Hornby Tier System

[ColinB]

21 minutes ago, RichardT said:

Any chance we can put this canard to bed? If this was true there’d be no modellers of anything before 1948, no modellers of First World War aircraft or vehicles, no modellers of sailing ships etc etc.

 

RichardT

Of course there will always be modellers that model historic things, but in this thread we are talking about shifting numbers of items to make a profit. Hornby have just spent a fortune producing a model of the Turbomotive, I notice to my dismay (I preordered it and paid 10% below recommended retail) that a few retailers are discounting it, so obviously not as popular as they thought. Yes there were loads of people saying that is what they have been waiting for, but obviously not enough as they would have sold out.

[Fair Oak Junction]

And yet other strange, unique, and prototype steam locomotive models have sold incredibly well. So it could just be that the Turbomotive isn't very popular rather than an era issue?

 

Certainly I have no interest in it, but love prototype locos! Still waiting for someone to do LMS Fury in RTR 😄

[Dunsignalling]

8 minutes ago, ColinB said:

Of course there will always be modellers that model historic things, but in this thread we are talking about shifting numbers of items to make a profit. Hornby have just spent a fortune producing a model of the Turbomotive, I notice to my dismay (I preordered it and paid 10% below recommended retail) that a few retailers are discounting it, so obviously not as popular as they thought. Yes there were loads of people saying that is what they have been waiting for, but obviously not enough as they would have sold out.

The cost of carrying stock has increased along with interest rates.

 

This may have reduced the period for which retailers are willing/able to do so.

 

Early discounting suggests a need to maintain cash flow ahead of the next batch of deliveries.

 

John

[ColinB]

1 hour ago, Dunsignalling said:

The cost of carrying stock has increased along with interest rates.

 

This may have reduced the period for which retailers are willing/able to do so.

 

Early discounting suggests a need to maintain cash flow ahead of the next batch of deliveries.

 

John

Not too long ago a model would be sold out within a month of its release. I remember when I was in the market for certain ones they would be gone, sometimes within a week. HD Duchess of Atholl people couldn't get for love nor money and that was within days of its release. Even Jenny Kirk couldn't get one. It you look around the retailers they seem to have loads of the current HD A4s. So yes they are carrying the stock for longer because it is not selling out as quickly as it used to. It probably is going to get worse because I can't be the only one that noticed their preordered model is now in the bargain basement which means many people will be not so keen to preorder. A comparison I do, is look at the Accurascale models they virtually get sold out immediately, then look at the Hornby ones.  

[Dunsignalling]

18 hours ago, ColinB said:

Not too long ago a model would be sold out within a month of its release. I remember when I was in the market for certain ones they would be gone, sometimes within a week. HD Duchess of Atholl people couldn't get for love nor money and that was within days of its release. Even Jenny Kirk couldn't get one. It you look around the retailers they seem to have loads of the current HD A4s. So yes they are carrying the stock for longer because it is not selling out as quickly as it used to. It probably is going to get worse because I can't be the only one that noticed their preordered model is now in the bargain basement which means many people will be not so keen to preorder. A comparison I do, is look at the Accurascale models they virtually get sold out immediately, then look at the Hornby ones.  

TBH, for 99% (and quite probably more) of us the Turbomotive would be a pure Rule One purchase.

 

As prices inexorably rise, those no longer even appear on my radar. The furthest I'll stretch things nowadays is if a loco could have appeared on a railtour c1960. That's the excuse for my (pre-ordered) Rapido Jones Goods. 

 

The ersatz Dublo models are deliberately under-produced to create an image of exclusivity, make "enough" and their USP evaporates. At least 90% will, in all probability, have been sold to pre-order. With the usual production batch of 500 that leaves a maximum of 50 Duchesses to satisfy everybody else. Interesting to see that the A4 bubble may have at last popped, though....

 

Both are purely aimed at obsessive HD collectors, IMHO; the only advantage over the plastic versions for normal mortals is if you need the extra weight for haulage. As their competitors increasingly offer diecast bodies as standard, though, how long will Hornby get away with not including them in the main range? 

