Hornby's Warley Announcements.

[Vistisen]

Cross your fingers,Mr.Ames. To have a "good" Christmas,you need to get your products to the market place in good time and in good condition.On "our" section of the market,it's not happening,is it ?

 

I can understand that it is a bit hard to see the doom laden froth about Hornby losing money and being forced to closedown being shown to be bull... incorrect. Sales of model railway 'stuff' have INCREASED by 18% and the group as a whole made a profit. So obviously it IS happening. it might well be that in "our" section, what ever that is, you may feel your needs have not been met. This may even be true, But one thing is certain, If Hornby are to stand a chance of also fufilling these needs, then they have to make a profit, which they are. So that must be good news? unless the doomsayers would rather see Hornby go under than be wrong!

[Karhedron]

Meanwhile, surely it is time for a 2SUB (we would be very lucky to get a 4SUB)? Why have they gone for the more obscure BIL's and HAL's up to now?

Because the outer-suburban units like these offer a bit more in the way of operational flexibility. The high density units like the SUBs and EPBs really need intensive operations to run realistically.

 

The HALs and BILs can run in a greater variety of settings and 2-car trains are more managable than 4-car ones. At some point people are going to want some longer and/or inner suburban units to go with them but to do them first would be to put the cart before the horses.

 

On a small layout, it is easier to justify HALs/BILs without SUBs/EPBs than vice versa. The HALs and BILs could be seen running through open country as well as the suburbs and could be found in small termini stations like Littlehampton or Seaford and not just the big London termini.

[mikeharvey22]

Just one point tho' John - as someone (a former main works apprentice) once said to me many years ago 'don't trust a GA drawing, check the real thing and just look at the differences from the drawing', and he meant the real thing as built, not after it had passed through shops several times.

 

No doubt in mymind that the best sources are original drawings and hopefully the real thing to check against them plus piles of dated photos but of course, as you say, that's difficult when the real thing no longer exists, it's just a bit silly in my view to ignore it when it does.

I have an SNCF GA of a passenger coach where one window consistently appears undersized and the window spacing of all the other windows has been compromised to compensate for the error. Very curious. Definitely one where advice not to scale from the drawing is sincerely meant.

[Xerces Fobe2]

A Blue 2HAL would appear to be a a new item with minimal investment, however how much will it be £150 given the eye watering rises over the past couple of years?

[Legend]

I note that after their last minute pull out last year, there is no mention of Hornby sponsoring Model Rail Scotland this year(2015).So I suspect nothing Scottish again this year, except for the turbocharged Caley 0-4-0 . Ignored again. Disgraceful, I'm getting Nicola Sturgeon onto this!

[The Stationmaster]

Quite true. I was told the purpose of a GA drawing was more about how (and in what order) things went together than exactly what the individual bits looked like.

 

That being the case it wasn't vital to represent everything precisely. It wasn't unknown to see (for example) the dome drawn a foot out of place on a GA but it would be correct where it really mattered, on the boiler plans. 

 

In the case of the Radial, I don't think there'd be much advantage to be had from the extra cost of scanning above running a tape over her to verify or correct the GA. 

 

John

Having seen a bit of how the process works I can see some advantages in it (scanning) and certainly some advantages in 'running a  tape over it'  (neither of which I understand have happened with the radial unless it was measured a good time back.

[The Stationmaster]

I can understand that it is a bit hard to see the doom laden froth about Hornby losing money and being forced to closedown being shown to be bull... incorrect. Sales of model railway 'stuff' have INCREASED by 18% and the group as a whole made a profit. So obviously it IS happening. it might well be that in "our" section, what ever that is, you may feel your needs have not been met. This may even be true, But one thing is certain, If Hornby are to stand a chance of also fufilling these needs, then they have to make a profit, which they are. So that must be good news? unless the doomsayers would rather see Hornby go under than be wrong!

It all depends what you mean by 'profit' - the Half Yearly report states 'an underlying profit of £0.25 million' and 'a statutory loss of £0.52 million'.

 

The rise in model railway sales seems to be attributed to the 'Mod' coaches in N scale and a 'Flying Scotsman trainset' and they are stating they are 'well placed for Christmas'.

Which might well mean that they see fiddly detailed models demanded by railway modellers as not the best place to put their production slots and money.  No doubt something 'attractive' will be announced tomorrow but when it will emerge and what part of the market it will be aimed at are two very different matters.

