Hornby 2023 - New tooling - DELTIC prototype - Hornby Dublo

[No Decorum]

8 hours ago, adb968008 said:

 

Ive still got that sacred limited edition 4771 Green Arrow somewhere, spare never to be repeated, once, twice, thrice….

 

I’m glad that it rankled with someone else too. I got it thinking it would be my only chance to get a model of Green Arrow but I was afraid to “destroy it’s value” by sticking coal in its tender and that sort of thing. I got the later model and felt free to muck it about. Meanwhile, the original, devoid of much value is stashed away. Nice box but nice boxes just make things awkward to store when LNER isn’t the flavour this week.

[GordonC]

12 hours ago, Hilux5972 said:

What makes you think it won’t be “up to scratch”? 

 

'Hornby'

[Legend]

I just find it really puzzling that 500 models can make money, what with development ,tooling costs etc . 500 models at £320 gives max revenue of £160,000 .  I'm wondering if its actually cheaper to develop models in die cast rather than plastic, although cant see how .  Most Dublo models seem to have limited production runs of 500, although its certainly true that the tooling is used to bring out a different version the next year so I suppose it could stretch to 1000s of models , and of course the chassis is already in use for the plastic model . But the same is not true of the Deltic.  Really love to know the costings and return on this , but of course never will . 

Edited January 17, 2023 by Legend

[JohnR]

14 minutes ago, Legend said:

I just find it really puzzling that 500 models can make money, what with development ,tooling costs etc . 500 models at £320 gives max revenue of £160,000 .  I'm wondering if its actually cheaper to develop models in die cast rather than plastic, although cant see how .  Most Dublo models seem to have limited production runs of 500, although its certainly true that the tooling is used to bring out a different version the next year so I suppose it could stretch to 1000s of models , and of course the chassis is already in use for the plastic model . But the same is not true of the Deltic.  Really love to know the costings and return on this , but of course never will . 

 

Thats why the choice of DP1 is so strange. At least with the A4 tooling, they've been able to produce multiple variants - including this years Great Gathering set. 

[GordonC]

25 minutes ago, Legend said:

I just find it really puzzling that 500 models can make money, what with development ,tooling costs etc . 500 models at £320 gives max revenue of £160,000 .  I'm wondering if its actually cheaper to develop models in die cast rather than plastic, although cant see how .  Most Dublo models seem to have limited production runs of 500, although its certainly true that the tooling is used to bring out a different version the next year so I suppose it could stretch to 1000s of models , and of course the chassis is already in use for the plastic model . But the same is not true of the Deltic.  Really love to know the costings and return on this , but of course never will . 

 

Its worse than that, £320 would include VAT so even selling direct Hornby would only be getting £265 per model or £132,500 in total but that includes manufacturing costs, shipping and potentially DCC Sound chips (if it does include that, there seemed to be some debate).

 

Perhaps they are recovering costs already spent in the past so not entirely starting from scratch with it. Had the Bachmann model not existed, it would make perfect sense to release it, but Bachmann have already released several production runs including minor livery variations and could quite easily push the button to make more so that has to narrow sales potential for Hornby surely. I just cant see 'die-cast' and 'Hornby Dublo' label on the box being enough of a differentiator compared to the already excellent Bachmann Deltic.

[Ian Hargrave]

Bachmann have issued two releases of DP1 and not several. Other versions ( of production Deltics D9000-D9021 ) are of a quite separate tooling. FWIW,Hornby are still more than capable of pulling out all the stops and producing a first class product as witnessed by the new 9F and by models in development such as the Standard 78xxx etc.

[The Stationmaster]

36 minutes ago, Legend said:

I just find it really puzzling that 500 models can make money, what with development ,tooling costs etc . 500 models at £320 gives max revenue of £160,000 .  I'm wondering if its actually cheaper to develop models in die cast rather than plastic, although cant see how .  Most Dublo models seem to have limited production runs of 500, although its certainly true that the tooling is used to bring out a different version the next year so I suppose it could stretch to 1000s of models , and of course the chassis is already in use for the plastic model . But the same is not true of the Deltic.  Really love to know the costings and return on this , but of course never will . 

