End of Warley National Show - but now it's not the end of a show at the NEC.

[woodenhead]

@ikcdab  Please don't turn this into a 'It's WMRC's fault we have no Warley in 2024'

 

Let's remember that Warley like all other exhibitions run by individual clubs is a voluntary thing, they did it because they wanted to not because they had to.  If it was the latter then you would plan for succession, but when it is the former then they have the choice at any time to decide enough and walk away. 

 

They owe no-one an explanation, they owe no one to keep doing this thing.

 

They set a standard, kept that standard and it's for other's now to emulate if the model railway community truly wants 90 model exhibitions.

[Michael Hodgson]

27 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

The demographic issue is not a matter of existential threat, and won't become one.

 

The thing about pensioners is that we have more time on our hands to follow our hobbies than those who still have to keep their noses to the grindstone to earn a living.  Whilst it is said that the older generation are better off these days than some previous generations, most of us have lower income than when we were working, albeit offset to some extent by not having to pay for a season ticket to work any more.  We also remember railways when they were rather different from the current scene, whereas earlier periods are merely "history" to the youngsters.  As far as the trade are concerned, all that must have some impact on how many of what models they will be able to sell to whom, and how much different segments of the market are prepared to spend.

[ruggedpeak]

34 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

The demographic issue is not a matter of existential threat, and won't become one.

 

However, the hobby is currently dominated by the largest single generation our country has seen. As that factor lessens, the pool of potential replacements within each of the  succeeding generations is smaller. Admittedly, recruitment happens simultaneously over multiple generations, but that only spreads the arithmetical problem over a longer period; a damping effect, if you will.

 

The baby-boomer generation were the train-spotters and owners of Tri-ang and Hornby Dublo train sets in the 1950s/'60s; and railways played a greater part in their lives than most since.

 

The challenge in maintaining numerical participation in the hobby is thus to attract a higher percentage from less numerous generations of people, for most of whom, railways have been less influential in their lives.

 

Not impossible, but anything but easy, I'd suggest; though mid-life memories of watching Thomas The Tank Engine on children's TV may yet come to the rescue....

 

John

 

Fully agree, and noting that changes to the railway also make it harder. EMU's, that are increasingly most people's experience of the real railway, do not evoke the senses or interest in the way a steam or diesel do. Youtube is full of 37 thrash videos but not so many Class 90 ones.

 

As we've seen various manufacturers are trying to engage with the screen/digital generations, and the hobby may have to change to reflect this and find other 'hooks' to attract people. The railway was, rightly or wrongly, an adventure for youngsters of many generations. Spotting, hanging out of windows, slam door stock, big engines etc etc. But modern safety and operational matters make it a much more sterile experience (unless you are in certain franchise areas.....!!). Even a depot open day is sterile compared to the ones I went to as a teenager, mostly look at things from a distance rather than clamber over them. Resolvable but perhaps different approaches.

[TEAMYAKIMA]

1 hour ago, Dunsignalling said:

The baby-boomer generation were the train-spotters and owners of Tri-ang and Hornby Dublo train sets in the 1950s/'60s; and railways played a greater part in their lives than most since.

 

The challenge in maintaining numerical participation in the hobby is thus to attract a higher percentage from less numerous generations of people, for most of whom, railways have been less influential in their lives.

 

Yes, that is the challenge. For the last 10/20/30 years we have tended to rely on slightly elderly people returning to the hobby having left it at 14-18. The trouble is that there are far fewer of that target age group (i.e. 50-60) who were ever in the hobby 30 to 40 years ago and so if we are to keep up numbers in the hobby we need to attract people with no 'background' in the hobby.

 

 

[Chris M]

1 hour ago, ikcdab said:

As I said, it's not easy, but if you fail to succession plan then your event dies. I agree that you need to have the people ready to step up.  But you can't just wait for them to turn up or to offer themselves. You need to create the environment in which people want to help out. 

I have no connection with Warley except as a very happy visitor over many years and I have no idea at all what attempt they made to recruit new volunteers .  Bearing in mind the thousands who attend, it doesn't seem beyond the wit of man to recruit a small number of them (1 or 2 a year) to add to the team. All I know is that I have never seen any kind of advert at the show or in the show leadup asking for people to come forward to help organise it.