 

The reason Accurascale products sell out quickly is that they actually have an effective way of determining demand before deciding how many models are to be produced. By contrast, Hornby book the batch sizes before even telling us or their dealers what prototypes they intend to cover. It's not surprising they almost always get it wrong. 

 

With Hornby, getting what you want can be a gamble. If you really want a particular item, pre-order (direct) and suck up the price, if you want a discount, wait and see. On some occasions it'll work out and you get a bargain; on others they will have undershot demand. Then you do without or pay a premium to an ebay speculator who did plan ahead.  

 

Hopefully, this is one of the things the new team at Hornby are in the process of sorting out, but right-sizing production batches will inevitably lead to fewer and smaller discounts.

 

John 

Edited January 2 by Dunsignalling

[The Stationmaster]

On 01/01/2024 at 13:27, BachelorBoy said:

 

Do you think Hornby is still a "must have" brand for shops (general or specialist) that sell model railways in the way that supermarkets feel they have to stock Heinz and Coca-Cola?

 

 

 

 

That's a fascinating question.  Some years ago i came across a local department store in a town in the West of England which sold model railway items .  Not absolutely unusual you might think but the odd thing was that it didn't sell Hornby but only had Bachmann items.

 

I doubt a model railway shop would prefer not to drop or lose  Hornby but it might of course have been dumped by Margate.  Or it might have, for whatever reasons, done  a Rails and dumped Margate rather than the other way round.  In the end I think it comes back to what others have already said - a lot depends on what the customers want.

 

And an inescapable fact is that for many people not particularly into model railways Or various other hobbies) Hornby is a grand they have heard of and usually associate with 'toy trains'.  That is a big incentive for any newcmers and for those buying presents for younger relatives or deciding they want a new hobby/. Almost tthe same as when we are using a vacuum cleaner and say we are 'hoovering' - not that we have ever actually owned one of that brand.

[adb968008]

22 hours ago, RichardT said:

Any chance we can put this canard to bed? If this was true there’d be no modellers of anything before 1948, no modellers of First World War aircraft or vehicles, no modellers of sailing ships etc etc.

 

RichardT

Your ignoring one very poignant part…

 

many of the locos modellers today are growing up around are preserved steam and diesel.

 

Just look at how popular Bluebell railway models have been…

[adb968008]

11 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

 

 

The ersatz Dublo models are deliberately under-produced to create an image of exclusivity, make "enough" and their USP evaporates. At least 90% will, in all probability, have been sold to pre-order. With the usual production batch of 500 that leaves a maximum of 50 Duchesses to satisfy everybody else. Interesting to see that the A4 bubble may have at last popped, though....

 

Don't forget Hornby's customer is the retailer…. A sell out to retail is a message to Hornby they got it right.

 

If the retailer ends up waitin a year for delivery and laden with them for 6 months and sells them at a big discount… then it wasnt a win…. 
 

The problem is the lead time for Hornby to learn…

 

those Turbomotive were ordered in Jan 2022, and retail orders would indicate a hot sell. However it’s 18 month later to being discounted, and the W1 may have been the indication they were on a winner, a year earlier still in 2021, which means we might see Hornby go another round in Jan 2024 with another frankenloco and think its a money spinner with an extra 20% on the last one and think its a lottery win… but the market may have already voted with its feet, but it maybe 2025 before Hornby learns…

 

in that instance it may be taking 3 years for the message to go from consumer to marketing.

 

Where I think Hornby will struggle is a tool room full of Frankenlocos… most will only ever buy one of an experimental loco, and that box is checked….

 

Imo they abandoned there roots, which was to go for a mid market loco, produce a few often for decades with repeat runs…. weve not seem a box blue tops 08 now since before Covid…. This should be a stock item year round imo with a new running number every batch.

W1, Turbomotive… they are job done.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 2 by adb968008

[Dunsignalling]

6 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

Don't forget Hornby's customer is the retailer…. A sell out to retail is a message to Hornby they got it right.

 

If the retailer ends up laden with them for 6 months and sells them at a big discount… then it wasnt a win…. 
 