Good to know that I'm not the only one who can't make economic sense of this.   The tooling theoretically would be little different assuming that it will be diecast. (not so expensive if 3-D printed I presume).  There's plenty of metal diecasting going on in China for the automotive industry (Kader have a factory in that business) and, for example, I believe that Mercedes buy diecast metal components from China.  

 

So no doubt a degree of choice in the diecasting market.  But the model still has to be designed, assembled, and decorated so many of the production costs won't be much different from a plastic model even if a metal body might(??) cost less to manufacture.  The DP1 body is no use for the production version so the tooling can't be used for anything else.  So unless they're planning future runs (quite a few future runs) I still can't see how they will recover the investment even allowing for ex-factory cost and their direct sale margin.

 

But then I equally wonder about some of their other investment decisions and the expected rate of recovering the cost of them ex specially as they might well have used borrowed money to finance the investment (having borrowed so much in their current fiscal year).  I appreciate that probably a lot of that money has gone towards TT120 but even allowing for potentially lower costs of using a smaller scale and a helping of more clever design to reduce assembly costs their TT120 pricing seems likely to produce a lower margin than 00 even before you throw in the various discounts.   And while its only going via direct sales that will inevitably create more complex distribution (which will cost more I presume) and the need to have both a selling organisation and to support the product directly. 

[GordonC]

21 minutes ago, Ian Hargrave said:

Bachmann have issued two releases of DP1 and not several. Other versions ( of production Deltics D9000-D9021 ) are of a quite separate tooling. FWIW,Hornby are still more than capable of pulling out all the stops and producing a first class product as witnessed by the new 9F and by models in development such as the Standard 78xxx etc.

 

No, there have been several releases of the same Bachmann tooling in a variety of conditions (pristine and weathered, East and West Coast livery variations and a twin pack with D9002 in a wooden box). I'm quite aware of the differences between DP1 and production Deltics.

 

Deltic DP1 Catalogue numbers look like

       32-520

       32-520A (Weathered)

       32-521NRM

       32-522NRM (Weathered)

       32-523NRM

       32-523NRMA (West Coast)

       32-524NRM (Twin pack with D9002)

 

Some photos

https://www.hattons.co.uk/63528/bachmann_branchline_32_520_blue_english_electric_co_ltd_prototype_no_1_deltic_in_deltic_blue_livery_as_pres/stockdetail

https://www.hattons.co.uk/68103/bachmann_branchline_32_521nrmln_blue_english_electric_co_ltd_prototype_no_1_deltic_diesel_locomotive_in_deltic_b/stockdetail

https://www.hattons.co.uk/101521/bachmann_branchline_32_522nrma_prototype_deltic_co_co_in_er_blue_weathered_nrm_special_edition/stockdetail

 

So how many have been released with each one isn't entirely obvious but https://www.modelrailforum.com/threads/Bachmann-nrm-prototype-deltic.54199/ looks like the initial releases and suggests 500 in comemorative packaging, 2500 standard limited edition, 1000 standard limited edition and 300 in wooden boxes but there isn't any mention of weathered ones there and that looks like up to November 2008 and there have certainly been releases since then. Even taking a lower figure of 300 for each of the later releases you'd still have over 5000 DP1 models already produced and out in the market diluting demand for a new one.

[JSpencer]

1 hour ago, The Stationmaster said:

But then I equally wonder about some of their other investment decisions and the expected rate of recovering the cost of them ex specially as they might well have used borrowed money to finance the investment (having borrowed so much in their current fiscal year).  I appreciate that probably a lot of that money has gone towards TT120 but even allowing for potentially lower costs of using a smaller scale and a helping of more clever design to reduce assembly costs their TT120 pricing seems likely to produce a lower margin than 00 even before you throw in the various discounts.   And while its only going via direct sales that will inevitably create more complex distribution (which will cost more I presume) and the need to have both a selling organisation and to support the product directly. 

