Hornby 2023 - New tooling - DELTIC prototype - Hornby Dublo

[PeterStiles]

5 minutes ago, Covkid said:

"Rapido style"

Given the liveries the Holden 101 pops up (plus, e.g. LNER Class 43s..) in, I fear that this should really be referred "Hornby Style".

[GordonC]

18 hours ago, Steamport Southport said:

 

You've got to think of the Hornby Dublo market as more like the Wrenn collectors back in the 1970s and 1980s. These are the people who would have paid £100 for a CR liveried 4MT 2-6-4T in 1980 when you could buy five Mainline tender locomotives for the same price. It wasn't even the correct type of 4MT 2-6-4T.

 

They don't want Bachmann, Rapido or Accurascale. They are collecting one thing. I'm afraid most will never see a layout.

 

If you don't understand collectors, then you never will. Collectors are those that will pay three million dollars for a Superman comic rather than the many reprints you can pick up for $5. Then put it in a bank vault for safe keeping.

 

The Hornby Dublo range is just Wrenn for the 2020s.

 

Jason

 

But thats where aiming to sell exclusively to collectors falls down ... exclusivity. If we're regularly told its 6 figures to tool up a loco then there isn't a lot of contingency to cover costs in one run of 500, but the more get produced the less attractive they will be to collectors. Even if they can reuse components like Class 50 bogies, there cant be much else they'll already have to reduce the development expenditure.

 

When we all know Hornby have had financial issues, it sounds a lot more like a nostalgic vanity project more than one that financially makes sense to bring profits in.

[The Stationmaster]

18 hours ago, Bernard Lamb said:

Which is exactly why they have to expoit the situation in the next few years, The group of punters sitting on wads of cash is soon going to go into decline, if not free fall.

Bernard

I have more than suspicion that the model railway collector market (i.e those people who literally only collect models and do nothing else with them) has gone teh same way as many other collector markets.   I don't know no of anyone who is a pure collector of the type who buys an example if every whatever somebody produces.  I haven't come across a Hornby R number collector for years and I know of several Hornby (new issue) loco collectors who have headed off to the great collecting market in the sky.

 

This is exactly what has happened in various other collecting markets but some of them have been sustained by newcomers who can start at the lower priced end and gradually build up their collection as money and time etc allow.  You can't do that with the HD diecast range as the entry cost is pretty high.  And this year if you want, as a proper collector will, everything newly announced in the diecast range for 2023 you'll need over four grand to buy it if you include similarly proced 'special editions'.  Are there really still 500 people out there with that sort of money (or even 250 which I think is more likely to be the size of some of the various Scotsmanesque, and probably the various A4 runs)?

 

So can they charge more per item?  Always an interesting question as you (and Hornby) won't know how many they could shift at the higher price.  Some collectors will have the wherewithal to pay more - but how many of the 500?   And what if the price of all of this year's other HD models is also increased?   Don't forget - it you really are a collector you will need all of them to complete your you (new) HD & Hornby diecast collection.

 

I  collect railway related postcards (and sell on in order to create cash to buy or upgrade my collection) and it is one where prices are very variable - rare (single) items in good condition fetch three figure sums, run-of-the-mill stuff goes for much, much less.   But don't forget that very often the number of people prepared and able to afford an old postcard costing over £100 at auction is very limited, no more than a handful across the whole of Britain.  So if I want to cover areas I haven''t got then the cheaper items can allow me to broaden my collection.

 

But I, and others, couldn't do that with Hornby diecast locos (not that I want to) as the market doesn't yet work that way.  And never forget that prices in any collecting market can go down as well as up (as much as a matter of fashion as anything else) - and that happens with model railway collecting just as it does in other areas.  Selling new into collecting markets can suffer in just the same way - Hornby beware

[frobisher]

3 hours ago, GordonC said:

But thats where aiming to sell exclusively to collectors falls down ... exclusivity. If we're regularly told its 6 figures to tool up a loco then there isn't a lot of contingency to cover costs in one run of 500, but the more get produced the less attractive they will be to collectors. Even if they can reuse components like Class 50 bogies, there cant be much else they'll already have to reduce the development expenditure.