The problem is the lead time for Hornby to learn… those Turbomotive were ordered in Jan 2022, and retail orders would indicate a hot sell. However it’s 18 month later to being discounted, and the W1 may have been the indication they were on a winner, a year earlier still in 2021, which means we might see Hornby go another round in Jan 2024 with another frankenloco and think its a money spinner with an extra 20% on the last one and think its a lottery win… but the market may have already voted with its feet, but it maybe 2025 before Hornby learns…

 

in that instance it may be taking 3 years for the message to go from consumer to marketing.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I strongly suspect that a high proportion of the "HD" locos are pre-sold direct.

 

If I were after something of which I knew there would only be 500 produced, I wouldn't take a chance on any given dealer getting one...

 

Edited January 2 by Dunsignalling

[Widnes Model Centre]

3 hours ago, The Stationmaster said:

 

 

I doubt a model railway shop would prefer not to drop or lose  Hornby but it might of course have been dumped by Margate.  Or it might have, for whatever reasons, done  a Rails and dumped Margate rather than the other way round.  In the end I think it comes back to what others have already said - a lot depends on what the customers want.

Hi Mike,

For the sake of accuracy and also by way of an explanation for Rails customers who were unable to purchase Hornby.

Rails lost their Hornby account…. Something to do with the same person who thought aptly,  in this thread, Tiers were a good idea.

The day Rails lost their account was a Black Day for Hornby as l believe Rails had the wholehearted support of the whole retail trade.

 

Edited January 2 by Widnes Model Centre

[AY Mod]

18 minutes ago, Widnes Model Centre said:

Rails lost their Hornby account…. Something to do with the same person who thought aptly,  in this thread, Tiers were a good idea.

 

 My understanding is that rather than being a lost item it was one handed back with the problem being another person with the problem being resolved by the new management.

[spamcan61]

1 hour ago, adb968008 said:

 

 

Where I think Hornby will struggle is a tool room full of Frankenlocos… most will only ever buy one of an experimental loco, and that box is checked….

 

Imo they abandoned there roots, which was to go for a mid market loco, produce a few often for decades with repeat runs…. weve not seem a box blue tops 08 now since before Covid…. This should be a stock item year round imo with a new running number every batch.

W1, Turbomotive… they are job done.

 

This is what has baffled me about the "quirky one off" strategy Hornby have followed. Takes the same amount of limited resources as a "bread and butter" release. But how many people will buy 10 Turbomotives or W1s? Pretty much nobody. Different story for Spamcans, Black Fives, Westerns. Bizarre strategy.

[Widnes Model Centre]

14 minutes ago, AY Mod said:

 

 My understanding is that rather than being a lost item it was one handed back with the problem being another person with the problem being resolved by the new management.

That about sums it up. My immediate reaction was one of, sorted, at last! Thumbs up to the new management team.

[moawkwrd]

12 minutes ago, spamcan61 said:

This is what has baffled me about the "quirky one off" strategy Hornby have followed. Takes the same amount of limited resources as a "bread and butter" release. But how many people will buy 10 Turbomotives or W1s? Pretty much nobody. Different story for Spamcans, Black Fives, Westerns. Bizarre strategy.

 

I agree with this - certain models would sell all year round if they were good value with enough detail to please most people and some modern features (DCC Ready with prefitted speakers for example). A good shout by another poster to vary running numbers by batch too, as that's a pretty cheap and effective way of increasing choice, as is livery.

[Les1952]

On the topic of models selling out/not selling.  Don't compare with Accurascale, Rapido etc.  They don't make stuff for every model shop to have a bite at.  

 

What we DON'T know is the size of the Bachmann stockpile at Barwell to compare Hornby with......

 

A lot of drums being banged with little knowledge to base the opinions on.

 

Les

 

[McC]

13 minutes ago, Les1952 said:

On the topic of models selling out/not selling.  Don't compare with Accurascale, Rapido etc.  They don't make stuff for every model shop to have a bite at. 

 

 

Hi Les!

We’re certainly open to any model shop that wants to stock us and earn great margins under great terms but we are only five years old and it takes time to build up a bank of repeat toolings. 

[Dunsignalling]

8 hours ago, Les1952 said:

 

On the topic of models selling out/not selling.  Don't compare with Accurascale, Rapido etc.  They don't make stuff for every model shop to have a bite at.  

 

Les

 

 

In recent years, neither has Hornby in far too many cases....