 

In this day and age, Hornby need to recover costs in the first run. Re-runs seem to take a long time to organize. Even if they save the prettiest livery for run two (normally done to try and get a second sale from those who brought one in run one), by the time it appears, people have forgotten or have moved on to the next all-new model (and there are a lot of all-new coming out these days). We then often see run two in the bargain bin.

Now this almost certainly does not happen all the time, but we have seen enough cases with Hornby that it is no wonder they have money problems.

New comers are whacking a huge range of colours from day 1, including the prettiest.

They sold 500. Could do they another spin for another 500 next year? maybe but they really need things that will bring in money.

 

I suspect the subtle game changer (something that will turn Hornby around) probably won't be Dublo nor TT but instead could be HM7000. Will there be enough chips to sell though???

[RedgateModels]

40 minutes ago, JSpencer said:

I suspect the subtle game changer (something that will turn Hornby around) probably won't be Dublo nor TT but instead could be HM7000. Will there be enough chips to sell though???

 

No, the question is will there be enough chips to fit to the decoder PCBs

[rogerzilla]

Or it could be the new Zero 1!

[Robin Brasher]

The 'Hornby Dublo' Deltic is DCC fitted for use with Hornby's new Zero 1 called HM7000.

 

There is nothing to stop Hornby producing a limited run of DCC ready Deltics next year either in a 'Hornby Dublo' or Hornby box.

[adb968008]

Maybe at the back of their mind is Bachmanns product age…

 

DP1.. was released in 2007, its 16 years old now.

Clearly the volumes sold above suggest it stands on its feet as much as any other model and they want a piece of it.

 

I’m no fan of duplication, I feel much is unneccesary, but Maybe Hornbys looking at Locomotions exclusivity of this model, and thinking “me too” for the wider market in the same way they duplicate anything else ?

 

Imagine what discussions we would be having now, had Hornby put up a Class 50 in Dublo at £320 ?

 

I cant think of many diesels, not even the HST that would stand that price, regardless if it were metal.

 

However had they made a prototype HST power car, on their existing chassis, and spun it with mk3’s in grey/blue i’d no doubt they’d flown out of the door.

Edited January 17, 2023 by adb968008

[Michael Hodgson]

So why don't they call it Zero 2?

[RyanN91]

Well it's unavailable now. Only stock alerts via Hornby. It only specified 500 in the catalogue. Inless I didn't read the product description properly on the website. Although perhaps doubtful I don't know if they are inundated with stock alerts for the Dublo Deltic they could and a huge COULD produce another 500 possibly I don't know I could be wrong or bucking up the wrong tree! And of course there is always what if more than 500 people originally wanted one? 

[Steamport Southport]

4 hours ago, GordonC said:

 

Its worse than that, £320 would include VAT so even selling direct Hornby would only be getting £265 per model or £132,500 in total but that includes manufacturing costs, shipping and potentially DCC Sound chips (if it does include that, there seemed to be some debate).

 

Perhaps they are recovering costs already spent in the past so not entirely starting from scratch with it. Had the Bachmann model not existed, it would make perfect sense to release it, but Bachmann have already released several production runs including minor livery variations and could quite easily push the button to make more so that has to narrow sales potential for Hornby surely. I just cant see 'die-cast' and 'Hornby Dublo' label on the box being enough of a differentiator compared to the already excellent Bachmann Deltic.

 

You've got to think of the Hornby Dublo market as more like the Wrenn collectors back in the 1970s and 1980s. These are the people who would have paid £100 for a CR liveried 4MT 2-6-4T in 1980 when you could buy five Mainline tender locomotives for the same price. It wasn't even the correct type of 4MT 2-6-4T.

 

They don't want Bachmann, Rapido or Accurascale. They are collecting one thing. I'm afraid most will never see a layout.

 

If you don't understand collectors, then you never will. Collectors are those that will pay three million dollars for a Superman comic rather than the many reprints you can pick up for $5. Then put it in a bank vault for safe keeping.