 

There is a possibility; There was talk about a shelved project in the past that was very advanced and that this might have been it.   We are told the project was well advanced but sufficiently behind the competing model to not make it worth proceeding to manufacture at the time, and that expenditure would have been written off as losses 10+ years ago.

 

If there were partial tooling (say chassis et al) existing, then picking it up to go again would be relatively cheap (so tooling the body in effect).

 

But even then I can't see them making "just" that 500 limited edition.  There's more coming in the next few years.

 

 

 

 

[Bulleidboy100]

The "fitted sound" version is still available - £315 with Collectors Club discount.

[5Dublo2]

16 minutes ago, Bulleidboy100 said:

The "fitted sound" version is still available - £315 with Collectors Club discount.

Probably still available as they didn't make the fitted sound version easy to find on the website - it does not show in the 2023 range New Locos section. A search for the part number doesn't find it. However a search for Deltic does (but didn't yesterday)

[Bulleidboy100]

It's on the same page in the Hornby shop as the non-sound version, but no image as yet.

[adb968008]

6 hours ago, Bulleidboy100 said:

The "fitted sound" version is still available - £315 with Collectors Club discount.

Where did that come from ?

 

i’m pretty certain it wasn't there the other day.
A quick google shows no results.

 

 

it wasnt listed in Hornby magazine.

its not listed on page one of this thread.

 

so does this mean its 1000 now ?

If the TXS one sells out, is the TTS one next ?

maybe one with gold plated wheels will follow ?

 

Things like this, is why collectors have to be cautious with Hornby.., theres always an angle and plenty more where that came from.

 

However…

Drax has sold or listed over 200 x 2 wagon packs on ebay, if the suggestion of 500 packs of 2 wagons * 2 were made (2000 total, as suggested by Olivias), then 20% of the Drax wagons have gone on ebay already….

one poor lad on ebay, has had a “change of circumstances”, and asked his dad to help sell them…. Seems to have sold over 32 packs of 2 so far… thats quite a lucky change of circumstances to have made, especially as he's got another 6 more for sale.

 

Speculators..

i cant help thinking they are underpinning some of these kinds of sales.

if like Drax, 20% ordered multiples, then maybe 100 others may have a change of circumstance when it arrives.

but this is Dublo… its not the same market as “runners” of models.
I wonder how many speculators just had their hopes dashed ?

 

 

Edited January 18, 2023 by adb968008

[Hilux5972]

3 hours ago, adb968008 said:

but this is Dublo… its not the same market as “runners” of models.
I wonder how many speculators just had their hopes dashed ?

Why do people insist on suggesting that anyone who purchases a Dublo loco won’t run it! 

[adb968008]

1 hour ago, Hilux5972 said:

Why do people insist on suggesting that anyone who purchases a Dublo loco won’t run it! 

Thats not quite what I said, I said its not the same market.

I doubt anywhere near the same proportion of Dublo buyers will have regular desires to run them, compared to any other model. 

 

Running them will reduce their value.

That said making multiple runs of hundreds of them will too.
Collectors generally speaking see value in their collections, otherwise why collect something of no value ?

Modellers buy to weather and run, or at least have the intention to.

 

The Deltic has a “modellers model” already, in the Deltic, what advantage will a blue stripey box and a metal body bring when weathering and running on a layout ?

 

Its a question of how much value your prepared to lose, as I doubt modern Dublo is really about gain… Aside of 6231, the other Dublo models havent been overly “rare” or hard to find. The 2021 releases, the “instant pre-order sell out” has waned… but the 2022 releases, the Blue Duchess only just sold out, but is available at retailers, whilst A4’s, from last year are still open to pre-order, as is the Merchant navy.

So this model imo is more for collectors, but how many collectors are there ? And how many collectors will buy more than 1 ?

 

It seems 500 passed the threshold, to a reach a second bite with new sound… will it reach a third bite ?.. 

