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Bachmann 2015/16 Speculation ... or Divination 101 as it is known on the Hogwarts Express

Ozexpatriate

By Ozexpatriate,
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Andy Hayter

Andy Hayter

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The problem with auctions adb968008 is that they may or may not be a good measure of the market desire.

 

I too would like a C Class fully lined - but sure as h€ll was not paying £350 or more - let alone the 550 now being asked (same model??).

 

But does that make the market for a re-release 500+ or less than 10?   That would be 10 desperate for this model - for whatever good or bad reasons - but nevertheless only 10.  It actually only takes 2 people to push an auction price into orbit.  I have added the two of us plus a few others to come to a lower estimate of 10.  I really hope the reality is more than 500 and that Bachmann can see that in their market research and just maybe we can get one.

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Dunsignalling

Dunsignalling

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Any business market is like a funnel, that is why auctions are a perfect example of darwinianism.

The lower the price the greater the demand, supply and demand market forces dictate this.

 

I'm sure only 10 people will pay £500 per model, I am equally sure 500 people will pay £100, and 1000 will pay £50.

The shortage of supply for this model and the size of demand will see the price rise, until it reaches the peak "1" person prepared to pay it... £500 is impressive, I'm sure one person will pay £600.

 

(Indeed the companies would not have adopted the monopolistic price increases they did last year, if they didn't believe the market would pay for it, by restricting supply over the last two years they have built up demand at higher prices).

 

Of course Charles Darwin works both ways, and this year I've seen some dumping of over priced stock, down to a point where the price is low enough there is demand to buy it...Riko learned this the hard way... I'm sure one or two others will do too... Which in doing so, opens up supply chains and reduces the price...

 

Oil, house prices, the EU, model trains... Business is the organics of supply and demand to make revenue and the best strategists know how to exploit it to make money.

Yes, but deliberate under-production (as opposed to misjudgement of demand) would only benefit Bachmann if they auctioned the models themselves.

 

All they have achieved in this case is to create a situation where other people reap the benefits of scarcity whilst adversely affecting their own bottom line by making fewer models than they could have sold and/or selling them at prices lower than they could have got.

 

Whichever way you cut it, they got it wrong.

 

John

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Gerald Henriksen

Gerald Henriksen

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Any business market is like a funnel, that is why auctions are a perfect example of darwinianism.

The lower the price the greater the demand, supply and demand market forces dictate this.

Actually, they don't.

 

All the ebay experience will tell you is there are at least 2 people willing to fight over a model/item. You cannot guarantee that those 2 people mean that there are 500 willing to pay list, it is just as likely there are only 100 willing to pay list price. Auctions distort things depending on how much supply, and how willing to (over)pay a small number of people are.

 

I'm sure only 10 people will pay £500 per model, I am equally sure 500 people will pay £100, and 1000 will pay £50.

The shortage of supply for this model and the size of demand will see the price rise, until it reaches the peak "1" person prepared to pay it... £500 is impressive, I'm sure one person will pay £600.

Size of demand is irrelevant, it is simply the willingness of a small number to overpay.

 

I seem to recall a North American manufacturer may have used your logic to produce an additional run of an item, and discovered that they demand was not there and they were left with a lot of unsold stock.

 

Of course anyone who is really sure the demand is there can always pay Bachmann for a custom run and sell it themselves and make some money (if they are right).

 

(Indeed the companies would not have adopted the monopolistic price increases they did last year, if they didn't believe the market would pay for it, by restricting supply over the last two years they have built up demand at higher prices whilst producing less.. Very efficient, for now).

The companies have raised prices because their costs have gone up. Now it may well be the market cannot absorb the cost increase, in which case the companies could go out of business, or may find other ways of cutting costs to bring prices down (which may or many not be good depending on what happens).

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The Stationmaster

The Stationmaster

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I'm quite sure that Bachmann would be a lot happier if they could get the product through from Kader and then sell it - far better to be satisfying demand rather than just creating it and in any case from what retailers are announcing it appears that some stock is arriving.

 

As far as the auction market is concerned the original comparison doesn't really apply for many items - including model railways.  A much sought after long discontinued model appears at auction - result stuff competition between collectors and the price is pushed up.  Unless the item is very rare (there are some of course) everyone else who has one sees the price and decides 'I must have some of that' and puts thelr own on sale.  Net result - the price falls especially as the price for the first one was forced by the winning bidder and the under-bidder, those who dropped out didn't go that far then and won't do so in the future.   The price only holds - usually only for a short while - as long as a number of folk are prepared to go to the same level as the under-bidder and that rarely happens except in certain highly specialised categories.