 

The point with the two newcomers is that they invite orders/expressions of interest before ordering stock from the factories. That works irrespective of how many outlets a business serves.

 

Hornby hasn't done that since the last physical model rolled out of Margate, because their ludicrous factory-orders-first, catalogue-second, ask-the-dealers-how-many-they-want-last, business sequence makes it impossible to do so.  Hopefully, in the next few weeks, they'll demonstrate that's done with.

 

John

Edited January 3 by Dunsignalling

[APOLLO]

12 hours ago, moawkwrd said:

 

 certain models would sell all year round if they were good value with enough detail to please most people and some modern features (DCC Ready with prefitted speakers for example). A good shout by another poster to vary running numbers by batch too, as that's a pretty cheap and effective way of increasing choice, as is livery.

 

I have several Hornby Railroad Black 5's and 9F's from several years ago. Good runners and good value back then.

Easy to renumber etc. The Railroad class 40 also.

 

We (well I) would like a similar affordable Black 8. They would sell be the bucket load.

 

Brit15

[Dunsignalling]

13 hours ago, spamcan61 said:

This is what has baffled me about the "quirky one off" strategy Hornby have followed. Takes the same amount of limited resources as a "bread and butter" release. But how many people will buy 10 Turbomotives or W1s? Pretty much nobody. Different story for Spamcans, Black Fives, Westerns. Bizarre strategy.

 

I think that all the quirky one-offs have, at least in part, been intended to counter an expectation at Margate that rising prices might lead to purchases of the "workhorse" classes in lesser multiples. My own spending pattern seems to confirm their fears. 

 

It wasn't a conscious decision, but the last Hornby loco of which I bought more than one was the S15, and the third of those only resulted from deep discounting of the Year 2 surplus. The LNs rarely got down this way in my chosen period, but I did buy one. I long ago vowed to get at least one of everything SR/LSWR to put my money where my mouth is. My (so far) solo air-smoothed MN will be bolstered as and when a  suitable variation reawakens my interest....

 

John

 

 

[The Stationmaster]

On 02/01/2024 at 22:51, Les1952 said:

On the topic of models selling out/not selling.  Don't compare with Accurascale, Rapido etc.  They don't make stuff for every model shop to have a bite at.  

 

What we DON'T know is the size of the Bachmann stockpile at Barwell to compare Hornby with......

 

A lot of drums being banged with little knowledge to base the opinions on.

 

Les

 

Various of my Accurascale puchases come from my local(ish) model shop) - so he definitely stocks their products and. s has done for some time.  In fact both of the shops I use regularly stock Accurascale items (and Rapido).

 

Of course we know the size of Bachmann's stock holding but, as with Hornby, we don't know the numbers for what has sat their for X number of years.  However Bachmann used to, and may still?, have an annual sell off of unsold and slow moving stock  which they circulated the details of to all their retailers.

 

At year end 31 December 2022 Bachmann's value of stock in hand was £10,984,000 - up 5% on the previous year end.  At year end 31 March 2023, so the almost direct equivalent, Hornby's year end inventory (aka value of stock on hand) was £21,282,000 - an increase of £4.8 million on their previous year end figure.  According to Hornby's statements at the time  the major part of that ncrease was due to over estimating sales in the pre- Christmas resulting in stock bought on from factories remaining unsold..

 

But when it comes to models selling out, or not selling out, what we don't is how many were made;  5% unsold of a run of 1,000 is very different from 5% unsold of a run of 10,000,.    A sell out of 1,000 whatevers made  is also very different from, say, Accurascale's reported production (or is it sales?  McC will no doubt correct me, please and he has so I've added 10,000) of 8,000 18,000 Class 37s.  

Edited January 4 by The Stationmaster

[McC]

1 hour ago, The Stationmaster said:

Accurascale's reported production (or is it sales?  McC will no doubt correct me, please) of 8,000 Class 37s.  

 

Delivered 37’s in run 1 was 18,000 units (so only 10k out ;) )

 

Run 2 will ship in about 8 weeks time. 

[Legend]

On 01/01/2024 at 13:27, BachelorBoy said:

 

Do you think Hornby is still a "must have" brand for shops (general or specialist) that sell model railways in the way that supermarkets feel they have to stock Heinz and Coca-Cola?