 

I’m trying to think what next for Dublo, in Diesel traction, or is Deltic a dead end ? My thoughts would be stick to rooted in the past diesels, maybe DP2 ? Or a Cobo ?.. I still come back to a production 55, but my thoughts are for £350, a modern image buyer will chose plastic detailed, with sound & fans over a stripey box with a metal body diesel in it… unless its got those too.

Cards on the table I bought 6231 (red), 46252 (green) and 46250 (blue), and ive the two MNs. However my interest ceased at that… the third MN in 2022 offered nothing new. The plethora of A4’s this year just makes me want to stay with the mix of A4’s I already have, including the Dapol ones. I have ordered a Deltic though, but I wont be running it, as its just different.. I wont be buying more than one though.

 

What would turn me back to Dublo would be an original body Royal Scot in as visited US condition.

 

But a Rebuilt MN, 8f or Castle would suffice. If they think low volume Dublo works, why not turn the clock back further and do pre-grouping express locos ? Claughton, Saint, Dreadnought, D17, Cardean…

 

 

Edited January 19, 2023 by adb968008

[MidlandRed]

21 hours ago, The Stationmaster said:

I have more than suspicion that the model railway collector market (i.e those people who literally only collect models and do nothing else with them) has gone teh same way as many other collector markets.   I don't know no of anyone who is a pure collector of the type who buys an example if every whatever somebody produces.  I haven't come across a Hornby R number collector for years and I know of several Hornby (new issue) loco collectors who have headed off to the great collecting market in the sky.

 

This is exactly what has happened in various other collecting markets but some of them have been sustained by newcomers who can start at the lower priced end and gradually build up their collection as money and time etc allow.  You can't do that with the HD diecast range as the entry cost is pretty high.  And this year if you want, as a proper collector will, everything newly announced in the diecast range for 2023 you'll need over four grand to buy it if you include similarly proced 'special editions'.  Are there really still 500 people out there with that sort of money (or even 250 which I think is more likely to be the size of some of the various Scotsmanesque, and probably the various A4 runs)?

 

So can they charge more per item?  Always an interesting question as you (and Hornby) won't know how many they could shift at the higher price.  Some collectors will have the wherewithal to pay more - but how many of the 500?   And what if the price of all of this year's other HD models is also increased?   Don't forget - it you really are a collector you will need all of them to complete your you (new) HD & Hornby diecast collection.

 

I  collect railway related postcards (and sell on in order to create cash to buy or upgrade my collection) and it is one where prices are very variable - rare (single) items in good condition fetch three figure sums, run-of-the-mill stuff goes for much, much less.   But don't forget that very often the number of people prepared and able to afford an old postcard costing over £100 at auction is very limited, no more than a handful across the whole of Britain.  So if I want to cover areas I haven''t got then the cheaper items can allow me to broaden my collection.

 

But I, and others, couldn't do that with Hornby diecast locos (not that I want to) as the market doesn't yet work that way.  And never forget that prices in any collecting market can go down as well as up (as much as a matter of fashion as anything else) - and that happens with model railway collecting just as it does in other areas.  Selling new into collecting markets can suffer in just the same way - Hornby beware

Yes, interesting thoughts as always @The Stationmaster
 

However, have you seen the classic car ‘collector’s market’, where people collect multiple items and pay tens of thousands and more for items (and that’s before you get to the really high priced stuff sold through v posh auctioneers). There appear to be a huge number of people involved in this judging by the frequency and volume of on line auctions. Similar for railwayana - there was a theory a few years back that the market for this would crash as steam era people departed, as it were - however it seems to be as popular as ever. It’s the same with guitar collection - the skys the limit if you have a spare several hundred thousand pounds - and many have multiple items/pieces. 

 

I sometimes wonder if the theory, which seems to pervade RMWeb, that Hornby flies by the seat of the pants and does no market research just lurching around perhaps does them a dis-service and in reality they know a lot more than us interested observers, despite the odd faux pas which comes to light 

 

I seem to recall reading a few days ago in this thread that the HD Deltic had already sold out!! 