 

It is a bit different where the item being sold at auction has a market beyond the auction room/Ebay but again price is driven more by availability of money than anything else.

 

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phil gollin

phil gollin

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.

 

One of the problems with question of whether people would like a RE-RUN of the fully lined C-Class was that it led to some confusion.

 

By RE-RUN did they mean the model with the same number ?

 

If so, then anyone who wants to "run a railway" would probably say no, as they would not want a duplicate.  Likewise a collector would probably say no, as they again would have a duplicate and in addition they would probably see it as a bit of poor practice on the part of the manufacturer.

 

Now, if it were the same loco, in full livery with a new number then I can see many more people saying "yes", but that is a guess.

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ThaneofFife

ThaneofFife

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well ive recently read two snippets of publicly available info that for me personally could point to disappointing new models that arent on my own radar or of interest but could be boomtime news for others if this sort of thing floats their flagpole or runs up their boats :).

 

the class 89 is being readied for a return to main line use - maybe not this year which could be great for those hoping another manufacturer nips into the fray in the next 12 months to grab it for themselves thus leaving a nice spare Bachmann "slot" for something else - something in plenty of liveries and number and styles.    

 

and the mk1 suburban coaches according to this months rail express magazine are one of bachmanns oldest toolings.

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Melangoose

Melangoose

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Looking forward to see what Bachmann plans next month. There are loads of repaints of exsisting models that would generate a lot of interest

Class 47/4 in Large Logo

Class 47 in Speedlink Trainload Freight diamonds

Class 57 in West Coast

Class 57 in Northern Belle

Class 70 in Colas (with modifications)

And weathered models (similar to their 66101)

Class 66/4 in drebranded DRS with Freightliner logos

Class 66 in debranded EWS with DB logos

 

TTA tanks unbranded weathered (like the Kernow ltd editions of a few years ago)

100 ton tanks with Tiphook leasing branding

 

As far as new models are concerned I would think that a Class 175 would be a good move.

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dseagull

dseagull

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For those still in the market for a SECR liveried 'C' there's one in the cabinet at the Hobby Box in Uckfield, new not secondhand... (No connection, just a regular customer). I don't know how much it is, but I'd be surprised if it is over list price, they are very reasonable.

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newbryford

newbryford

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Having been apparently beaten to the J15 by Hornby, I hope Bachmann do NOT lay claim to that other LNER 0-6-0 stalwart, the J17. I should like to see that come from Hornby, to the same standard as the J15...

 

Hmmm - a positive Hornby post on a Bachmann thread - who'd have thought that possible 6 months ago?

 

Cheers,

Mick

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delticfan

delticfan

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well ive recently read two snippets of publicly available info that for me personally could point to disappointing new models that arent on my own radar or of interest but could be boomtime news for others if this sort of thing floats their flagpole or runs up their boats :).

 

the class 89 is being readied for a return to main line use - maybe not this year which could be great for those hoping another manufacturer nips into the fray in the next 12 months to grab it for themselves thus leaving a nice spare Bachmann "slot" for something else - something in plenty of liveries and number and styles.    

 

and the mk1 suburban coaches according to this months rail express magazine are one of bachmanns oldest toolings.

THe 89 is dumped at barrow hill no activity seen in or around it.

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Andy W

Andy W

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and the mk1 suburban coaches according to this months rail express magazine are one of bachmanns oldest toolings.

Old, yes. One of the oldest, no.

If age of original tooling has anything to do with when a model gets a makeover, the LMS Period 1 corridors and the GW Collett corridors are both much older, dating back to Mainline. The Bulleid stock must be much the same tooling age as the Mk1 non-corridors. Rail Express specialises in the diesel and electric era so tends to ignore earlier stuff as of no interest to their readers.

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south_tyne

south_tyne

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Hi, yes the LNER one. Easily turn one out before the standard gauge one! The building it went into liquidation last week according to press reports and other forums

 

 

Yes, bust! On the London Gazette. Hardly a surprise to be honest.

 

Excuse my stupidity but I can't find any reference to this online... do you have any further information?

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