So far as I am aware there has always been a Warley club stand at the NEC show where Warley club members would speak enthusiastically about the club and encourage people to join. Being a member of Warley club was, and still is, a prerequisite to being a member of the exhibition management team. That seems quite reasonable. I don’t think we should be too concerned about things. After 30 years at the top Warley club decided to call it a day on their NEC and exhibition. I fully expect the place will be taken by another, probably lesser, exhibition.

 

Warley club continues. I would say it is highly likely that there will be another set of Warley exhibitions on a smaller scale in the years to come.

 

Meanwhile the club is doing other things. The free open days are always nice and the next one is on  February 18th. New next month is the start of our free hands on training sessions at the club rooms. We have 20 non members keenly signed up and ready for this to happen. So plenty happening and plenty being done for the hobby. Let’s be happy, one change in direction from

one club doesn’t mean we are all doomed.

[Revolution Ben]

6 hours ago, ruggedpeak said:

EMU's, that are increasingly most people's experience of the real railway, do not evoke the senses or interest in the way a steam or diesel do. Youtube is full of 37 thrash videos but not so many Class 90 ones.

 

Hi there,

 

But this is your view.   I find a 313 or 321 EMU far more interesting than, say, a green tank engine and a couple of old coaches.

 

And to be 'evocative' something has to trigger a memory; the green tank engine and old coaches may trigger memories for some but with the march of time it is increasingly blue DMUs or, as you say, 37s that trigger those happy childhood memories; and in another 10 or 20 years time it will be Class 321s or Pendolinos.

 

This is why preserved railways are so important - they enable today's children to harbour happy memories of the trains of yesteryear.

 

cheers

 

Ben A.

 

 

Edited January 15 by Revolution Ben

[Barry O]

4 hours ago, ikcdab said:

As I said, it's not easy, but if you fail to succession plan then your event dies. I agree that you need to have the people ready to step up.  But you can't just wait for them to turn up or to offer themselves. You need to create the environment in which people want to help out. 

I have no connection with Warley except as a very happy visitor over many years and I have no idea at all what attempt they made to recruit new volunteers .  Bearing in mind the thousands who attend, it doesn't seem beyond the wit of man to recruit a small number of them (1 or 2 a year) to add to the team. All I know is that I have never seen any kind of advert at the show or in the show leadup asking for people to come forward to help organise it.

as if the team haven't been trying to do this. Succession planning has in fact, been in place over the years .. unfortunately the well of enthusiastic people has run dry.. as other have said some people have nether the time of inclination to take on more responsibilities away from work..and it isn't just a model railway thing.. Sports clubs, charities, preservation societies you name it .. all are short of volunteers.. and its the same elsewhere (for example in Oz and NZ).

 

The organisers have, between them a lot of successful business experience.. of course, I tke it you are part of the Committee/events Commitee at your local club? 

 

Baz

[Dunsignalling]

3 hours ago, TEAMYAKIMA said:

 

Yes, that is the challenge. For the last 10/20/30 years we have tended to rely on slightly elderly people returning to the hobby having left it at 14-18. The trouble is that there are far fewer of that target age group (i.e. 50-60) who were ever in the hobby 30 to 40 years ago and so if we are to keep up numbers in the hobby we need to attract people with no 'background' in the hobby.

 

 

 

But, at a practical level, other than for those of us who make an income from the hobby, how much of a threat to its future does a gradual numerical decline really present?

 

Looking forward, once the baby-boomer factor works its way out of the equation, the population is distributed much more evenly between subsequent generations.

 

Therefore, if a constant x% of any given population tends to "self recruit" into the hobby, and the success rate of those within to attract others also remains fairly level, participation should simply stabilise at a new, albeit lower, level.

 

OK, clubs may need to merge to remain a viable size and there will be some impact on the industry and retailers, but such adjustments as become necessary will also do so gradually, and should be manageable within the normal ebb and flow of business.

 

Should we perhaps take heed of the wise words on the front of the Hitch-Hiker's Guide to the Galaxy?

 

DON'T PANIC!

Edited January 15 by Dunsignalling

[melmerby]

4 hours ago, Revolution Ben said:

 

Hi there,

 

But this is your view.   I find a 313 or 321 EMU far more interesting than, say, a green tank engine and a couple of old coaches.

