Bachmann 2015/16 Speculation ... or Divination 101 as it is known on the Hogwarts Express

[Ian Hargrave]

When the Blue Pullman was released,Bachmann made it unambiguously clear that production would not be repeated.I am unsure of what you mean by the cessation of limited edition commissions,when we have Kernow's Thumpers,the Model Rail D11 'Marne' and Locomotion's C1. The 64XX Pannier and E4 tanks are imminent.What reason is there to speculate on the shrinkage of further production ?

The spectre of price hikes has raised its head again. I thought we'd worked exhaustively through that last year, It seems not. Bachmann's pricing is in line with all the other manufacturers,including Hornby.

Hornby's "avalanche" ( and thank heavens for it ) is a recent phenomenon. I feel no "negative vibes ",real or imagined,from Barwell. Let's rejoice at what's to come from all our manufacturers.

 

It's nice to have a supply of sweeties on tap. Occasionally,it's better to wait for them.

[shunny]

I think the problem with units more than 2 cars long is the price puts of the general I buy and run what I like part of the market due to price. If a new class 101 costs £150 at rrp the price of a 4 car unit will be near £225-250 mark.

Modellers who model the area of operation will still often pay the money but it has to have a huge appeal to make it sell enough. If we get anymore units announced I suspect they will be 2 car such as a new 156.

[coachmann]

Going of what I have just read, I don't get the logic. A 2-car DMU is acceptable price-wise but a 3-car is too expensive at around £150.00? Such thinking could put manufacturers off when the steam equivalent of a DMU is a loco and two coaches costing around £160.00, and it has never put modellers off. 

[newbryford]

Going of what I have just read, I don't get the logic. A 2-car DMU is acceptable price-wise but a 3-car is too expensive at around £150.00? Such thinking could put manufacturers off when the steam equivalent of a DMU is a loco and two coaches costing around £160.00, and it has never put modellers off. 

 

But the loco and coaches could be bought as separate items over a period of time. The 3-car DMU has to be bought in one hit.

 

Cheers,

Mick

[James Makin]

Honestly can't believe we're at the stage of another Bachmann announcement, where has the time gone! Like others have said, I'm not fussed on what's announced as it's so many years away and my only purchases these days are heavily discounted old stock at the larger shows, will repaint and bodge anything to represent what I'm looking for rather than wait for a livery variation to come around!

 

What I'd really value though is Bachmann expanding their range of cheap OO cars, similar to the pack of Minis, some common cars along the lines of Ford Focus, Vauxhall Astra, Honda Civic and the like, be much more useful than a shiny new loco!!

[wombatofludham]

I think the problem with units more than 2 cars long is the price puts of the general I buy and run what I like part of the market due to price. If a new class 101 costs £150 at rrp the price of a 4 car unit will be near £225-250 mark.

Modellers who model the area of operation will still often pay the money but it has to have a huge appeal to make it sell enough. If we get anymore units announced I suspect they will be 2 car such as a new 156.

 

 

Well, if Messrs. Bachmann will produce a Class 323 in Centro-RR, Centro-Yellow door and GMPTE liveries I'll happily give them £600-£650 of my pounds, or more if they make a noise.  If needs be I'll become a gigolo for all the lonely rich old dears round here, I'm, not proud.

[Ozexpatriate]

Going of what I have just read, I don't get the logic. A 2-car DMU is acceptable price-wise but a 3-car is too expensive at around £150.00? Such thinking could put manufacturers off when the steam equivalent of a DMU is a loco and two coaches costing around £160.00, and it has never put modellers off. 

Let's start with what we know:

 

Kader Holdings had issues with local taxes, then with factory labour about a year ago resulting from them closing at least one factory.  They also indefinitely postponed the 'factory tour' that was proposed for Collectors' Club members.   Lead times for products, with coaches (like the SECR Birdcage stock) in particular, are long right now.

 

Now to what we might guess:

 

Presumably they will open a replacement factory. In the meantime, production volume is lessened and it makes sense to prioritize higher profitability items.

 

3 car DMUs will of course sell and they're not "too expensive" for many, but they will naturally sell at a higher price than a 2 car DMU and we could assume that with the evident price sensitivity of many British outline enthusiasts, the total volume of 3 car DMUs sold would be less than 2 car DMUs. Absent issues of detail, the 2 car DMUs cost less and can more easily be accommodated in a constrained production environment requiring (let's say) 75% of the effort to build.