 

If you are running a business and you can get 18% growth with a trainset and some continental outline coaches it isn't too difficult to work out where to invest next - whatver gives the best return.

[Legend]

It all depends what you mean by 'profit' - the Half Yearly report states 'an underlying profit of £0.25 million' and 'a statutory loss of £0.52 million'.

 

The rise in model railway sales seems to be attributed to the 'Mod' coaches in N scale and a 'Flying Scotsman trainset' and they are stating they are 'well placed for Christmas'.

Which might well mean that they see fiddly detailed models demanded by railway modellers as not the best place to put their production slots and money.  No doubt something 'attractive' will be announced tomorrow but when it will emerge and what part of the market it will be aimed at are two very different matters.

 

If you are running a business and you can get 18% growth with a trainset and some continental outline coaches it isn't too difficult to work out where to invest next - whatver gives the best return.

But maybe it's only 18% growth because they sold all last year!

[darren01]

Appropriate time for an upgrade to the venerable "Utility Van". Considering your comment  and the fact Churchills repatriated UTE is currently undergoing restoration.

 

ChurchillUteShil-08-SM.jpg

 

Porcy

Did Hornby not do this model a while ago?

[Dunsignalling]

Did Hornby not do this model a while ago?

Yes but it was the old Tri-ang one from about 1959 'modernised' with bogies that only go back to the '70s! 

 

I think these guys want a better one and I wouldn't object so long as they did it in green as well.

 

John

[Oldddudders]

 

 

Meanwhile, surely it is time for a 2SUB (we would be very lucky to get a 4SUB)? Why have they gone for the more obscure BIL's and HAL's up to now?

 

 

Monstrous! BILs and HALs obscure, Mike? With about 250 2-car units built? Even before the war, these units performed everywhere between Gillingham, Maidstone, Hastings, Eastbourne, Brighton, Bognor, Portsmouth, Alton and Reading. That's quite a spread. They offer the modeller the choice of suburban or rural locale - even bosky Horsted Keynes.

 

And SUBs - which version? I don't actually recall a 2-SUB, although I think there were 3-SUBs in times past, but they had several bodystyles as a result of all sorts of odd parentages and the Southern's marvellous way of rebuilding everything to make it new again. Only the post-war Bulleid all-steel types were really uniform in appearance - and then only up to a point. They are worthy subjects for a model, sure, but no more so than the heritage units Hornby has made such a success of so far - and which seem to be selling fairly well.

[Mike Storey]

Because the outer-suburban units like these offer a bit more in the way of operational flexibility. The high density units like the SUBs and EPBs really need intensive operations to run realistically.

 

The HALs and BILs can run in a greater variety of settings and 2-car trains are more managable than 4-car ones. At some point people are going to want some longer and/or inner suburban units to go with them but to do them first would be to put the cart before the horses.

 

On a small layout, it is easier to justify HALs/BILs without SUBs/EPBs than vice versa. The HALs and BILs could be seen running through open country as well as the suburbs and could be found in small termini stations like Littlehampton or Seaford and not just the big London termini.

 

I can see your point for branch line seaside termini and the ease of 2 car units. Bachmann's 2EPB also sold well. However, Bachmann brought out their 4CEP, which sold well enough to commission a further batch, and Hornby brought out the 4VEP, which did not sell as well, because it was crap of its well known problems and strange choice of liveries (maybe the more serious defects will have been rectified by the Blue Grey version due shortly). The 4SUB is nonetheless a huge gap in the market, not the COR, CIG or other more geographically restricted sets being promoted (as is the 2HAP etc., which is more readily produced in blue boxes, using one car from their EPB and one from their Thumper, with minor changes, should they choose to do so). 

[Andy Hayter]

But maybe it's only 18% growth because they sold ###### all last year!

But there again maybe it's not - because at least for the Jouef market they seem to be selling (out) very well.

[gc4946]

Both Hornby and Bachmann have had to factor in increased wage rises in China, could it mean that some models previously viable when manufactured by Sanda Kan might not reappear for some time?

 

I guess they'll be more Railroad announcements - classes 73, 101 and 121 will become part of its range for the first time.

A new B12 may be tooled up for both superdetail and Railroad options.

They may also announce a Mk1 RMB or RB to match their other types in stock.