Edited January 19, 2023 by MidlandRed

[TEAMYAKIMA]

28 minutes ago, MidlandRed said:

I sometimes wonder if the theory, which seems to pervade RMWeb, that Hornby flies by the seat of the pants and does no market research just lurching around perhaps does them a dis-service and in reality they know a lot more than us interested observers, despite the odd faux pas which comes to light 

 

I seem to recall reading a few days ago in this thread that the HD Deltic had already sold out!! 

 

The basic version has - just before I decided to commit to buy one! 

 

But overnight a sound equipped one at £350 has appeared and so I've ordered one of them instead.

 

Do I model era 4? No!

 

Do I model OO? No!

 

Do I model British? No!

 

Am I a collector? No!

 

Would I ever buy a Bachmann plastic version? No - for all the reasons above. 

 

But I have a space in my small showcase and I had HD back in the early 1960's and I remember that HD catalogue with DP1 on the cover. So, for nostalgic reasons, I'm buying one - good choice Simon.

Edited January 19, 2023 by TEAMYAKIMA

[Bulleidboy100]

I am/was a collector before I had a small layout (10' x 7'). I have ordered the "sound" Deltic mainly as I used to see it very regularly in my spotting days (mid/late fifties) when it was operating out of Kings X. Will I run it, probably not - may be to show the grandchildren (just once!). I have a number of models that have not seen the light of day. One of the problems, was that when working, I was a five minute walk from ModelZones flagship shop in Holborn, London. They used to have some tremendous sales - so the cupboard started filling up!

Each to their own.

[spamcan61]

45 minutes ago, MidlandRed said:

 

I sometimes wonder if the theory, which seems to pervade RMWeb, that Hornby flies by the seat of the pants and does no market research just lurching around perhaps does them a dis-service and in reality they know a lot more than us interested observers, despite the odd faux pas which comes to light 

 

I seem to recall reading a few days ago in this thread that the HD Deltic had already sold out!! 

I think Hornby know the collector end of the spectrum pretty well - I would say it is a continuous spectrum from '100% collector' to '100% modeller' rather than bipolar; even though it looks like they could've shifted a fair few more of recent limited editions.

In terms of the modeller end of the market then they'll never please everyone in terms of what models they produce to what standards, sometimes they hit (in sales terms) sometimes they miss. I wouldn't want SK's job for all the tea in China, that's for sure - trying to work out how many of what to make across such a broad spectrum of potential buyers must be a nightmare, before we even start on the 'challenges' of outsourced production in the 2020s.

Would I want my continuing employment based on getting that right (enough), no thanks.

Edited January 19, 2023 by spamcan61

[MikeParkin65]

Allowing for the fact that we have yet to hear the Hornby Deltic sound project or see the abilities of the new decoders the sound fitted version seems a relative bargain compared to the non sound. I wonder if this will be an 'issue' for the collectors market if monetary value of the object is part of their fun?

[The Stationmaster]

1 hour ago, MidlandRed said:

Yes, interesting thoughts as always @The Stationmaster
 

However, have you seen the classic car ‘collector’s market’, where people collect multiple items and pay tens of thousands and more for items (and that’s before you get to the really high priced stuff sold through v posh auctioneers). There appear to be a huge number of people involved in this judging by the frequency and volume of on line auctions. Similar for railwayana - there was a theory a few years back that the market for this would crash as steam era people departed, as it were - however it seems to be as popular as ever. It’s the same with guitar collection - the skys the limit if you have a spare several hundred thousand pounds - and many have multiple items/pieces. 

 

I sometimes wonder if the theory, which seems to pervade RMWeb, that Hornby flies by the seat of the pants and does no market research just lurching around perhaps does them a dis-service and in reality they know a lot more than us interested observers, despite the odd faux pas which comes to light 

 

I seem to recall reading a few days ago in this thread that the HD Deltic had already sold out!! 