 

And to be 'evocative' something has to trigger a memory; the green tank engine and old coaches may trigger memories for some but with the march of time it is increasingly blue DMUs or, as you say, 37s that trigger those happy childhood memories; and in another 10 or 20 years time it will be Class 321s or Pendolinos.

 

This is why preserved railways are so important - it enables today's children to harbour happy memories of the trains of yesteryear.

 

cheers

 

Ben A.

 

 

Yes.

It's what piqued your interest when you were younger.

Mine started in the days of steam before even the first class 1xx DMUs came on the scene and originally lasted until the mid 60s, by which time the DMUs & EMUs were well establised

I almost completely (but not quite) lost interest in railways, real or model and was mainly into music or slotcar.

My re-lit interest started in the, 90s so maybe a 30 year gap, during which I completely missed the end of steam and could only see the, boring to me, everything coporate blue era.

I did buy a few models in the 70s, for when I might have wanted another layout (Airfix & Mainline) and really started again in the 2000s

Edited January 15 by melmerby

[ikcdab]

2 hours ago, Barry O said:

as if the team haven't been trying to do this. Succession planning has in fact, been in place over the years .. unfortunately the well of enthusiastic people has run dry.. as other have said some people have nether the time of inclination to take on more responsibilities away from work..and it isn't just a model railway thing.. Sports clubs, charities, preservation societies you name it .. all are short of volunteers.. and its the same elsewhere (for example in Oz and NZ).

 

The organisers have, between them a lot of successful business experience.. of course, I tke it you are part of the Committee/events Commitee at your local club? 

 

Baz

Hi Baz, point taken. As i said in my other post, I am on the organising committee of a regional (non-railway) annual show. This costs us getting on for £300K to stage and we barely cover our costs and made a loss this year. It is staggeringly difficult today when all the costs have risen c25% and you can't jack up the ticket price to cover the costs or you drive away visitors. So i very much appreciate how hard it is and I admire the Warley club for keeping it going for so long.

[jmg123]

7 hours ago, ruggedpeak said:

I saw the Kato stand at the last two Warley shows, with their educational material to encourage modelling.

 

I enjoyed the little 'island' models this year by various modelling businesses but did wonder why the base kit were not readily available. It is the sort of small spontaneous purchase that would work at the show and is a great and simple form of modular layout. Something that could be sold/publicised in advance and people could bring in and connect up at the show.

I got my kato diorama sets Sunday afternoon from the Gaugemaster stand next door, but it did have to search them out. Hearteningly though, served in front of me in the queue was a mother purchasing her daughter a kato starter set as her first model railway, having seen the kato circus.

 

I know from the Lichfield show earlier in the year, my 5 year old’s 2nd favourite model was the drive Thomas for a £1.

 

 

[F-UnitMad]

8 hours ago, ruggedpeak said:

Youtube is full of 37 thrash videos but not so many Class 90 ones.

As Class 90s are Electric locos, I should hope not!!! 🤔🙄😁😁

[SHMD]

Just now, F-UnitMad said:

As Class 90s are Electric locos, I should hope not!!! 🤔🙄😁😁

 

Class 84s!

 

 

Kev.

 

[Ravenser]

10 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

......I began to suspect some time ago that the apparent rude health of the r-t-r sector of the industry/hobby may be rooted in relatively few people spending an awful lot of money whilst most have become much more circumspect. 

 

This is evident among my own contacts, though it should be borne in mind that most of us already own more models than is perhaps decent. A few are still spending freely; around half (including me) seem to be averaging roughly what we've always averaged (though I'm personally 15-20% down on pre-pandemic spending). and are acquiring new stock at a slower rate in consequence. More worrying, I think, is that more than I expected are actually spending considerably less in cash terms than before and will only open their wallets for items they have "always longed for". One has even thrown up his hands, declared that the world has gone mad, flogged all his models and become an armchair non-modeller!  .....