 

Since production is constrained (and I think we know it is right now) perhaps they might prioritize higher profitability per box items (locomotives and shorter DMUs) in the short term until production capacity returns?

 

Is that guess work? Yes it is.

 

When they're ready to hold the factory tour again, I bet they will also be ready to produce longer train formations again.

[Joseph_Pestell]

A lot of two-car DMUs only need tooling for one body. A 3-car DMU will require tooling for at least two body types and most 4-car types need at least three bodywork tools.

 

So the 2-car is even better financially than it seems at first.

[The Stationmaster]

Not so much as Ozexpatriate put it but not much different.  Bachmann closed a factory due to changes in local taxation, however the workers at that factory - or some of them - then staged a long drawn out sit-in which presumably meant stuff such as plant and work in progress could not be taken out of the factory.  Ultimately - with reportedly considerable police involvement - the sit-in was brought to an end and the process of relocating plant and work in progress could begin. (all of this from various news sources in China all of which are in the public domain, Kader's own references to the matter are somewhat more constrained).

 

So presumably at some time during 2014 Kader was at last able to begin the game of catch-up but effectively they had lost a good part of a year by then plus no doubt priorities were being reviewed in any case as they got back into their stride (for example the NRM pre-production models were clearly tooled and made their appearance, no doubt in accordance with contract terms).  Add that to a considerable list of previously announced but not yet released models and delay would seem inevitable plus - presumably - product for Bachmann's UK range is competing internally for factory slots among Kader's products for other markets. But the situation seems very simple to me - stuff will arrive when it gets here and whatever we might say or think will make little difference to that.

 

By way of contrast over the same year Hornby has not only disentangled itself, some product, and the tooling for its models, from Kader but has developed production contracts with numerous other companies (their own report stated, I think, 12) all of whom are no doubt chugging along cheerfully at their own pace - as long as they receive the various 'stage' payments on work in hand.  One result of this is that the UK market can now receive simultaneous new release/re-run models from a number of different sources simultaneously but all in red boxes.  Many of these factories are actively looking for work as they have capacity available and some (many?) of them aren't just producing model railway items for Hornby but for other 'well known' names - some of which might come as a surprise to many.

[jonathan452]

Time for the annual wish list!

 

1) Revised DRS livery 57/3 - Is this not already announced? 57309 'Pride of Crewe'. http://www.ehattons.com/60844/Bachmann_Branchline_32_763_Class_57_3_57309_Pride_of_Crewe_in_DRS_Compass_blue_livery/StockDetail.aspx

2) Northern belle 57/3s!

3) west coast railways 57/3

4) New style lighting 66/4 in DRS

66750 with GBRF 'bug eyes' or the 6674x grey import 66s

Would really like some of the special livery 66/7s like 709/720/718(especially)721

 

And an 87 would be lovely!

I have noted the comments in posts 185 and 187 which as a resume were 'Informative and Useful'. (Seeing that the DRS 57/3's are not due until at least August or September and the DRS/Colas 37's in November/December.)

 

So please only take the below as a wish list.

 

I would second the Class 87 (it has same bogies as the Class 90).

 

A Mk1 (Diagram 73) FO could be a relatively quick win for all those Tornado specials.

 

The Class 47/8 in Virgin Livery ('Pride of Toton' and the like).

 

Hoping that the Class 90 and Mk2f's also eventually appear in Virgin Livery.

 

And to take the realms of fantasy further-:

 

Class 86 (unless Heljan improve their offering).

Class 92.

Mk3a's.

['CHARD]

Well, if Messrs. Bachmann will produce a Class 323 in Centro-RR, Centro-Yellow door and GMPTE liveries I'll happily give them £600-£650 of my pounds, or more if they make a noise.  If needs be I'll become a gigolo for all the lonely rich old dears round here, I'm, not proud.

 

Friendly/ Supportive, not of the Class 323, but of all the lucky laydeeez round your way....  