 

 

 

 

Rails didn’t and seemed to survive quite happily . I know they now stock Hornby again . In the same way Hattons seem to be doing quite well without Bachmann 

[PeterStiles]

I've worked out Hornby's planning strategy!

I've been reading the 1960s Railway Modellers and people keep suggesting locos to be made RTR... Locos like the W1 and the Locomotive, (someone was also begging for a Double Fairly, but obviously someone else beat Hornby to it).

 

So, if you Really want that One-Of-A-Kind, you only have to wait 60 years!

[Ravenser]

While Hornby have been doing a number of "one-offs" , particularly in recent years, so has everyone else....

 

Rapido's Stirling Single and Met No 1 are exotics that very very few will buy two of . The Jones Goods is almost as exotic. KR Models produce almost nothing else..  Heljan's Worsborough Garrett looks "courageous" to me ,  and their ES1 electric is not going to be a regular seller.  The Ivatt Bo-Bo 10800 is at least moderately easy to justify on your post war branchline layout but again you'll only buy one. Bachmann have largely steered clear (could they successfully re-run the Ivatt Co-Cos now???), though LNWR Precedents are a bit exotic, but even Accurascale have chipped in with the Class 89.  (Buckjumpers are a very much better commercial prospect)

 

I tend to agree with those saying that this sort of thing has only a limited future, but it's not a Hornby issue, it's general across the whole of OO RTR . To me it really does signal that we are running out of road in terms of new tooling, and the medium term  future for OO RTR is going to be largely about re-runs from existing tooling.

 

It seems to take anywhere from 18 months to 3 years from actual release before it becomes obvious that a given model is hanging around and didn't sell very well. Therefore assurances that everything is totally fine and this is proved because X have just announced an ABC in 4mm are wide of the mark. We will only have a decent idea whether the market  took X's ABC about 2 years after it is finally released. I do think that some of these exotics are going to find the market isn't quite there

Edited January 4 by Ravenser

[Dunsignalling]

10 hours ago, Ravenser said:

While Hornby have been doing a number of "one-offs" , particularly in recent years, so has everyone else....

 

Rapido's Stirling Single and Met No 1 are exotics that very very few will buy two of . The Jones Goods is almost as exotic. KR Models produce almost nothing else..  Heljan's Worsborough Garrett looks "courageous" to me ,  and their ES1 electric is not going to be a regular seller.  The Ivatt Bo-Bo 10800 is at least moderately easy to justify on your post war branchline layout but again you'll only buy one. Bachmann have largely steered clear (could they successfully re-run the Ivatt Co-Cos now???), though LNWR Precedents are a bit exotic, but even Accurascale have chipped in with the Class 89.  (Buckjumpers are a very much better commercial prospect)

 

I tend to agree with those saying that this sort of thing has only a limited future, but it's not a Hornby issue, it's general across the whole of OO RTR . To me it really does signal that we are running out of road in terms of new tooling, and the medium term  future for OO RTR is going to be largely about re-runs from existing tooling.

 

It seems to take anywhere from 18 months to 3 years from actual release before it becomes obvious that a given model is hanging around and didn't sell very well. Therefore assurances that everything is totally fine and this is proved because X have just announced an ABC in 4mm are wide of the mark. We will only have a decent idea whether the market  took X's ABC about 2 years after it is finally released. I do think that some of these exotics are going to find the market isn't quite there

One word: Collectors.

 

Hornby tend not to talk about them, but they probably contribute a greater proportion of their turnover than do "modellers". The latter will logically buy only the versions of the "exotics" that fit self-imposed frameworks of time and place; collectors' only purchasing limit is the number of variations produced. 

 

I have no doubt whatever that there are people out there who (for instance) have bought/ordered every iteration of the LNER "Hush-hush" loco, or who own an example of every version of "Flying Scotsman" ever produced (now getting up around the fifty mark, AIUI). 

 

Even "extreme collectors", with the wealth to buy and the space to accommodate "one of everything", may be more numerous  than we normal mortals imagine. They will naturally not draw attention to their "stashes" for security reasons, but various retailers have told me over the years that they supply such individuals.

 

John

 

 

Edited January 5 by Dunsignalling