 

 

 

 

We can perhaps quantify that using Andy's survey last year: 2023 modeller survey

 

The highest 2 categories for "how many locos/units do you have" are 50-100 (  , and 100+ (19.8%). Together they amount to 41.6% of respondents

 

Now what feels like a wakeup call to me is that counting kitbuilt trams/LRV's , I'd be in the mid 50s - so at the bottom end of the second highest group. (That excludes unbuilt kits)  But I've hardly bought any new RTR in recent years. And I've never been one of the big spenders. 15 years ago I was picking up a discounted multiple unit here , a cheap loco off the Bachmann stand there , when such things cost £50 -£75 - and that was the peak of my spending. Those people declaring in threads "I was going to have 7 of these Class XYZs but having seen this I'm only having 2.." (those were the days) have always left me bemused. OK, I've been picking things up for 40 years and I've almost never sold stuff on, but still...

 

I'm left thinking that the folk who dominate RTR discussions and seem to be spending  4 figure sums on new RTR each year can't be that much more than 25% of the hobby. Perhaps the "80:20 rule" is in play - 20% of modellers buy 80% of the new RTR??

 

But though I'm pretty marginal in terms of the RTR manufacturers' market, I'm very much actively involved in the hobby. I've two moderate sized layouts and am building a third, I belong to 4 scale/special interest societies, pre pandemic I was going to 9 shows (and a couple of other events) a year. I was helping  on a society stand at 3 shows regularly . 

 

A slump in spending on new RTR might be very painful for the manufacturers indeed. But it looks as if maybe 3/4s of the hobby isn't really involved in the "new RTR circus". Indirectly we benefit from the cornucopia, but new production RTR won't stop being available - even if it consisted very largely of reruns, even if the unit volume dropped sharply, even if it came from fewer players via fewer shops. It would not be good, of course, but the hobby would go on, fairly normally, for most. 

 

However - the 3 shows where I regularly helped with a society stand were Stevenage, Peterborough and Warley . All 3 have now disappeared . If I look at alternative shows for me to go to  (or the society to attend) - I can't think of a single 2 day show left in East Anglia. 20 years ago you had Ipswich, Colchester, Southend, Southwold - and probably one or two more I never got to. All gone now. 

 

The E Midlands isn't much better. The two  Lincoln at Newark events - gone. According to this month's RM , Lincoln club are putting on a show with 7 layouts in a village hall at Fiskerton. Nottingham show, which was said to be not far behind the big shows - gone . I gather the Nottingham club, like the Lincoln club are doing a small local show.. The GCR event - gone. The St Neots show that started at the anuimal shelter south of Huntingdon and moved to Kettering - gone. Apparently the St Neots club are doing a little local show in St Neots

 

As far as I can see the only sizeable 2 day show left in eastern England  between the M25 and the Humber is Spalding 

 

And the small local shows? The one in the town is no more - the club have retreated to an event at the preservation site where they have club rooms . 3 layouts and 2 traders in the goods shed, four or five more in the large club rooms, plus the club permanent layouts. Chelmsford has contracted from 15-18 layouts in a school to 9-12 layouts in the football club with 2 traders and a club second hand stall. Shenfield seemed to be about 10-15% smaller when I went .  I'm not sure if Colchester show is still going

 

What's disquieting is that there are still plenty of people going to shows. The gates are ok, some shows are crowded. The hobby may even be somewhat bigger than in 2019.  But there's been a drastic contraction in the shows available to visit - and 2 years after "normal service" resumed  with Model Rail Scotland 2022 we are still contracting and losing major shows ...

 

The only shows I can think of which are stepping up a gear are Manchester, Chatham, and Thornbury. Not much, 2 years into "recovery"

 

Some pruning may have been healthy. I think "the exhibition circuit" was over-extended in 2019. But this goes far beyond that. Given the extent to which the hobby in Britain pre-pandemic centred on exhibition layouts and the exhibition circuit , such a sharp contraction risks real dislocation and some damage to the hobby.

 

What chances of building an exhibition layout now? Acquaintences with such layouts say the bookings post-pandemic are a fraction of what they were. Never mind the finances - where does this leave clubs , whose major activities pre-pandemic were staging exhibitions and building exhibition layouts? And getting involved with a club layout was the major alternative available if you didn't have space to build one at home . Losing that opportunity could be damaging for the hobby

 

That';s why losing Warley comes as a big blow. Hattons is arguably a one-off. The end of Warley isn't. There are plenty of modellers out there, but the structure of the hobby is creaking

[Chris M]

11 hours ago, ikcdab said:

This costs us getting on for £300K to stage and we barely cover our costs and made a loss this year. 