[jjb1970]

The downs and downs of Hornby over the last few years has tended to obscure the simple fact that things haven't been particularly rosey at some of the other manufacturers either, not just Bachmann but Dapol have been going through a bit of a trough too. My own opinion on model deliveries is that these things arrive when they arrive, I am not really aware of any of the RTR manufacturers that has not had issues with delivery schedules. You can either get mad about that or just take it as being what it is and in the mean time enjoy the fact that there has been a steady stream of nice releases to enjoy. In fact the problem for the UK model market is not that there are not enough releases, the problem is the longer term viability of the sort of releases schedules modellers now seem to take for granted and demand. My own fear is we are heading for a shake down and a correction to a more sustainable model and that when that shake down comes it'll be brutal for the trade. Just as Hornby do appear to have turned a corner and are back on form (if anything, diversifying their production base probably puts them on a much more stronger footing for going forward than before the crash of SK) so I've no doubt Bachmann will rebound. That said, Bachamann face the same inflation pressures as Hornby which will not please many customers. For new release announcements I'd love to see any of:

 

Air smoothed Merchant Navy, as built and the later versions

SR River class tank

new generation Bulleid coaches, including the infamous tavern cars

Class 156

Any of the Electrostar family

Class 86 (yes, I know Heljan did an 86, but it wasn't Heljan's best effort......)

Class 89

Class 120

[Mike Storey]

Me too as there a lots of varieties, however the price of a 4 car unit will almost certainly well over £200 and the market for this units is limited so I doubt it will ever happen.

 

 

 

A lot of people keep saying this and yet....the improved Hornby 4 VEP in Blue Grey, which only arrived in mid December, at around £200,  has apparently completely, sold out everywhere, already (except on Hornby's own website, which is where it is the most expensive). And that is without a single review in any magazine and only brief discussion on this forum (most of which was about the first version, which was bloody awful).

 

So, what happy conclusion can we draw from that?

 

Anyway, as at least 4 people have already said, the Green, Blue and Blue/Grey (and then I guess NSE, de-branded NSE and whatever was done to them after that - departmental?) BR 2 HAP should be on Bachmann's list. They already have the bogies and the mouldings (trailer from the 2H, being run again for Kernow this year, and the driving car from the EPB) which would need only minor mods. What is holding that up?

[Ozexpatriate]

An afterthought on DMUs and EMUs. Bachmann Branch-Line lists the following on the webpage today (hopefully I have transcribed it accurately):

 

2 Car DMU and EMU

Class 101 (no longer available in all blue)

Derby lightweight

Class 108

Class 416

Class 105

Class 150/1 & 150/2

Class 158

Class 171/7

Class 170/5

 

3 Car DMU

Class 108 (no longer available in green)

Class 166 Networker

 

4 Car EMU

Class 350/1 & Class 350/2 Desiro

 

Whether this mix is due to profitability or is representative of prototypes, they do seem to prefer 2 car units, not to the exclusion of others it must be said, but to me it seems that something like an eight car Western Region Blue Pullman is highly unlikely in 2015.

 

A three-car unit like the Class 120 is certainly possible - but I think this year production economics might factor in their announcements.

 

If you asked me who is more likely to do a Class 120, Hornby or Bachmann? I would immediately say Bachmann. Having said that, Hornby still has the 2-BIL, 2-HAL and 5-BEL in their 2015 catalogue along with the Javelin.

 

/wishlisting on

 

I'd like to see someone do an LSWR 3-car EMU someday. It's my top EMU preference but is low on my list (and probably everyone else's too).

 

/wishlisting off

[wombatofludham]

Friendly/ Supportive, not of the Class 323, but of all the lucky laydeeez round your way....  

 

I did wonder...they are quite predatory round here despite being senior.  They must be lacing their Sanatogen with cocaine.

[Swifty11]

I have noted the comments in posts 185 and 187 which as a resume were 'Informative and Useful'. (Seeing that the DRS 57/3's are not due until at least August or September and the DRS/Colas 37's in November/December.)

 .

The revised livery 57/3 was in the latest style example, so the livery worn by 57301/303/306/310 and not the old livery worn by the Virgin hired pool

[Neil]

Anyone mind if I have another stab in the dark? Ok, given that our colonial cousins across the pond are to be blessed with 'Skarloey' to run on 9mm gauge track, I wonder if at last the various tentacles of the Bachmann empire might get their collective sh!t together for long enough for a parallel UK model of Talyllyn to appear? 

[Legend]

Yep I've observed that too. Might be Talyllyn plus a coach or wagon

[eric709]

I personally can't understand why we have never seen an rtr Salmon wagon

Been around since the 1950's and still around today and work(ed) pretty much all over the country so a wide market it would appeal to.