 

They'll expand the range of TTS sound-fitted locos, with only a few using ESU chips if fitted with 21-pin sockets.

 

 

[Mike Storey]

Monstrous! BILs and HALs obscure, Mike? With about 250 2-car units built? Even before the war, these units performed everywhere between Gillingham, Maidstone, Hastings, Eastbourne, Brighton, Bognor, Portsmouth, Alton and Reading. That's quite a spread. They offer the modeller the choice of suburban or rural locale - even bosky Horsted Keynes.

 

And SUBs - which version? I don't actually recall a 2-SUB, although I think there were 3-SUBs in times past, but they had several bodystyles as a result of all sorts of odd parentages and the Southern's marvellous way of rebuilding everything to make it new again. Only the post-war Bulleid all-steel types were really uniform in appearance - and then only up to a point. They are worthy subjects for a model, sure, but no more so than the heritage units Hornby has made such a success of so far - and which seem to be selling fairly well.

 

Alright, alright, there were quite a lot of them. Now then! The BILs already seem to be going for large discounts at the Cornish emporium, but not the HALs, so I am not sure what that tells us. There were c.270 Bulleid/BR 4SUBs units built post 1944, not counting all the different re-builds and re-formations from the original pre-war 3SUBs, so there. Of course, I only talk post-war (Vietnam) Ian, 'cos you are much older than wot I am. (But despite that, yes, I should have said 4SUBs only, and excuse myself only by saying I was going to rant about 2HAPs but then realised it would be a different box colour......)

[Mike Storey]

But there again maybe it's not - because at least for the Jouef market they seem to be selling (out) very well.

 

Quite so. the 18% growth is for non-UK model rail business. The UK rail business grew only 5%, but it did grow. 

[Hilux5972]

According to a picture on facebook, Hornby have some new 2015 items available to see at Warley. Looking forward to hearing these.

[antrobuscp]

Quite so. the 18% growth is for non-UK model rail business. The UK rail business grew only 5%, but it did grow. 

Did the "business" grow, or just the prices?

[Retro_man]

Did the "business" grow, or just the prices?

As Hornby cut retailer's margins in half at the beginning of the year, they should have increased model train revenue by a lot more than 5%.

[rovex]

I do wonder if the duplication we have all been talking about isn't the Adams radial but the 47xx. Its big and green far more traditional horn by material

[Hilux5972]

I'm hoping that too. I know Hornby havent had the most reliable track record with steam Locos lately, but given the amount of locos that Heljan have had with their only UK steam loco so far, I would much prefer Hornby to produce this loco.

[Hroth]

I don't really care about Hornbys 2015 predictions, they're about as accurate as the horoscope in the Sun.

 

What I would like to see is the production of all the outstanding models to DATE by the end of Q1 2015.  New models for 2015 should be limited to what they can actually produce in q2-4 of 2015. The main problem is that Chinese New Year falls in the middle of February, which essentially means that the whole of February is a dead duck and it'll be May before the factories are up to strength and their employees retrained.

 

WIth a such a volatile, fickle workforce it must be difficult to predict output, and the prevarications,facesaving lies and fraudulent behaviour* of Chinese management only compound the problem. It seems that China wasn't such a Good Idea in the long term.

 

 

* Not hyperbole, I know of a particular instance where key components were swapped for cheaper items that did not function to spec by a Chinese manufacturer for a product outsourced by a UK company.

[Legend]

As Hornby cut retailer's margins in half at the beginning of the year, they should have increased model train revenue by a lot more than 5%.

Good point retro man. I'd quite forgotten that point while looking at figures!

[Multiple identity account]

Anyone can update us on what the pre-viewed 2015 models are? A few pics of the pre-production Crost 9F will also be great.

Thanks in advance

[Oldddudders]

Of course, I only talk post-war (Vietnam) Ian, 'cos you are much older than wot I am.

Oi! Any more of that and you'll be sent back to cover Early Turn at Cannon Street again! I don't think there are quite as many trains as when you worked there, and I would occasionally cover for Fred Wales.

 

The Hornby BILs were another shag-up when they first appeared. Everyone liked them - but supply was initially dire. Kernow has indeed got an offer on early production versions in BR livery. I have a couple of Southern Railway versions, and like them a lot. The HAL, of course, is very new, so prices are still up there. Again, v pleased with mine in olive.