Maybe you should have taken a long hard look at all the indicators and and pulled the show before making a loss.

[009 micro modeller]

8 hours ago, Ravenser said:

Now what feels like a wakeup call to me is that counting kitbuilt trams/LRV's , I'd be in the mid 50s - so at the bottom end of the second highest group. (That excludes unbuilt kits)  But I've hardly bought any new RTR in recent years. And I've never been one of the big spenders. 15 years ago I was picking up a discounted multiple unit here , a cheap loco off the Bachmann stand there , when such things cost £50 -£75 - and that was the peak of my spending. Those people declaring in threads "I was going to have 7 of these Class XYZs but having seen this I'm only having 2.."

That’s the thing - do I count unbuilt kits, all the random old stuff and things that could be considered ‘toys’ rather than proper models (not all of which is in my main scale/gauge anyway) and the stored Kato chassis and secondhand N gauge locos that are only there to provide chassis for future 009 projects anyway as ‘locos’? If I did I’d have a very high number, but if I just counted my main ‘service fleet’ it’s probably around 10 or maybe even less.

[009 micro modeller]

9 hours ago, Ravenser said:

The St Neots show that started at the anuimal shelter south of Huntingdon and moved to Kettering - gone.

In the Kettering area I think the Kettering and District show is still going, although that’s a smaller one. Although a very nice show and one I’ve exhibited at a couple of times.

 

9 hours ago, Ravenser said:

A slump in spending on new RTR might be very painful for the manufacturers indeed. But it looks as if maybe 3/4s of the hobby isn't really involved in the "new RTR circus".

Probably a bit off topic but I wonder what the different reasons are for this non-involvement? In my case it would be because, being an 009 modeller, RTR generally doesn’t provide what I need, and to some extent is too expensive so I would buy second hand anyway (though previously I’ve bought a few new Minitrains locos, so that’s a more niche form of new RTR circus in 009). For others affordability of new stuff will be a bigger issue and for somebody working in, say, S scale, new ready to run will probably be completely irrelevant to their hobby. I know other people (usually older, obviously) who’ve accumulated what they need in terms of rolling stock over a long period of time and are only just now building the layout for it, so they’re not really buying new RTR in large quantities either. But it would be interesting to survey the reasons for non-involvement with new RTR.

[ruggedpeak]

10 hours ago, F-UnitMad said:

As Class 90s are Electric locos, I should hope not!!! 🤔🙄😁😁

Clearly the point I was trying to make completely failed to hit the mark given the responses...! 🙄

 

[MarkSG]

2 hours ago, Chris M said:

Maybe you should have taken a long hard look at all the indicators and and pulled the show before making a loss.

 

That's a rather unfair comment. The context of the post (which you selectively quoted) made it clear that it's a different field to ours. So the same economics don't necessarily apply. Most model railway exhibitions are run by clubs, who need the show to turn a profit as it's an important way of financially supporting the club for the rest of the year. But there are other sectors where it's acceptable for a show to make a loss, because the ancillary benefits to the community of having the show go ahead justify the need to subsidise it. 

[ruggedpeak]

3 hours ago, Chris M said:

Maybe you should have taken a long hard look at all the indicators and and pulled the show before making a loss.

Really? 🙄

[ELTEL]

10 hours ago, Ravenser said:

 

 

We can perhaps quantify that using Andy's survey last year: 2023 modeller survey

 

The highest 2 categories for "how many locos/units do you have" are 50-100 (  , and 100+ (19.8%). Together they amount to 41.6% of respondents

 

Now what feels like a wakeup call to me is that counting kitbuilt trams/LRV's , I'd be in the mid 50s - so at the bottom end of the second highest group. (That excludes unbuilt kits)  But I've hardly bought any new RTR in recent years. And I've never been one of the big spenders. 15 years ago I was picking up a discounted multiple unit here , a cheap loco off the Bachmann stand there , when such things cost £50 -£75 - and that was the peak of my spending. Those people declaring in threads "I was going to have 7 of these Class XYZs but having seen this I'm only having 2.." (those were the days) have always left me bemused. OK, I've been picking things up for 40 years and I've almost never sold stuff on, but still...