 

The Hornby Dublo range is just Wrenn for the 2020s.

 

Jason

[Bernard Lamb]

17 minutes ago, Steamport Southport said:

 

 

 

The Hornby Dublo range is just Wrenn for the 2020s.

 

Jason

Which is exactly why they have to expoit the situation in the next few years, The group of punters sitting on wads of cash is soon going to go into decline, if not free fall.

Bernard

[JohnR]

22 minutes ago, Steamport Southport said:

 

You've got to think of the Hornby Dublo market as more like the Wrenn collectors back in the 1970s and 1980s. These are the people who would have paid £100 for a CR liveried 4MT 2-6-4T in 1980 when you could buy five Mainline tender locomotives for the same price. It wasn't even the correct type of 4MT 2-6-4T.

 

They don't want Bachmann, Rapido or Accurascale. They are collecting one thing. I'm afraid most will never see a layout.

 

If you don't understand collectors, then you never will. Collectors are those that will pay three million dollars for a Superman comic rather than the many reprints you can pick up for $5. Then put it in a bank vault for safe keeping.

 

The Hornby Dublo range is just Wrenn for the 2020s.

 

Jason

 

Then why arnt Hornby charging more. To be honest, the market can bear it (the market for these not really being modellers such as ourselves, but the "collectors" as you say). 

[Phil Parker]

5 minutes ago, JohnR said:

 

Then why arnt Hornby charging more. To be honest, the market can bear it (the market for these not really being modellers such as ourselves, but the "collectors" as you say). 

 

From your detailed assesment of the market, how much should they charge?

[JohnR]

4 minutes ago, Phil Parker said:

 

From your detailed assesment of the market, how much should they charge?

 

From my knowledge  of such collectors, Hornby could charge £400 or even more for something like this. Even £500. We've seen how much some people will pay for even "normal" models if they are a limited edition (the QE2 Bulleid pacific is a case in point). 

[JSpencer]

1 hour ago, Michael Hodgson said:

So why don't they call it Zero 2?

 

Seeing as they have the license then maybe Zero Zero Seven.

(But be we are drifting off the Deltic thread).

['CHARD]

54 minutes ago, JSpencer said:

 

Seeing as they have the license then maybe Nine Zero Zero Seven.

(But be we are drifting off the Deltic thread).

 

There, fixed it for you, back on topic (ish).

[jjb1970]

Well, that's me missed out then. 

[jjb1970]

Collecting really is a different hobby from railway modelling. Because model train collectors and railway modellers share an interest in the same products and a hobby derived from a passion for similar underlying interests (transportation, trains, rail travel, big stuff etc) the two hobbies get conflated but they're not the same. Modellers may find collectors a bit bonkers but many people from outside the model hobby feel the same about modellers. As others have said, it is a passion which people understand or don't understand but it is what it is and manufacturers benefit from the collector segment which is also good for modellers.

[Covkid]

On 10/01/2023 at 08:43, darrel said:

I don't understand this one from Hornby a one off prototype that only carried one livery. A model that has already been done by Bachmann and done extremely well. If you want a model of deltic chances are you have already bought the Bachmann one. Which is also much cheaper.

 

Instead of wasting all the development costs they could have done something else Instead something with more livery variations that they could sell more of. 

If they wanted to do a prototype loco they could have done the prototype HST power car. If they wanted to duplicate a Bachmann model they could have done a class 47 there are enough livery variations to make that worthwhile. 

This seems a bizarre decision by Hornby. 

 

I totally understand Darrel and agree with you.

I have never wanted a DP1, and even if I did it would have been the Bachmann version because of it's reputation and reviews.  The mention of possibly incorporating smoke does nothing for me as smoke and moving water do not scale down.

 

However, would Hornby have the confidence to go "Rapido style" and offer limited edition models in "what if" liveries like Intercity and BR blue ?  A bit of a risk, but perhaps a way of squeezing a few shekels out of the dies.