The railwayana market is a very mixed bag.  A certain well known - through tv appearances - auctioneer who I know bought some railway items on one of those seemingly 'competitive' tv shows and as I watched I forecast almost precisely how much he was about to lose.  When i saw him a few weeks after the programme was broadcast he asked me why his items had bombed and I explained to him that not all railwayana sells for good money and what he bought didn't stand a chance especially as he'd overpaid when he bought the items.  And he is an excellent valuer in his own field of expertise - which doesn't include railwayana   

 

I used to regularly buy railway ephemera and the hammer price difference on apparently very similar items such as excursion handbills was massive. I was picking up 19th century handbills for peanuts while some from the 1930s and '50s were going for £50+ simply because of what they advertised - which had little to do with railways, beyond train tines and fares and were selling into a non-railway market.  

 

The same applies all through the piece with railwayana with a lot nowadays depending on condition and exactly what it is, which really goes in any collecting market - condition and subject is all and makes a massive difference in realisable price.  I know of ephemera items which are in exactly the same, very good/'as new' condition where the average price is about £100 - 200 each but some of them in the series are highly sought after and will sell for £1,000 each.   With baseball cards the difference is even greater - some will sell for a few £s/US$s while a select few will go for as much as £20,000 (the record price is far higher).   Just the same with cars I suspect where originality is crucial for some buyers and, as with anything selling at auction, you only need two people with deep pockets to get into a bidding war and up goes the price.

 

Collecting multiples is an interesting area - I have what are, literally on the face of it, multiples of the same card but the backs have variations in the printing or issuer (although in all cases the price is measured in pence).  Something similar applies with official railway company issue cards where a variation in the series can push up the price although not as much as issuing company variations.  Thus most LNWR cards are cheap - until a new collector comes along - but some Midland Railway ones are expensive.  Various railway owned ship post cards also came with varying backs with some examples having the back in French - they tended at one time to be cheaper than English language backs but you need both to be complete (mostly too expensive for me as it happens).  And markets always go up and down, for example railwayana dropped massively when a particular, very well funded, buyer dropped out of the market.

 

Getting back to the Deltic I wouldn't be surprised if they allsell when the total is only 500 but who are they selling to?  G F Diesels are a slightly market from se team so new buyers will come in but if you are collecting new HD brand models  or all Hornby diescast models you are still going to face the need this year for a lot of cash to keep your collection complete.

 

And next year - well if they've got things right Hornby will have to do the Co-Bo.

[Ian Hargrave]

Just received my copy of The Collector ( please note the title ) in the post. Vey nicely produced with enticing ads & images. It introduces the Dublo Deltic, the non sound version of which has already reached the sold out status.  No I didn’t pre order but then given delivery dates of 2024 /5 why would I,given the timescale and an acceptance of my own mortality prospects …80+ and counting ? Wonder how many “collectors “give consideration to that.

 

Note an ad for an exclusive 46220 a number of which flew out at Warley & for a short while after until supplies ran out at what these days can be described as a knock down price. It’s a limited edition of 500 . At the bottom of the page is an exhortation to join the club so that I can order one. Er…..I’m already a member,otherwise I wouldn’t be reading the magazine now in front of me.. Nowhere do I see a most useful piece of information…..the price now asked. I’ll go online to the website to glean further information.

[Ian Hargrave]

It now weighs in at £149.99 on the H website . Yes,I suppose that is “reasonable “ but I think,a price hike from Warley. 
Fair enough but why omit it from the magazine where it appears as bait for prospective members ? 

[JohnR]

21 minutes ago, Ian Hargrave said:

It now weighs in at £149.99 on the H website . Yes,I suppose that is “reasonable “ but I think,a price hike from Warley. 
Fair enough but why omit it from the magazine where it appears as bait for prospective members ? 

 

No, that is the price before. The weird thing is, the club discount brings it down to £135, but you can only order if it you're a member of the club. So why quote the higher price?

[Steamport Southport]

13 hours ago, adb968008 said:

But a Rebuilt MN, 8f or Castle would suffice. If they think low volume Dublo works, why not turn the clock back further and do pre-grouping express locos ? Claughton, Saint, Dreadnought, D17, Cardean…

 

 

 

Because they were never available RTR so you haven't got the nostalgia aspect? Apart from the Saint and the least said about that the better.