 

I'm left thinking that the folk who dominate RTR discussions and seem to be spending  4 figure sums on new RTR each year can't be that much more than 25% of the hobby. Perhaps the "80:20 rule" is in play - 20% of modellers buy 80% of the new RTR??

 

But though I'm pretty marginal in terms of the RTR manufacturers' market, I'm very much actively involved in the hobby. I've two moderate sized layouts and am building a third, I belong to 4 scale/special interest societies, pre pandemic I was going to 9 shows (and a couple of other events) a year. I was helping  on a society stand at 3 shows regularly . 

 

A slump in spending on new RTR might be very painful for the manufacturers indeed. But it looks as if maybe 3/4s of the hobby isn't really involved in the "new RTR circus". Indirectly we benefit from the cornucopia, but new production RTR won't stop being available - even if it consisted very largely of reruns, even if the unit volume dropped sharply, even if it came from fewer players via fewer shops. It would not be good, of course, but the hobby would go on, fairly normally, for most. 

 

However - the 3 shows where I regularly helped with a society stand were Stevenage, Peterborough and Warley . All 3 have now disappeared . If I look at alternative shows for me to go to  (or the society to attend) - I can't think of a single 2 day show left in East Anglia. 20 years ago you had Ipswich, Colchester, Southend, Southwold - and probably one or two more I never got to. All gone now. 

 

The E Midlands isn't much better. The two  Lincoln at Newark events - gone. According to this month's RM , Lincoln club are putting on a show with 7 layouts in a village hall at Fiskerton. Nottingham show, which was said to be not far behind the big shows - gone . I gather the Nottingham club, like the Lincoln club are doing a small local show.. The GCR event - gone. The St Neots show that started at the anuimal shelter south of Huntingdon and moved to Kettering - gone. Apparently the St Neots club are doing a little local show in St Neots

 

As far as I can see the only sizeable 2 day show left in eastern England  between the M25 and the Humber is Spalding 

 

And the small local shows? The one in the town is no more - the club have retreated to an event at the preservation site where they have club rooms . 3 layouts and 2 traders in the goods shed, four or five more in the large club rooms, plus the club permanent layouts. Chelmsford has contracted from 15-18 layouts in a school to 9-12 layouts in the football club with 2 traders and a club second hand stall. Shenfield seemed to be about 10-15% smaller when I went .  I'm not sure if Colchester show is still going

 

What's disquieting is that there are still plenty of people going to shows. The gates are ok, some shows are crowded. The hobby may even be somewhat bigger than in 2019.  But there's been a drastic contraction in the shows available to visit - and 2 years after "normal service" resumed  with Model Rail Scotland 2022 we are still contracting and losing major shows ...

 

The only shows I can think of which are stepping up a gear are Manchester, Chatham, and Thornbury. Not much, 2 years into "recovery"

 

Some pruning may have been healthy. I think "the exhibition circuit" was over-extended in 2019. But this goes far beyond that. Given the extent to which the hobby in Britain pre-pandemic centred on exhibition layouts and the exhibition circuit , such a sharp contraction risks real dislocation and some damage to the hobby.

 

What chances of building an exhibition layout now? Acquaintences with such layouts say the bookings post-pandemic are a fraction of what they were. Never mind the finances - where does this leave clubs , whose major activities pre-pandemic were staging exhibitions and building exhibition layouts? And getting involved with a club layout was the major alternative available if you didn't have space to build one at home . Losing that opportunity could be damaging for the hobby

 

That';s why losing Warley comes as a big blow. Hattons is arguably a one-off. The end of Warley isn't. There are plenty of modellers out there, but the structure of the hobby is creaking

***The only shows I can think of which are stepping up a gear are Manchester, Chatham, and Thornbury. Not much, 2 years into "recovery"***

 

May I please correct you as Stafford has expanded and now has almost twice the floor spaced, more layouts, quality traders and demonstrators than prior to COVID 

 

We are last weekend in September, Free car parking for 2500 vehicles, Free bus service from Stafford Station on both Saturday & Sunday.

 

Please have look at the comments placed on RMWEB after last year’s exhibition 

 

Full details of the exhibition will be here on RMEB first in the next few weeks.

