

I very much doubt it would have been successful.

 

The products were embarrassingly bad, according to my steam punk acquaintances. 

 

 

 

 

 

Spot on!

 

Whoever thought of sticking a few leftover sprues on totally life-expired models should have been despatched to secure accommodation immediately.

 

Sorry - but I have yet to meet anyone who didn't burst into laughter when Hornby Steampunk is mentioned.

 

Steampunk may be big - even huge; but did anyone do any research whatsoever into whether Steampunk enthusiasts would be interested in playing trains?

 

I seriously doubt it!

 

CJI.

Edited December 30, 2023 by cctransuk

[JohnR]

23 minutes ago, cctransuk said:

 

Spot on!

 

Whoever thought that sticking a few leftover sprues on totally life-expired models should have been despatched to secure accommodation immediately.

 

Sorry - but I have yet to meet anyone who didn't burst into laughter when Hoenby Steampunk is mentioned.

 

Steampunk may be big - even huge; but did anyone do any research whatsoever into whether Steampunk enthusiasts would be interested in playing trains?

 

I seriously doubt it!

 

CJI.

 

They worked with well known SteamPunk enthusiast Laurie Calvert, and he did help in the initial promotion too.