 

If they were to do those then people like me would rather they were normal models rather than expensive collectors items. They would be £250 plus anyway, so why make them more expensive by pointlessly making them as collectables?

 

 

A Deltic was in the range. Might not be the right one, but they had one.

 

https://www.brightontoymuseum.co.uk/index/BR_Class_55_Deltic_diesel_locomotive_D9012_"Crepello"_(Hornby_Dublo_2234)

 

Maybe they had planned on doing a normal Deltic, but were beaten by Accurascale? We all knew it was up for grabs as the Bachmann one was a bit dated. 

 

Besides, back in stock at Hornby if anyone wants one.....

 

 

Jason

[Ian Hargrave]

39 minutes ago, JohnR said:

 

No, that is the price before. The weird thing is, the club discount brings it down to £135, but you can only order if it you're a member of the club. So why quote the higher price?

Indeed. Some joined up thinking would be helpful. Seems a nice model and appropriately pitched for the forthcoming event. 

 

[spamcan61]

10 minutes ago, Ian Hargrave said:

Indeed. Some joined up thinking would be helpful. Seems a nice model and appropriately pitched for the forthcoming event. 

 

My guess is that they quite reasonably don't want to pay somebody to 'tweak' their 'shop' software to add the extra complexity of 'is the buyer already in the club' process so to speak.

Edited January 19, 2023 by spamcan61

[Steamport Southport]

51 minutes ago, JohnR said:

 

No, that is the price before. The weird thing is, the club discount brings it down to £135, but you can only order if it you're a member of the club. So why quote the higher price?

 

Because then you couldn't say you got a 10% discount and people would be asking for a discount from the discounted price!

 

Don't forget you also get the "Hornby Points". So that's another £13.50 or so off the next purchase. Which with other accrued "Points" means I've got about £40 off something. That Caprotti Five is looking even more interesting....

 

 

Jason

[Phil Parker]

1 hour ago, Steamport Southport said:

We all knew it was up for grabs as the Bachmann one was a bit dated. 

 

But still better than most of the layouts it will sit on. We've had is mentioned elsewhere on the forum that modellers start shouting for models "updated to the latest standards" within a few years of a loco being produced. I wonder if there's a bigger crossover between "modeller" and "collector" than many people really want to admit. I'm tempted to argue that if you haven't thrown the box away, you're a collector... 😉

[adb968008]

2 hours ago, Steamport Southport said:

 

Because they were never available RTR so you haven't got the nostalgia aspect? Apart from the Saint and the least said about that the better.

 

If they were to do those then people like me would rather they were normal models rather than expensive collectors items. They would be £250 plus anyway, so why make them more expensive by pointlessly making them as collectables?

 

 

A Deltic was in the range. Might not be the right one, but they had one.

 

https://www.brightontoymuseum.co.uk/index/BR_Class_55_Deltic_diesel_locomotive_D9012_"Crepello"_(Hornby_Dublo_2234)

 

 

Jason

Not buying that argument.

 

The only nostalgic Dublo theyve made was the first one, 6231 Duchess of Sutherland.

 

There never was a Dublo original Merchant Navy,  no 60007 in BR Green, no Gannet in LNER blue… certainly no flying scotsman and the Deltic is a wishlist… the recent Duchesses arent Dublo numbers either. The Great Gathering is only 10 years past.

 

If this was about nostalgia (which dont get me wrong is a good idea), but we would be seeing 46232 in Green, Barnstable as a Rebuilt bulleid and 4498 in Blue.

 

This isnt about replicating the past, its about appealing to it…. Which means boundaries can be moved.. like an original Merchant Navy, Deltic etc.

 

Dont forget, only the body is metal, tender is stock standard plastic. For the most part, your paying c£100 for a stripey blue cardboard shell of a box… so whats in the box should imo stand out if Dublo has longevity.

 

For that reason I say if Dublo finds its niche long term, it needs to be something more special than mainstream, at a premium in a stripey box… it’ll wear out.

Edited January 19, 2023 by adb968008