 

Terry 

[Chris M]

48 minutes ago, MarkSG said:

 

That's a rather unfair comment. The context of the post (which you selectively quoted) made it clear that it's a different field to ours. So the same economics don't necessarily apply. Most model railway exhibitions are run by clubs, who need the show to turn a profit as it's an important way of financially supporting the club for the rest of the year. But there are other sectors where it's acceptable for a show to make a loss, because the ancillary benefits to the community of having the show go ahead justify the need to subsidise it. 

Apologies for sounding abrupt, I didn’t mean to.

[AY Mod]

10 hours ago, Ravenser said:

the structure of the hobby is creaking

 

More made up nonsense from you - you may see yourself in the mirror here - https://www.rmweb.co.uk/forums/topic/183840-accentuate-the-negative-whos-trying-to-kill-the-hobby/

 

[MarkSG]

10 hours ago, Ravenser said:

The only shows I can think of which are stepping up a gear are Manchester, Chatham, and Thornbury. Not much, 2 years into "recovery"

 

Everything is still in recovery mode. Almost across the board, every part of the leisure sector hasn't yet returned to pre-Covid levels. There are all sorts of reasons for that, including the economic shocks of the past couple of years which have dented recovery as well as the simple fact that a lot of organisations and businesses simply didn't survive lockdown at all and their replacements haven't yet got into their stride. 

 

In any normal year, the number of organisations in any sector closing will be broadly balanced by those opening. Obviously, if it's a declining market then the new ones will be fewer than the ones they replace, while in an expanding market there will be more new ones than those they replace. But, still, it tends to be a fairly clear trend line either way.

 

Covid massively disrupted that. Significantly more organisations closed during the pandemic than normal, despite the assistance of the furlough scheme. And the pandemic also inhibited new startups. So we're only just beginning to see a return to normal levels of new businesses, events, etc. And it typically takes around five years for a new organisation, either commercial or non-commercial, to become established and here to stay.

 

So it's going to be at least five years from the end of lockdown, and probably more, before we will have a reliable indication of where the market is going. We may be in a long term decline, or we may not be. We simply have no way of knowing, yet. 

 

Quote

That';s why losing Warley comes as a big blow. Hattons is arguably a one-off. The end of Warley isn't. There are plenty of modellers out there, but the structure of the hobby is creaking

 

I wonder what people would have said, had RMweb existed back then, when the National Model Railway Exhibition in Westminster Central Hall closed after more than half a century of operation. 

[Dunsignalling]

1 hour ago, 009 micro modeller said:

In the Kettering area I think the Kettering and District show is still going, although that’s a smaller one. Although a very nice show and one I’ve exhibited at a couple of times.

 

Probably a bit off topic but I wonder what the different reasons are for this non-involvement? In my case it would be because, being an 009 modeller, RTR generally doesn’t provide what I need, and to some extent is too expensive so I would buy second hand anyway (though previously I’ve bought a few new Minitrains locos, so that’s a more niche form of new RTR circus in 009). For others affordability of new stuff will be a bigger issue and for somebody working in, say, S scale, new ready to run will probably be completely irrelevant to their hobby.

 

I know other people (usually older, obviously) who’ve accumulated what they need in terms of rolling stock over a long period of time and are only just now building the layout for it, so they’re not really buying new RTR in large quantities either. But it would be interesting to survey the reasons for non-involvement with new RTR.

I fall into the last category, and my spend has definitely dropped off over the past three or four years. 

 

However, much of that has been a lack of locos of interest coming from Hornby. The last one I bought more than one of was the S15, I've had one each of the LN and Air-smoothed MN, a couple of industrials and a few coaches and that's it. I presume it's been rather different  for the ECML devotees!

 

All that said, if/when Hornby do more variations on the MN, they'll be on the shopping list.  

 

Lately Rapido (mainly wagons) have been attracting the lion's share of my cash and pre-orders, followed by Accurascale (a Manor, Siphons and the forthcoming SR Banana vans). I already have more diesels than I shall ever use, and have thinned them out, though I did plan to buy at least one of Rapido's 04s. 

 

I have adjusted to rising prices by an (almost) total cessation of "Rule 1" purchases. 

 

Among acquaintances with similar interests, I still seem to be regarded as one of the bigger spenders, though.

 

John

Edited January 16 by Dunsignalling