Sure there's a kit, built a few myself, but far more niche products seem to get produced

[Ozexpatriate]

Anyone mind if I have another stab in the dark? Ok, given that our colonial cousins across the pond are to be blessed with 'Skarloey' to run on 9mm gauge track, I wonder if at last the various tentacles of the Bachmann empire might get their collective sh!t together for long enough for a parallel UK model of Talyllyn to appear?

Yep I've observed that too. Might be Talyllyn plus a coach or wagon

Talyllyn is a very shrewd guess I think.

 

(From the Skarloey thread):

... And even if Skarloey isn't a detainled 009 model it will be useful for it's chassis, but I still think it's a less detailed version of an 009 model yet to be annouced on March 2nd along with the rest of the 2015/16 range.

009 is an interesting sub-category.

 

We've seen the Baldwin 4-6-0 announced last year.

Bachmann offers this Baldwin 2-4-2 narrow gauge beauty (Lyn) in G, they could do 009.

And now a very possible Talyllyn.

 

March just got more interesting to me. I wonder when Heljan will show up with the Manning-Wardle they promised?

[GordonC]

Going of what I have just read, I don't get the logic. A 2-car DMU is acceptable price-wise but a 3-car is too expensive at around £150.00? Such thinking could put manufacturers off when the steam equivalent of a DMU is a loco and two coaches costing around £160.00, and it has never put modellers off. 

 

I'd look to buy models that matched the formations I was used to seeing on the prototype, so I'd be happier buying a 3-car Class 120 than a 2 car shortened version for example. That also partially explains why I haven't jumped to buy the 2-car Class 101 since it came out. I'd really prefer one with a middle car too!!!

 

For me, the price is less of a consideration (within reason)

[GordonC]

I personally can't understand why we have never seen an rtr Salmon wagon

Been around since the 1950's and still around today and work(ed) pretty much all over the country so a wide market it would appeal to.

Sure there's a kit, built a few myself, but far more niche products seem to get produced

 

Has that not been announced by Flangeway that they will be producing it in RTR format?

[GordonC]

An afterthought on DMUs and EMUs. Bachmann Branch-Line lists the following on the webpage today (hopefully I have transcribed it accurately):

 

2 Car DMU and EMU

Class 101 (no longer available in all blue)

Derby lightweight

Class 108

Class 416

Class 105

Class 150/1 & 150/2

Class 158

Class 171/7

Class 170/5

 

3 Car DMU

Class 108 (no longer available in green)

Class 166 Networker

 

4 Car EMU

Class 350/1 & Class 350/2 Desiro

 

Whether this mix is due to profitability or is representative of prototypes, they do seem to prefer 2 car units, not to the exclusion of others it must be said, but to me it seems that something like an eight car Western Region Blue Pullman is highly unlikely in 2015.

 

A three-car unit like the Class 120 is certainly possible - but I think this year production economics might factor in their announcements.

 

If you asked me who is more likely to do a Class 120, Hornby or Bachmann? I would immediately say Bachmann. Having said that, Hornby still has the 2-BIL, 2-HAL and 5-BEL in their 2015 catalogue along with the Javelin.

 

/wishlisting on

 

I'd like to see someone do an LSWR 3-car EMU someday. It's my top EMU preference but is low on my list (and probably everyone else's too).

 

/wishlisting off

 

A couple of additions for your list

 

The Class 158/159 and 170 have both been produced as 3 car versions in the past.

Bachmann also have the Class 411 - 4CEP as a 4-car unit in its tooling bank too

[Mike Storey]

A couple of additions for your list

 

The Class 158/159 and 170 have both been produced as 3 car versions in the past.

Bachmann also have the Class 411 - 4CEP as a 4-car unit in its tooling bank too

 

Yes indeed on  the 4CEP. They brought out the MLV in jaffa cake livery and then....perhaps we can expect the 4CEP refurbished (with the hopper windows) in Jaffa Cake? (Along with a 2-HAP obviously....wish, wish.)

[Dunsignalling]

But the loco and coaches could be bought as separate items over a period of time. The 3-car DMU has to be bought in one hit.

 

Cheers,

Mick

Nowadays, you can't be sure of having the time to do that without a risk of missing out so that is not so strong an argument as it would have been in the past.

 

I've been setting aside the unused portion of my modelling budget during the recent lean years and it's built up to a level that means I wouldn't bat an eyelid at a 3-car unit costing £150+ if it were something I really wanted (and the Class 120 certainly is).

 

If and when my reserves run low, I intend to hit the plastic to cover any glut then spread the cost over the barren months that will inevitably follow. 

 

John